This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.57
2.07
2.00
1.75
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
2.00
1.67
2.18
2.36
1.85
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
5.7%
0-2 ✓
5.6%
1-0
5.2%
0-0
5.1%
MTK Budapest goals ↓
Paks goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.7%
5.6%
3.1%
1.3%
1
5.2%
11%
8.6%
4.8%
2.0%
2
4.8%
8.0%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.5%
4.2%
3.5%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MTK Budapest goals (down), columns = Paks goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.09
Ferencvarosi TC
2.06
Paks
1.61
Debreceni VSC
1.61
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.39
Ujpest
1.21
Kisvarda FC
1.21
Nyiregyhaza
1.21
MTK Budapest
1.15
Diosgyori VTK
0.85
Kazincbarcikai
0.67
MTK Budapest is 0.45 points worse than Paks in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.97
Paks
1.91
MTK Budapest
1.67
Debreceni VSC
1.55
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.48
Ujpest
1.45
Nyiregyhaza
1.42
Puskas Academy
1.30
Diosgyori VTK
1.18
Kisvarda FC
1.09
Kazincbarcikai
0.94
MTK Budapest is 0.24 goals worse than Paks in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.91
Ferencvarosi TC
0.94
Debreceni VSC
1.24
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Puskas Academy
1.30
Paks
1.39
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Ujpest
1.73
Nyiregyhaza
1.73
MTK Budapest
1.88
Diosgyori VTK
1.97
Kazincbarcikai
2.12
MTK Budapest is 0.48 goals worse than Paks in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
55%
Ujpest
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE
51%
Debreceni VSC
50%
MTK Budapest
49%
Kisvarda FC
49%
Paks
47%
Diosgyori VTK
46%
Puskas Academy
44%
MTK Budapest is 2.0 percentage points better than Paks in terms of average possession (49% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
MTK Budapest
For 4.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paks
For 6.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.4 · Against 14.6 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MTK Budapest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.4
10.5
3.2
3.2
3.1
25.1
24.8
25.3
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
10.7
11.0
2.3
4.0
0.7
24.2
25.0
23.0
vs Similar (41)
9.9
9.2
10.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
25.2
24.8
25.5
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
63%
48%
50%
46%
74%
75%
74%
% under line
43%
50%
37%
52%
50%
54%
26%
25%
26%
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
12.0
9.8
3.4
3.8
3.1
29.5
29.7
29.2
vs Stronger (6)
11.6
11.7
11.5
5.0
5.7
4.3
29.4
30.7
27.5
vs Similar (42)
10.7
12.1
9.6
3.4
3.7
3.0
29.5
29.5
29.4
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
61%
67%
56%
50%
52%
48%
87%
80%
94%
% under line
39%
33%
44%
50%
48%
52%
13%
20%
6%
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.7
Diosgyori VTK
10.2
Ferencvarosi TC
10.0
Kisvarda FC
10.0
Debreceni VSC
9.9
Ujpest
9.8
Puskas Academy
9.7
MTK Budapest
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.3
Gyori ETO FC
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Debreceni VSC
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Puskas Academy
5.1
Gyori ETO FC
5.0
Paks
5.0
Ujpest
4.9
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
Diosgyori VTK
4.6
MTK Budapest
4.4
Kisvarda FC
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.3
Puskas Academy
28.0
Debreceni VSC
27.9
Ferencvarosi TC
27.7
Gyori ETO FC
26.5
Diosgyori VTK
26.2
Ujpest
25.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.3
MTK Budapest
24.5
Kisvarda FC
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.1%
Under 9.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
76.2%
Under 3.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.2%
Under 21.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
1.06
1.25
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.92
1.17
1.25
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.71
0.71
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.58
0.82
0.91
0.92
0.31
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.00
1.31
0.69
0.93
1.36
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.92
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.00
1.36
1.29
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.08
1.36
1.45
0.92
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
MTK Budapest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rajmund Molnár50%
Gábor Jurek33%
Ádin Molnár29%
István Átrok27%
Zalán Kerezsi25%
Péter Törőcsik20%
István Bognár14%
Róbert Polievka13%
Adrian Zeljković10%
Hunor Németh10%
Benedek Varju7%
Krisztián Németh5%
Mihály Kata5%
Artúr Horváth5%
Tamás Kádár0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
János Szépe0%
