Pythia gives Nancy a 16% win probability against Dunkerque in the France: Ligue 2 on 2026-05-09, with 22% for the draw and 62% for Dunkerque. The model estimates around 3.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (92%), Over 1.5 (83%).
Results analysis
Nancy finished 3-2 against Dunkerque (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 16% home win, 22% draw and 62% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (83%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (92%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nancy win✓ Hit
16.1%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.62
Edge
-18.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.43
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunkerque win✗ Miss
61.9%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.38
Edge
+23.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nancy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.57
0.67
1.73
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.56
1.00
1.60
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.90
1.57
0.50
1.80
1.27
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunkerque
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.17
1.47
0.93
1.67
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.45
1.23
1.45
1.09
1.45
1.36
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.3%
@ 1.70+5.7%
Under 2.5
39.7%
@ 2.04-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.9%
0-1
8.4%
1-3
7.0%
0-3
7.0%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
5.0%
Nancy goals ↓
Dunkerque goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
8.4%
9.9%
7.0%
3.7%
1
3.5%
10%
9.9%
7.0%
3.7%
2
2.2%
4.7%
5.0%
3.5%
1.9%
3
0.7%
1.6%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nancy goals (down), columns = Dunkerque goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
Nancy is 0.25 points worse than Dunkerque in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
Nancy is 0.56 goals worse than Dunkerque in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
Nancy is 0.25 goals worse than Dunkerque in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Nancy is 15.5 percentage points worse than Dunkerque in terms of average possession (42% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nancy
For 4.6 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 17.5 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunkerque
For 4.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nancy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.9
4.0
3.7
4.4
28.7
28.9
28.6
vs Stronger (13)
8.8
9.2
8.6
4.6
4.0
5.1
28.0
27.7
28.3
vs Similar (37)
9.7
8.9
10.4
3.8
3.6
4.1
29.0
29.3
28.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
46%
60%
56%
44%
68%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
47%
54%
40%
44%
56%
32%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunkerque
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
9.2
7.5
3.8
3.8
3.9
26.2
24.7
27.8
vs Stronger (5)
6.8
7.7
5.5
4.0
3.7
4.5
25.2
21.0
31.5
vs Similar (39)
8.9
9.5
8.2
3.8
3.6
3.9
26.0
24.6
27.5
vs Weaker (6)
6.3
8.0
5.5
4.0
5.0
3.5
28.3
30.5
27.2
% over line
31%
46%
17%
56%
64%
48%
83%
79%
88%
% under line
69%
54%
83%
44%
36%
52%
17%
21%
12%
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Amiens
10.8
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Montpellier
9.9
Grenoble
9.7
Nancy
9.6
PAU
9.6
Saint Etienne
9.5
Clermont Foot
9.3
Reims
9.2
Le Mans
9.1
Guingamp
9.1
Rouen
8.9
Bastia
8.8
Boulogne
8.6
RED Star FC 93
8.3
Annecy
8.3
Red Star
8.3
Dunkerque
8.3
Estac Troyes
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.4
PAU
4.7
Guingamp
4.6
Boulogne
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Annecy
4.3
Rodez
4.3
Reims
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Clermont Foot
4.2
Dunkerque
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Nancy
4.1
Amiens
4.1
Laval
4.1
Saint Etienne
4.0
Grenoble
3.7
RED Star FC 93
3.7
Red Star
3.5
Rouen
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annecy
29.0
Montpellier
28.8
Bastia
28.8
Nancy
28.7
Guingamp
28.4
Boulogne
28.2
Laval
28.2
Le Mans
27.9
Estac Troyes
27.8
Amiens
27.8
Rouen
27.2
Clermont Foot
26.9
Red Star
26.5
RED Star FC 93
26.5
Dunkerque
26.3
Saint Etienne
26.1
PAU
26.0
Grenoble
26.0
Rodez
25.9
Reims
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
32.2%
Under 9.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
92.0%
Under 21.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 21.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
💰 10. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (30)
€109m
SE (29)
€82m
ET (31)
€62m
DUN (29)
€42m
BAS (31)
€37m
MON (29)
€30m
ROD (27)
€22m
AMI (33)
€21m
RS (28)
€19m
GRE (24)
€17m
LM (25)
€17m
GUI (22)
€15m
ANN (28)
€13m
NAN (30)
€13m
BOU (27)
€11m
ROU (25)
€6m
Nancy's squad is €30m less valuable than Dunkerque's (€13m vs €42m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (9)
€46m
ET (12)
€41m
REI (13)
€37m
DUN (10)
€18m
MON (12)
€10m
GRE (7)
€7m
ROD (7)
€7m
AMI (15)
€6m
RS (9)
€5m
BAS (10)
€5m
GUI (6)
€5m
ANN (10)
€4m
NAN (11)
€4m
BOU (9)
€3m
LM (6)
€2m
ROU (7)
€2m
Nancy's attack is €14m less valuable than Dunkerque's (€4m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (6)
€31m
BAS (7)
€25m
DUN (7)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
AMI (8)
€7m
ET (5)
€7m
ROD (10)
€7m
MON (4)
€5m
RS (6)
€5m
GUI (6)
€4m
LM (8)
€4m
BOU (6)
€3m
GRE (5)
€2m
NAN (7)
€2m
ANN (6)
€2m
ROU (7)
€1m
Nancy's midfield is €11m less valuable than Dunkerque's (€2m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (11)
€41m
SE (13)
€26m
MON (13)
€15m
ET (14)
€14m
DUN (12)
€11m
LM (11)
€11m
ROD (10)
€9m
RS (13)
€9m
AMI (10)
€8m
GRE (12)
€7m
ANN (12)
€6m
BAS (14)
€6m
GUI (10)
€6m
NAN (12)
€6m
BOU (12)
€5m
ROU (11)
€2m
Nancy's defence is €5m less valuable than Dunkerque's (€6m vs €11m).
France: Ligue 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Estac Troyes
Le Mans
Saint Etienne
Reims
Rodez
Annecy
RED Star FC 93
Montpellier
PAU
Guingamp
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Boulogne
Laval
Bastia
Amiens
Rouen