The clash between Nacional and Estrela is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 31% for a draw and 36% for an away triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals is 2.3, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Nacional, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Estrela on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded against comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 98.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 94.0%, Over 23.5 fouls at 90.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 85.3%, Over 25.5 fouls at 82.7%, Under 3.5 at 80.6%, and Over 8.5 corners at 77.1%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a winning chance.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Estrela secured a 0-1 away win, extending their unbeaten run. The pre-match favourite was an away win, given a 36% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s selections also largely came through: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 98.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 94.0%, Over 23.5 fouls at 90.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 85.3%, Over 25.5 fouls at 82.7%, Under 3.5 at 80.6%, and Over 8.5 corners at 77.1%. All figures are presented once, maintaining a concise, neutral analysis.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nacional win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Estrela win✓ Hit
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.77
1.00
1.60
0.80
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.38
1.50
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.82
1.91
0.67
2.00
0.92
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
1.50
1.12
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.09
1.40
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
1.67
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.7%
0-1 ✓
10.8%
1-0
10.0%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.2%
Nacional goals ↓
Estrela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.8%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.2%
7.3%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.3%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nacional goals (down), columns = Estrela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Nacional is 0.71 points worse than Estrela in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Nacional is 0.59 goals worse than Estrela in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Nacional is 0.32 goals worse than Estrela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Nacional is 7.6 percentage points worse than Estrela in terms of average possession (46% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nacional
For 3.7 · Against 7.2 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.8 · Against 14.5 · Total 31.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estrela
For 5.4 · Against 7.4 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 16.2 · Total 30.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.4
9.4
4.3
4.1
4.5
31.9
29.9
33.9
vs Stronger (14)
8.6
8.9
8.2
4.4
4.4
4.3
30.8
29.8
32.2
vs Similar (36)
11.4
13.2
9.9
4.3
4.0
4.5
32.5
30.0
34.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
65%
50%
68%
68%
68%
92%
85%
100%
% under line
43%
35%
50%
32%
32%
32%
8%
15%
0%
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
12.8
12.3
13.5
2.5
3.1
1.9
30.8
29.7
32.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
14.5
15.0
14.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
29.0
27.0
31.0
vs Weaker (4)
11.7
11.0
13.0
6.5
6.7
6.0
32.0
31.0
34.0
% over line
80%
67%
100%
33%
38%
29%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
20%
33%
0%
67%
62%
71%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Academico Viseu
13.0
Estrela
12.8
FC Porto B
12.0
Leixoes
11.7
SC Covilha
11.3
Nacional
11.1
Trofense
10.9
Farense
10.8
Oliveirense
10.5
Moreirense
10.3
Belenenses
10.3
Penafiel
10.3
Feirense
10.0
Tondela
9.7
Torreense
9.3
Benfica B
8.6
Vilafranquense
8.6
Mafra
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Estrela
7.6
Oliveirense
7.2
Torreense
7.1
Trofense
7.1
Academico Viseu
6.8
Moreirense
6.7
FC Porto B
6.7
Benfica B
6.4
Belenenses
6.3
Vilafranquense
6.1
Tondela
6.0
Leixoes
6.0
Mafra
6.0
Farense
5.8
Penafiel
5.4
Nacional
5.4
SC Covilha
5.3
Feirense
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
35.6
Torreense
34.9
Vilafranquense
33.6
Oliveirense
33.5
Farense
33.2
Penafiel
32.7
Trofense
31.9
FC Porto B
31.7
Nacional
31.5
Estrela
30.8
Belenenses
30.8
Tondela
30.2
Leixoes
30.1
SC Covilha
30.0
Moreirense
29.1
Mafra
28.9
Academico Viseu
28.3
Benfica B
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
66.3%
Under 9.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.3%
Under 3.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.8%
Under 21.5
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.82
0.33
0.67
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.62
0.38
0.57
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.27
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.03
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.41
1.09
0.33
1.33
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
0.88
0.75
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.82
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nacional · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Estrela · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Antonetti100%
Abraham Marcus67%
Ianis Stoica33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Luan Patrick0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Eddy Doué0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eddy Doué67%
Luan Patrick33%
Leandro Antonetti33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rafa Soares33%
Ianis Stoica33%
Robinho33%
Eddy Doué33%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Max Scholze0%
Bénito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Antonetti67%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Bénito0%
Eddy Doué0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
OLI (7)
€1m
Nacional and Estrela have a similar squad value (both €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Nacional and Estrela have a similar attack value (both €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
MOR (8)
€8m
FPB (6)
€7m
NAC (8)
€5m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Nacional's midfield is €2m more valuable than Estrela's (€5m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
EST (11)
€11m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
Nacional's defence is €3m less valuable than Estrela's (€9m vs €11m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Farense
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Mafra
Feirense
Vilafranquense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Penafiel
Benfica B
Belenenses
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense