This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.47
1.86
1.50
1.88
1.44
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.52
1.75
1.58
1.67
1.47
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.8%
1-0
5.4%
2-0
5.3%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
4.9%
MTK Budapest goals ↓
Paks goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.1%
4.9%
2.6%
1.0%
1
5.4%
11%
8.2%
4.3%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.5%
6.8%
3.6%
1.4%
3
2.9%
4.7%
3.7%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.2%
1.9%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MTK Budapest goals (down), columns = Paks goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.09
Puskas Academy
2.00
Paks
1.73
Gyori ETO FC
1.61
MTK Budapest
1.39
Diosgyori VTK
1.33
Ujpest
1.24
Nyiregyhaza
1.09
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.03
Debreceni VSC
1.03
Fehérvár FC
0.94
Kecskeméti TE
0.76
MTK Budapest is 0.33 points worse than Paks in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
1.97
Ferencvarosi TC
1.94
Puskas Academy
1.76
MTK Budapest
1.61
Debreceni VSC
1.58
Gyori ETO FC
1.48
Diosgyori VTK
1.30
Ujpest
1.15
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.06
Fehérvár FC
1.03
Kecskeméti TE
0.94
Nyiregyhaza
0.94
MTK Budapest is 0.36 goals worse than Paks in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
0.94
Gyori ETO FC
1.12
Puskas Academy
1.15
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.27
Ujpest
1.33
Paks
1.42
MTK Budapest
1.42
Diosgyori VTK
1.55
Fehérvár FC
1.58
Nyiregyhaza
1.58
Kecskeméti TE
1.61
Debreceni VSC
1.79
MTK Budapest and Paks are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
62%
MTK Budapest
55%
Ujpest
51%
Puskas Academy
50%
Debreceni VSC
50%
Paks
48%
Kecskeméti TE
47%
Diosgyori VTK
47%
Fehérvár FC
46%
Zalaegerszegi TE
44%
MTK Budapest is 6.6 percentage points better than Paks in terms of average possession (55% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
MTK Budapest
For 3.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paks
For 6.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MTK Budapest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.2
9.9
3.0
2.6
3.3
22.9
24.2
21.6
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
10.0
10.0
2.5
2.7
2.0
23.7
24.5
22.0
vs Similar (42)
8.8
7.7
9.8
3.1
2.6
3.5
22.6
24.7
20.6
vs Weaker (4)
11.5
10.0
13.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
26.0
18.0
34.0
% over line
46%
32%
60%
36%
29%
42%
57%
71%
43%
% under line
54%
68%
40%
64%
71%
58%
43%
29%
57%
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.2
12.1
3.9
3.9
4.0
27.6
28.8
26.5
vs Stronger (3)
11.3
11.5
11.0
6.7
6.5
7.0
31.3
32.5
29.0
vs Similar (43)
11.6
10.9
12.2
3.8
3.6
4.0
26.9
28.1
25.7
vs Weaker (4)
12.3
13.0
11.0
3.2
4.5
2.0
33.0
31.0
35.0
% over line
72%
70%
75%
58%
58%
58%
85%
88%
82%
% under line
28%
30%
25%
42%
42%
42%
15%
12%
18%
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
11.6
Debreceni VSC
10.2
Diosgyori VTK
10.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
10.1
Fehérvár FC
9.9
Kecskeméti TE
9.4
Ferencvarosi TC
9.3
Ujpest
9.3
Puskas Academy
9.1
MTK Budapest
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Puskas Academy
5.0
Paks
4.8
Kecskeméti TE
4.8
Debreceni VSC
4.7
Fehérvár FC
4.7
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Diosgyori VTK
4.5
Ujpest
4.3
Zalaegerszegi TE
4.1
MTK Budapest
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Puskas Academy
27.8
Paks
27.6
Debreceni VSC
26.9
Kecskeméti TE
26.3
Ferencvarosi TC
25.3
Ujpest
25.3
Diosgyori VTK
25.0
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.0
MTK Budapest
22.9
Fehérvár FC
22.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.3%
Under 9.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.8%
Under 3.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.7%
Under 21.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.87
0.93
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.84
0.83
0.75
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.86
0.64
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.74
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.68
0.75
0.67
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.00
0.86
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.00
0.78
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
MTK Budapest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marin Jurina40%
Zsombor Gruber25%
Rajmund Molnár23%
Benedek Varju18%
Róbert Polievka17%
Viktor Hei12%
Márk Kosznovszky10%
István Bognár9%
Ilia Beriashvili8%
Krisztián Németh6%
Bence Végh5%
Tamás Kádár5%
Patrik Kovács5%