Zsombor Bévárdi0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Jakub Plšek0%
Marin Jurina0%
Krisztián Hegyi0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Viktor Vitályos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mihály Kata35%
Patrik Kovács30%
Rajmund Molnár25%
Jakub Plšek21%
Krisztián Németh21%
Ilia Beriashvili18%
Benedek Varju14%
István Bognár14%
Hunor Németh14%
János Szépe13%
Vilius Armalas12%
Ádin Molnár12%
Marin Jurina11%
Adrian Zeljković10%
Zalán Kerezsi10%
Artúr Horváth10%
Tamás Kádár8%
Viktor Vitályos8%
István Átrok5%
Zsombor Bévárdi0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Róbert Polievka0%
Péter Törőcsik0%
Krisztián Hegyi0%
Gábor Jurek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
István Bognár36%
Krisztián Németh16%
Patrik Kovács15%
Jakub Plšek14%
Róbert Polievka13%
Vilius Armalas12%
Ádin Molnár12%
Gábor Jurek11%
Marin Jurina11%
István Átrok9%
Benedek Varju7%
Artúr Horváth5%
Hunor Németh5%
Tamás Kádár0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
János Szépe0%
Zsombor Bévárdi0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Mihály Kata0%
Péter Törőcsik0%
Krisztián Hegyi0%
Rajmund Molnár0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Zalán Kerezsi0%
Viktor Vitályos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rajmund Molnár75%
Marin Jurina21%
Ádin Molnár21%
Zalán Kerezsi15%
István Bognár14%
Vilius Armalas12%
István Átrok9%
Róbert Polievka7%
Hunor Németh5%
Tamás Kádár0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
János Szépe0%
Zsombor Bévárdi0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Krisztián Németh0%
Jakub Plšek0%
Péter Törőcsik0%
Krisztián Hegyi0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Artúr Horváth0%
Gábor Jurek0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Viktor Vitályos0%
Paks
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dániel Böde33%
János Hahn28%
János Galambos25%
Gergő Gyurkits19%
Milán Pető18%
József Windecker17%
Barna Tóth16%
Ákos Szendrei14%
Erik Silye12%
János Szabó12%
Kevin Horváth12%
Martin Ádám9%
Balázs Balogh8%
Attila Osváth6%
Bence Lenzsér6%
Márió Zeke5%
Bálint Vécsei5%
Kristóf Papp5%
Ádám Kovácsik0%
Kristóf Hinora0%
Zsombor Bévárdi0%
Gabor Vas0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
Áron Alaxai0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Márk Gyetván0%
Csaba Máté0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ákos Kinyik46%
Milán Szekszárdi45%
Zsombor Bévárdi33%
Áron Alaxai33%
Kristóf Papp32%
Bence Lenzsér29%
Attila Osváth25%
Gergő Gyurkits19%
Martin Ádám18%
Dániel Böde17%
Kevin Horváth16%
Barna Tóth16%
Balázs Balogh15%
Zsolt Haraszti14%
János Szabó12%
János Hahn12%
Bálint Vécsei10%
Milán Pető9%
Kristóf Hinora8%
Ákos Szendrei7%
Márió Zeke5%
Ádám Kovácsik4%
Gabor Vas0%
Erik Silye0%
József Windecker0%
Márk Gyetván0%
János Galambos0%
Csaba Máté0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barna Tóth16%
Balázs Balogh15%
Zsolt Haraszti14%
Ákos Szendrei14%
Erik Silye12%
Zsombor Bévárdi11%
Dániel Böde11%
Márió Zeke11%
Gergő Gyurkits10%
Kristóf Papp9%
Milán Pető9%
József Windecker9%
Ákos Kinyik8%
János Szabó6%
Kevin Horváth4%
Ádám Kovácsik0%
Martin Ádám0%
Kristóf Hinora0%
Gabor Vas0%
Attila Osváth0%
Bence Lenzsér0%
János Hahn0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Áron Alaxai0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Márk Gyetván0%
János Galambos0%
Csaba Máté0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Barna Tóth42%
Gergő Gyurkits14%
Zsombor Bévárdi11%
János Hahn8%
Kevin Horváth8%
Ákos Szendrei7%
Attila Osváth6%
János Szabó6%
Bálint Vécsei5%
Kristóf Papp5%
Ádám Kovácsik0%
Martin Ádám0%
Kristóf Hinora0%
Gabor Vas0%
Dániel Böde0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Erik Silye0%
Balázs Balogh0%
Bence Lenzsér0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
József Windecker0%
Márió Zeke0%
Áron Alaxai0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Márk Gyetván0%
Milán Pető0%
János Galambos0%
Csaba Máté0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
DV (18)
€3m
KAZ (19)
€2m
MTK Budapest's squad is €3m more valuable than Paks's (€11m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
DV (5)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
MTK Budapest and Paks have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
DV (4)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
MTK Budapest's midfield is €2m more valuable than Paks's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
DV (9)
€1m
KAZ (8)
€1m
MTK Budapest's defence is €1m more valuable than Paks's (€5m vs €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gyori ETO FC
Ferencvarosi TC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE
Puskas Academy
Ujpest
Nyiregyhaza
Kisvarda FC
Diosgyori VTK
Kazincbarcikai