This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.23
0.75
1.12
0.64
1.36
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.07
1.00
1.12
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.1%
@ 1.99-6.8%
Under 2.5
58.9%
@ 1.83+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
11.0%
0-2
8.8%
1-2 ✓
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
4.7%
Nacional goals ↓
Rio Ave goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.8%
3.9%
1.3%
1
8.3%
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.7%
6.4%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.6%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nacional goals (down), columns = Rio Ave goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.50
FC Porto
2.35
Benfica
2.24
SC Braga
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.56
Santa Clara
1.35
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.26
Famalicao
1.18
Belenenses
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Boavista
1.06
Portimonense
1.03
Maritimo
1.03
Rio Ave
1.00
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.74
Nacional is 0.26 points worse than Rio Ave in terms of average points per game (0.74 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.03
Sporting CP
1.91
SC Braga
1.56
Santa Clara
1.29
Famalicao
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.18
Boavista
1.15
Moreirense
1.09
Guimaraes
1.09
Tondela
1.06
Portimonense
1.00
GIL Vicente
0.97
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.88
Maritimo
0.79
Rio Ave
0.74
Belenenses
0.74
Nacional is 0.15 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.59
Benfica
0.79
FC Porto
0.85
SC Braga
0.97
Belenenses
1.03
Santa Clara
1.06
Rio Ave
1.18
Portimonense
1.21
Pacos Ferreira
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.29
Maritimo
1.38
Famalicao
1.41
Farense
1.41
Boavista
1.44
Tondela
1.68
Nacional
1.74
Nacional is 0.56 goals worse than Rio Ave in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nacional
For 4.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 16.1 · Total 33.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
For 5.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 17.8 · Total 33.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.4
10.2
5.4
5.2
5.5
32.0
31.2
32.7
vs Stronger (17)
8.9
9.0
8.8
4.3
3.9
4.8
30.6
29.2
32.1
vs Similar (32)
11.6
12.6
10.8
5.8
5.9
5.8
32.8
32.8
32.9
vs Weaker (1)
16.0
16.0
-
9.0
9.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
62%
67%
58%
84%
88%
81%
94%
88%
100%
% under line
38%
33%
42%
16%
12%
19%
6%
12%
0%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.7
10.4
4.5
5.6
3.4
31.0
33.0
29.1
vs Stronger (12)
9.8
9.3
10.6
5.2
6.3
3.8
33.1
35.6
29.6
vs Similar (24)
9.6
9.2
9.9
4.1
5.5
3.0
29.8
32.3
27.7
vs Weaker (14)
11.0
10.9
11.1
4.5
5.0
4.0
31.4
31.6
31.3
% over line
56%
52%
60%
66%
88%
44%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
44%
48%
40%
34%
12%
56%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
10.8
Nacional
10.8
Belenenses
10.3
Santa Clara
10.3
Boavista
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Guimaraes
10.1
Rio Ave
10.0
GIL Vicente
9.8
Sporting CP
9.8
SC Braga
9.7
Moreirense
9.6
Famalicao
9.6
Tondela
9.6
Portimonense
9.5
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
Maritimo
9.1
FC Porto
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Famalicao
6.4
Sporting CP
5.7
Maritimo
5.7
Farense
5.6
Nacional
5.4
FC Porto
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Boavista
5.2
Belenenses
5.2
SC Braga
5.1
Santa Clara
5.0
Tondela
4.9
Pacos Ferreira
4.8
Portimonense
4.7
Benfica
4.6
Rio Ave
4.5
Guimaraes
4.5
GIL Vicente
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
35.2
Boavista
34.4
Sporting CP
33.5
Santa Clara
33.0
Farense
32.8
Pacos Ferreira
32.6
FC Porto
32.4
Portimonense
32.0
Nacional
32.0
Famalicao
31.7
Moreirense
31.6
Guimaraes
31.5
Rio Ave
31.0
Tondela
30.9
Belenenses
30.4
GIL Vicente
30.4
SC Braga
30.2
Benfica
29.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.8%
Under 9.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.9%
Under 3.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
95.1%
Under 21.5
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.36
0.71
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.83
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.61
0.38
0.62
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.25
0.44
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.12
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.71
1.07
0.31
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
1.17
0.88
1.38
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.50
0.69
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.25
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nacional · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Rio Ave · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andreas Ndoj33%
Nelson Abbey33%
Georgios Liavas25%
Tamás Nikitscher25%
Dario Špikić0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Bezerra25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Nacional's squad is €17m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€20m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Nacional's attack is €2m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€6m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Nacional's midfield is €3m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€5m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Nacional's defence is €13m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€9m vs €21m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
Pacos Ferreira
Santa Clara
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Belenenses
GIL Vicente
Boavista
Tondela
Portimonense
Maritimo
Farense