Artúr Horváth5%
Nemanja Antonov0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Zsombor Nagy0%
Dávid Bobál0%
Mihály Kata0%
Zoltán Stieber0%
Gergő Szőke0%
Noel Kenesei0%
Ádin Molnár0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dávid Bobál40%
Mihály Kata33%
Márk Kosznovszky30%
Tamás Kádár29%
Zsombor Nagy25%
Patrik Kovács24%
Benedek Varju24%
Rajmund Molnár23%
Nemanja Antonov20%
Viktor Hei18%
Marin Jurina12%
Krisztián Németh12%
Ádin Molnár10%
István Bognár9%
Ilia Beriashvili8%
Zoltán Stieber7%
Bence Végh5%
Artúr Horváth5%
Patrik Demjén0%
Róbert Polievka0%
Zsombor Gruber0%
Gergő Szőke0%
Noel Kenesei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
István Bognár23%
Artúr Horváth18%
Viktor Hei18%
Rajmund Molnár14%
Zoltán Stieber13%
Zsombor Gruber12%
Nemanja Antonov10%
Márk Kosznovszky10%
Ádin Molnár10%
Tamás Kádár10%
Patrik Kovács5%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Zsombor Nagy0%
Dávid Bobál0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Krisztián Németh0%
Marin Jurina0%
Róbert Polievka0%
Bence Végh0%
Gergő Szőke0%
Noel Kenesei0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rajmund Molnár32%
Marin Jurina28%
István Bognár18%
Zsombor Gruber12%
Róbert Polievka11%
Krisztián Németh6%
Tamás Kádár0%
Nemanja Antonov0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Zsombor Nagy0%
Dávid Bobál0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Zoltán Stieber0%
Viktor Hei0%
Márk Kosznovszky0%
Artúr Horváth0%
Bence Végh0%
Gergő Szőke0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Noel Kenesei0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Paks
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dániel Böde41%
Barna Tóth31%
József Windecker26%
Martin Ádám25%
Norbert Könyves25%
Kristóf Hinora22%
Bence Ötvös21%
Bálint Szabó20%
Gergő Gyurkits12%
Attila Osváth11%
Szabolcs Mezei8%
Kristóf Papp8%
Bence Lenzsér7%
János Szabó6%
Erik Silye4%
Bálint Vécsei4%
Ádám Kovácsik0%
Roland Varga0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Péter Szappanos0%
Balázs Balogh0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
Dávid Zimonyi0%
Gabor Vas0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Krisztián Kovács0%
Kevin Horváth0%
Milán Győrfi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bence Lenzsér53%
Krisztián Kovács50%
Ákos Kinyik30%
Bence Ötvös28%
József Windecker26%
Martin Ádám25%
Milán Győrfi22%
Kevin Horváth15%
Gergő Gyurkits12%
Szabolcs Mezei12%
Kristóf Hinora11%
Attila Osváth11%
Gabor Vas11%
Dávid Zimonyi10%
Zsolt Haraszti9%
Kristóf Papp8%
Erik Silye8%
Bálint Vécsei4%
Barna Tóth3%
Dániel Böde3%
Ádám Kovácsik0%
Bálint Szabó0%
Roland Varga0%
Péter Szappanos0%
Balázs Balogh0%
János Szabó0%
Norbert Könyves0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Szabolcs Mezei28%
Milán Győrfi22%
Kristóf Papp20%
József Windecker17%
Martin Ádám12%
Roland Varga12%
Gergő Gyurkits12%
Attila Osváth11%
Bence Ötvös10%
Barna Tóth10%
Dávid Zimonyi10%
Balázs Balogh9%
Zsolt Haraszti9%
Bálint Vécsei7%
Erik Silye4%
Dániel Böde3%
Ádám Kovácsik0%
Bálint Szabó0%
Kristóf Hinora0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Péter Szappanos0%
Bence Lenzsér0%
János Szabó0%
Norbert Könyves0%
Gabor Vas0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Krisztián Kovács0%
Kevin Horváth0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Barna Tóth28%
Attila Osváth15%
Dániel Böde14%
Gergő Gyurkits12%
Bálint Vécsei11%
Bence Ötvös10%
Zsolt Haraszti9%
József Windecker4%
Kristóf Papp4%
Ádám Kovácsik0%
Bálint Szabó0%
Martin Ádám0%
Kristóf Hinora0%
Szabolcs Mezei0%
Roland Varga0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Péter Szappanos0%
Erik Silye0%
Balázs Balogh0%
Bence Lenzsér0%
János Szabó0%
Norbert Könyves0%
Dávid Zimonyi0%
Gabor Vas0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Krisztián Kovács0%
Kevin Horváth0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
ZT (23)
€5m
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
MTK Budapest's squad is €3m more valuable than Paks's (€11m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
MTK Budapest and Paks have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
DV (4)
€1m
KT (2)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
MTK Budapest's midfield is €2m more valuable than Paks's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
ZT (10)
€2m
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MTK Budapest's defence is €1m more valuable than Paks's (€5m vs €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ferencvarosi TC
Puskas Academy
Gyori ETO FC
Diosgyori VTK
Ujpest
Nyiregyhaza
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE
Fehérvár FC
Kecskeméti TE