This opponent (Boavista) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.20
0.80
1.07
0.73
1.33
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
1.37
0.70
1.10
0.78
1.67
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.91
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.5%
@ 2.54+2.4%
Under 2.5
60.5%
@ 1.50-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.7%
0-1
9.0%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.1%
Nacional goals ↓
Boavista goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.0%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.4%
8.4%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.6%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nacional goals (down), columns = Boavista goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.50
FC Porto
2.35
Benfica
2.24
SC Braga
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.56
Santa Clara
1.35
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.26
Famalicao
1.18
Belenenses
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Boavista
1.06
Portimonense
1.03
Maritimo
1.03
Rio Ave
1.00
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.74
Nacional is 0.32 points worse than Boavista in terms of average points per game (0.74 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.03
Sporting CP
1.91
SC Braga
1.56
Santa Clara
1.29
Famalicao
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.18
Boavista
1.15
Moreirense
1.09
Guimaraes
1.09
Tondela
1.06
Portimonense
1.00
GIL Vicente
0.97
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.88
Maritimo
0.79
Rio Ave
0.74
Belenenses
0.74
Nacional is 0.26 goals worse than Boavista in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.59
Benfica
0.79
FC Porto
0.85
SC Braga
0.97
Belenenses
1.03
Santa Clara
1.06
Rio Ave
1.18
Portimonense
1.21
Pacos Ferreira
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.29
Maritimo
1.38
Famalicao
1.41
Farense
1.41
Boavista
1.44
Tondela
1.68
Nacional
1.74
Nacional is 0.29 goals worse than Boavista in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nacional
For 8.1 · Against 5.2 · Total 13.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 15.3 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
For 3.9 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.7 · Against 18.5 · Total 37.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.8
3.5
3.3
3.6
31.5
32.0
31.1
vs Stronger (15)
9.2
8.0
10.4
2.9
3.5
2.4
29.6
29.0
30.2
vs Similar (33)
10.9
10.9
10.8
3.5
2.9
4.1
32.5
33.8
31.1
vs Weaker (2)
14.5
16.0
13.0
8.0
9.0
7.0
31.0
27.0
35.0
% over line
65%
59%
71%
54%
56%
52%
94%
94%
94%
% under line
35%
41%
29%
46%
44%
48%
6%
6%
6%
This opponent (Boavista) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.1
10.7
5.6
6.1
5.1
34.7
35.3
34.1
vs Stronger (28)
10.8
10.7
11.0
5.6
6.5
4.5
34.7
35.6
33.6
vs Similar (22)
11.0
11.8
10.3
5.5
5.4
5.7
34.7
34.9
34.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
64%
60%
82%
84%
80%
98%
100%
96%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
18%
16%
20%
2%
0%
4%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Guimaraes
11.1
Pacos Ferreira
10.9
Boavista
10.9
Santa Clara
10.8
Sporting CP
10.6
Nacional
10.6
Famalicao
10.5
Tondela
10.5
SC Braga
10.5
Benfica
10.4
Moreirense
10.4
Maritimo
10.2
Rio Ave
9.9
Belenenses
9.7
Portimonense
9.5
FC Porto
9.3
GIL Vicente
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sporting CP
6.2
Famalicao
6.1
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
SC Braga
5.7
Boavista
5.6
FC Porto
5.5
Maritimo
5.4
Tondela
5.3
Rio Ave
5.1
Belenenses
5.1
Nacional
5.1
Benfica
5.1
Moreirense
5.0
Santa Clara
4.7
Guimaraes
4.7
Portimonense
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Boavista
34.7
Pacos Ferreira
34.5
GIL Vicente
33.6
Maritimo
33.4
Moreirense
32.7
Portimonense
32.3
Tondela
32.1
Rio Ave
31.8
Sporting CP
31.5
Nacional
31.5
Belenenses
31.4
FC Porto
31.3
Guimaraes
31.2
Famalicao
31.1
Santa Clara
30.9
SC Braga
30.4
Benfica
27.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.2%
Under 9.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.9%
Under 3.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.5%
Under 21.5
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.27
0.40
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.85
0.30
0.40
0.30
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.47
0.33
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
0.68
0.50
0.30
0.22
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.55
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.17
0.47
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
2.38
0.00
1.50
0.50
3.25
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
0.70
0.40
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.33
0.73
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
0.68
0.20
0.80
0.56
0.56
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.36
0.60
0.60
0.17
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nacional · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Boavista · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Onyemaechi17%
Róbert Boženík15%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Vitaliy Lystsov12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Joel Silva7%
Sebastián Pérez3%
Salvador Agra3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Manuel Namora0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Layvin Kurzawa50%
Miguel Reisinho38%
Pedro Gomes33%
Salvador Agra28%
Bruno Onyemaechi28%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Vitaliy Lystsov25%
Sebastián Pérez24%
Ibrahima Camará23%
Sidoine Fogning23%
Osman Kakay22%
Róbert Boženík21%
Marco van Ginkel18%
Joel Silva13%
Steven Vitória12%
Manuel Namora12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Filipe Ferreira11%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Tomáš Vaclík8%
João Barros8%
César Dutra6%
Gonçalo Miguel5%
Moussa Koné0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
Tomás Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Augusto Dabo8%
Salvador Agra6%
Bruno Onyemaechi6%
Joel Silva3%
Róbert Boženík3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík30%
Moussa Koné14%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Salvador Agra6%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP
FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
Pacos Ferreira
Santa Clara
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Belenenses
GIL Vicente
Tondela
Portimonense
Maritimo
Rio Ave
Farense