Nacional are tipped to win, the model’s favourite result, with a 45 % chance of a home victory, 27 % for a draw and 28 % for a Guimaraes win. The match is expected to see about 2.8 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9 % probability. In recent outings Nacional have struggled, coming off a defeat to Guimaraes, while Guimaraes have been on a winless run but just beat Nacional, giving the visitors a slight edge in away form. Nacional average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Guimaraes average 0.75 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded on the road against weaker teams.
The model’s selections are: Over 1.5 fouls (77.7 %), Over 19.5 fouls (94.1 %), Over 21.5 fouls (87.4 %), Over 23.5 fouls (77.0 %), Over 2.5 cards (90.0 %), Over 3.5 cards (77.8 %) and Under 11.5 corners (70.4 %). All selections are marked hit, and each probability is expressed as a percentage.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on as Nacional secured a 2-0 victory over Guimaraes, extending their recent run of wins and draws. The model had chosen a home win with a 45 % probability, and that call was correct. The match delivered the most likely 2-goal total, with Nacional’s 2-0 scoreline fitting the forecast. Every suggested selection materialised: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.1 %, Over 2.5 cards at 90.0 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 87.4 %, Over 3.5 cards at 77.8 %, Over 1.5 goals at 77.7 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 77.0 %, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.4 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and the model’s choices performed flawlessly.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nacional win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied 47.2% · @ 1.95
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.46
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.50
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.43
1.21
1.00
1.56
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.50
0.60
1.20
0.71
1.71
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.35
1.89
1.22
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.37
1.56
1.00
0.86
1.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.17
0.33
2.67
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (13)
1.00
1.31
1.17
0.67
0.86
1.86
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
0.45
2.43
0.57
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 1.71-1.7%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 2.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.7%
2-0 ✓
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.6%
Nacional goals ↓
Guimaraes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.3%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
1
8.7%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.3%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.1%
4.9%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nacional goals (down), columns = Guimaraes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.24
Arouca
1.24
Alverca
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Santa Clara
1.06
Rio Ave
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Tondela
0.82
AVS
0.62
Torreense
0.50
Nacional is 0.24 points worse than Guimaraes in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Alverca
1.03
Rio Ave
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
AVS
0.79
Tondela
0.79
Torreense
0.00
Nacional is 0.06 goals worse than Guimaraes in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
Torreense
1.00
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Casa Pia
1.58
Tondela
1.62
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
AVS
1.97
Nacional is 0.18 goals better than Guimaraes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Torreense
60%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Tondela
44%
Casa Pia
41%
AVS
39%
Nacional is 5.3 percentage points worse than Guimaraes in terms of average possession (46% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nacional
For 5.2 · Against 6.8 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
For 4.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 13.9 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.1
5.3
6.1
4.6
27.3
27.0
27.6
vs Stronger (19)
10.6
11.5
9.9
4.7
5.8
4.0
26.7
27.2
26.3
vs Similar (30)
10.3
10.4
10.2
5.8
6.2
5.4
27.6
26.8
28.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
58%
62%
68%
83%
54%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
32%
17%
46%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.5
8.1
5.0
5.5
4.4
29.2
28.9
29.5
vs Stronger (11)
8.6
8.2
9.0
5.3
7.0
3.8
28.5
28.6
28.5
vs Similar (22)
8.9
9.6
8.1
5.6
6.0
5.2
30.0
28.9
31.1
vs Weaker (17)
9.0
10.1
7.3
4.0
4.2
3.7
28.5
29.0
27.7
% over line
42%
56%
26%
70%
65%
75%
92%
92%
91%
% under line
58%
44%
74%
30%
35%
25%
8%
8%
9%
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
10.0
Torreense
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.4
Arouca
9.2
GIL Vicente
9.2
Estrela
9.0
Guimaraes
9.0
Alverca
8.9
Santa Clara
8.8
Estoril
8.7
FC Porto
8.7
Moreirense
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.1
Casa Pia
5.8
Arouca
5.6
FC Porto
5.5
Estrela
5.5
Nacional
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Benfica
5.4
Torreense
5.3
AVS
5.3
Sporting CP
5.3
Guimaraes
5.2
Tondela
5.2
Rio Ave
5.1
Moreirense
5.1
GIL Vicente
5.0
Alverca
4.9
SC Braga
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.6
Estrela
30.5
Santa Clara
30.4
Moreirense
29.6
Guimaraes
29.2
Casa Pia
29.1
GIL Vicente
28.0
Estoril
27.5
Rio Ave
27.5
Nacional
27.3
Arouca
26.7
FC Porto
26.4
AVS
26.3
Sporting CP
26.2
Benfica
26.1
Tondela
24.6
SC Braga
23.9
Alverca
22.3
Torreense
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.4%
Under 9.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
77.8%
Under 3.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.4%
Under 21.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
0.58
0.00
0.40
0.14
0.71
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.67
0.56
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.38
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.00
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.62
0.17
0.33
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.27
0.86
0.29
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
1.00
0.71
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.92
0.60
0.80
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
1.22
0.67
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.12
0.62
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.83
0.33
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
1.00
0.33
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.18
1.57
0.29
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (22)
€460m
BEN (19)
€288m
SB (35)
€215m
FAM (27)
€109m
GUI (34)
€73m
GV (30)
€61m
EST (26)
€57m
RA (36)
€53m
ALV (32)
€52m
SC (31)
€46m
CP (34)
€34m
ARO (33)
€32m
EST (39)
€29m
MOR (25)
€28m
NAC (32)
€27m
TON (32)
€25m
TOR (32)
€20m
AVS (34)
€19m
Nacional's squad is €47m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€27m vs €73m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (7)
€190m
BEN (6)
€105m
SB (13)
€100m
FAM (11)
€51m
GV (14)
€37m
GUI (12)
€34m
EST (8)
€25m
RA (12)
€21m
ALV (11)
€18m
SC (11)
€17m
NAC (11)
€12m
ARO (11)
€12m
MOR (8)
€10m
CP (11)
€9m
TON (12)
€7m
EST (15)
€7m
TOR (13)
€6m
AVS (12)
€6m
Nacional's attack is €22m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€12m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEN (6)
€93m
SC (4)
€72m
SB (9)
€46m
GUI (8)
€26m
FAM (5)
€17m
ALV (9)
€13m
CP (7)
€10m
EST (5)
€10m
SC (6)
€10m
ARO (7)
€9m
MOR (6)
€8m
AVS (7)
€7m
EST (7)
€7m
RA (7)
€5m
GV (4)
€5m
TOR (6)
€5m
NAC (8)
€4m
TON (6)
€3m
Nacional's midfield is €22m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€4m vs €26m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (11)
€198m
BEN (7)
€90m
SB (13)
€69m
FAM (11)
€41m
RA (17)
€26m
ALV (12)
€22m
EST (13)
€22m
GV (12)
€19m
SC (14)
€19m
EST (17)
€15m
CP (16)
€15m
TON (14)
€15m
GUI (14)
€13m
ARO (15)
€11m
MOR (11)
€10m
NAC (13)
€10m
TOR (13)
€9m
AVS (15)
€7m
Nacional's defence is €2m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€10m vs €13m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
Torreense