This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.62
1.00
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.15
1.55
0.91
1.56
1.44
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
1.30
1.80
1.20
1.00
1.40
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.9%
0-1
10.0%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.5%
Nacional goals ↓
Academico Viseu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10.0%
6.7%
2.6%
0.8%
1
9.8%
14%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.5%
7.7%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.5%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nacional goals (down), columns = Academico Viseu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Nacional is 0.41 points worse than Academico Viseu in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Nacional is 0.47 goals worse than Academico Viseu in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Nacional is 0.03 goals worse than Academico Viseu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Nacional is 5.2 percentage points worse than Academico Viseu in terms of average possession (46% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nacional
For 4.5 · Against 7.8 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Academico Viseu
For 3.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
12.3
10.9
4.5
4.2
4.7
29.9
29.2
30.5
vs Stronger (10)
8.9
8.0
10.2
4.9
4.2
6.0
29.4
30.2
28.2
vs Similar (40)
12.5
14.3
11.1
4.4
4.2
4.5
30.0
28.7
31.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
79%
71%
70%
71%
69%
88%
84%
90%
% under line
25%
21%
29%
30%
29%
31%
12%
16%
10%
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
11.2
11.8
10.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
27.1
26.4
27.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
11.4
12.1
10.6
4.6
4.3
4.8
26.9
26.7
27.2
vs Weaker (10)
10.9
10.7
11.0
5.1
5.6
4.6
27.5
25.7
29.3
% over line
67%
75%
58%
64%
65%
62%
91%
92%
91%
% under line
33%
25%
42%
36%
35%
38%
9%
8%
9%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Leixoes
11.4
Estrela
11.4
Nacional
11.3
Academico Viseu
11.2
FC Porto B
10.9
Oliveirense
10.8
Farense
10.7
Benfica B
10.6
Penafiel
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.5
Vilafranquense
10.2
Feirense
10.1
Belenenses
10.1
Moreirense
9.9
Tondela
9.8
Mafra
9.6
Torreense
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Oliveirense
7.0
Belenenses
6.5
Academico Viseu
6.5
Leixoes
6.5
Tondela
6.2
Estrela
6.2
Farense
6.1
FC Porto B
5.9
Moreirense
5.8
Torreense
5.7
Nacional
5.5
Vilafranquense
5.5
SC Covilha
5.4
Benfica B
5.4
Penafiel
5.2
Mafra
5.2
Feirense
4.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
33.5
Farense
32.6
Trofense
32.5
Oliveirense
32.4
Penafiel
30.5
Belenenses
30.5
Nacional
30.1
Vilafranquense
29.9
Tondela
29.9
Leixoes
28.6
Estrela
28.3
SC Covilha
28.2
Torreense
28.1
Moreirense
28.0
FC Porto B
27.3
Academico Viseu
27.1
Mafra
26.5
Benfica B
25.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
70.6%
Under 9.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.6%
Under 3.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.9%
Under 21.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.43
0.50
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.25
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.69
0.17
0.58
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.62
0.62
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.75
0.55
0.55
1.11
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.81
0.58
0.75
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
1.00
0.38
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.40
1.00
0.36
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 9.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nacional · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Academico Viseu · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
André Clóvis50%
Soufiane Messeguem25%
Robinho0%
André Ceitil0%
Anthony Correia0%
Ewerton0%
Cihan Kahraman0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
João Guilherme0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Alejandro Mestanza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
André Ceitil67%
Anthony Correia50%
Álvaro Zamora33%
Nikolaos Michelis33%
Cihan Kahraman25%
Soufiane Messeguem25%
Alejandro Mestanza25%
Robinho0%
André Clóvis0%
Ewerton0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
João Guilherme0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Robinho25%
Anthony Correia25%
Cihan Kahraman25%
André Ceitil0%
André Clóvis0%
Ewerton0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Soufiane Messeguem0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
João Guilherme0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Alejandro Mestanza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Clóvis25%
João Guilherme25%
Robinho0%
André Ceitil0%
Anthony Correia0%
Ewerton0%
Cihan Kahraman0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Soufiane Messeguem0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Alejandro Mestanza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
OLI (7)
€1m
Nacional's squad is €3m more valuable than Academico Viseu's (€20m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Nacional's attack is €2m less valuable than Academico Viseu's (€6m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
MOR (8)
€8m
FPB (6)
€7m
NAC (8)
€5m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Nacional's midfield is €3m more valuable than Academico Viseu's (€5m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
EST (11)
€11m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
Nacional's defence is €3m more valuable than Academico Viseu's (€9m vs €6m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Moreirense
Farense
Estrela
FC Porto B
Mafra
Feirense
Vilafranquense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Penafiel
Benfica B
Belenenses
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense