Nancy’s recent win against PAU gives them a brief lift, yet the odds still favour Dunkerque’s away victory, with a 61% chance of triumph. The match is expected to be high-scoring, averaging 3.3 goals, and the most likely total is three, a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10% chance. Nancy’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.38 conceded against similar opponents, while Dunkerque, playing away, averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. The model’s selection list is extensive: Home under 2.5 HT goals98.3% with a 4% edge, Under 7.598.1%, Home under 3.5 goals97.3% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals96.6% with a 4% edge, Over 19.5 fouls96.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals95.8% with a 1% edge, Under 6.595.0%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals93.5% with a 1% edge. The home win probability stands at 18%, the draw at 22%, and the away win at 61%.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Nancy snatching a 2-0 win after a 2-game winning run, extending their recent form. The pre-match favourite was the model’s pick of an Away win, with a 61% probability, but the model was wrong. The final score of 2-0 confirmed a Home win. The model’s selections all hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.5%, Under 6.5 at 95.0%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.5%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and all predictions were satisfied.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nancy win✓ Hit
17.7%
Avg Implied 37.7% · @ 2.47
Edge
-20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Dafabet
2.55
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.51
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.34
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.47
Marathonbet
3.45
1xBet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Dunkerque win✗ Miss
60.5%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.72
Edge
+26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nancy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.23
1.92
1.06
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.04
1.48
1.00
2.38
1.07
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunkerque
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.37
1.15
0.92
2.00
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.82
1.64
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
1.20
2.00
0.50
2.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
@ 1.26+10.4%
Under 1.5
15.1%
@ 3.66-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
4.11
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.85+12.6%
Under 2.5
36.2%
@ 1.94-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
SBO
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.7%
@ 3.07+11.2%
Under 3.5
58.3%
@ 1.35-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Betano
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.5%
@ 1.64+4.1%
No
39.5%
@ 2.12-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.65
No
Betano
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Betfair
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 6.16+2.7%
1-2
9.8%@ 9.34+5.0%
0-2
8.8%@ 13.37+5.5%
0-1
7.2%@ 8.80+2.1%
1-3
7.1%@ 19.56+4.8%
0-3
6.4%@ 27.46+4.8%
2-2
5.5%@ 11.85+1.7%
2-1
5.0%@ 8.77-0.1%
Nancy goals ↓
Dunkerque goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
7.2%
8.8%
6.4%
3.5%
1
3.3%
10.0%
9.8%
7.1%
3.9%
2
2.3%
5.0%
5.5%
4.0%
2.2%
3
0.9%
1.9%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nancy goals (down), columns = Dunkerque goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Nancy is 0.25 points worse than Dunkerque in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Nancy is 0.56 goals worse than Dunkerque in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Nancy is 0.25 goals worse than Dunkerque in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Nancy is 15.5 percentage points worse than Dunkerque in terms of average possession (42% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nancy
For 3.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 17.8 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunkerque
For 5.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nancy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
3.7
3.5
3.8
29.3
29.3
29.2
vs Stronger (9)
8.7
9.6
7.5
5.3
5.4
5.2
31.4
32.4
30.2
vs Similar (39)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.5
3.2
3.7
28.7
28.4
29.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
52%
58%
48%
39%
56%
91%
95%
88%
% under line
44%
48%
42%
52%
61%
44%
9%
5%
12%
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunkerque
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
9.2
7.6
3.6
3.9
3.4
26.1
25.5
26.7
vs Stronger (4)
6.8
8.0
6.3
4.2
4.0
4.3
26.0
25.0
26.3
vs Similar (40)
8.9
9.4
8.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
26.0
25.0
27.1
vs Weaker (6)
6.2
8.0
5.0
3.2
5.0
2.2
27.0
30.5
24.7
% over line
35%
50%
21%
52%
70%
37%
83%
82%
83%
% under line
65%
50%
79%
48%
30%
63%
17%
18%
17%
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.4
Rodez
9.9
Grenoble
9.7
Montpellier
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
Metz
9.5
PAU
9.4
Nantes
9.3
Dijon
9.3
Sochaux
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.1
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.7
Boulogne
8.6
Dunkerque
8.6
Annecy
8.5
RED Star FC 93
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.7
PAU
4.5
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.4
Sochaux
4.3
Annecy
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Rodez
4.1
Reims
4.1
Laval
4.0
Nancy
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Clermont Foot
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.9
Metz
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Grenoble
3.8
Dijon
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Annecy
28.5
Boulogne
28.4
Laval
28.2
Guingamp
27.7
Dijon
27.6
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Clermont Foot
26.7
Nantes
26.7
Saint Etienne
26.4
Sochaux
26.2
PAU
25.9
Dunkerque
25.9
Grenoble
25.8
Rodez
25.8
Reims
24.7
Metz
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
34.9%
@ 2.16-8.0%
Under 9.5
65.1%
@ 1.62+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Under
Superbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.9%
@ 1.57-0.1%
Under 3.5
42.1%
@ 2.17+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.57
Under
Superbet
2.17
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.8%
Under 21.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nancy or Draw✓ Hit
39.5%
Avg Implied 65.6% · @ 1.43
Edge
-26.1%
18%
22%
61%
covers Nancy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Nancy or Dunkerque✓ Hit
78.2%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.29
Edge
+5.9%
18%
22%
61%
covers Nancy + Dunkerque
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Dunkerque✗ Miss
82.3%
Avg Implied 62.0% · @ 1.51
Edge
+20.3%
18%
22%
61%
covers Draw + Dunkerque
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nancy over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.2%
@ 1.24-7.2%
Under
32.8%
@ 3.62+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.05
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.60
Nancy over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.6%
@ 2.25-10.9%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.60+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Nancy over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 5.00-8.3%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.14+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Nancy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 11.06-5.9%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Dunkerque over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
88.6%
@ 1.28+16.1%
Under
11.4%
@ 3.37-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.67
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Dunkerque over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.9%
@ 2.40+24.9%
Under
36.1%
@ 1.53-24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
BetVictor
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Dunkerque over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
37.0%
@ 5.48+20.0%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.12-20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Dunkerque over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 12.58+10.0%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.03-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nancy, so a minus line means Nancy give that many goals of a start and Dunkerque receive them. At -1, Nancy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nancy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nancy)Actual: Draw
Nancy -2
2.0%
@ 10.03-6.8%
Draw -2
4.9%
@ 6.64-8.5%
Dunkerque +2
93.1%
@ 1.14+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Nancy)Actual: Nancy
Nancy -1
6.9%
@ 4.79-11.8%
Draw -1
10.8%
@ 4.13-10.8%
Dunkerque +1
82.3%
@ 1.50+22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Handicap +1 (Nancy)Actual: Nancy
Nancy +1
39.5%
@ 1.43-23.1%
Draw +1
21.9%
@ 4.36+1.4%
Dunkerque -1
38.6%
@ 5.25+21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.35
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Handicap +2 (Nancy)Actual: Nancy
Nancy +2
61.4%
@ 1.11-18.3%
Draw +2
18.5%
@ 7.15+6.1%
Dunkerque -2
20.2%
@ 11.24+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.10
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.95
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nancy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.62
0.62
0.29
0.35
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.27
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunkerque
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.46
0.38
0.94
0.82
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.55
0.45
0.45
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.6%
@ 1.35+3.8%
Under 0.5
27.4%
@ 2.99-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.16
William Hil
3.10
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.65-1.1%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.44+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.2%
@ 6.47-1.2%
Under 2.5
86.8%
@ 1.09+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.40
1xBet
6.35
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nancy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.5%
@ 1.98-4.3%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.74+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Nancy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 6.00-5.0%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.10+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Nancy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 17.17-4.0%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Dunkerque over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.9%
@ 2.06+4.9%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.69-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Dunkerque over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.3%
@ 6.46-0.1%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.08+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Dunkerque over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 19.58-1.5%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nancy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.62
1.31
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
1.04
0.50
1.62
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunkerque
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.69
0.54
1.06
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.45
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.3%
@ 1.22+3.8%
Under 0.5
19.7%
@ 3.97-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Under
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.98
William Hil
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.0%
@ 2.04+3.3%
Under 1.5
51.0%
@ 1.72-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Under
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.5%
@ 4.29-0.3%
Under 2.5
78.5%
@ 1.19+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nancy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.8%
@ 1.70-4.7%
Under
50.2%
@ 2.04+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Nancy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.43-6.4%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.17+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Nancy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 11.67-5.7%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Dunkerque over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.1%
@ 1.75+1.0%
Under
45.9%
@ 1.97-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Dunkerque over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 4.69+4.9%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.15-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Betano
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Dunkerque over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 12.42-1.1%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.02+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
93.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+15.3%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.6%
1.28
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+16.1%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
88.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.9%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.7%
1.21
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
82.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-10.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.2%
1.29
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.2%
1.21
Superbet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
76.5%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.2%
1.36
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nancy
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brandon Bokangu50%
Nehemiah Fernandez25%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Zakaria Fdaouch0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Ilyes Housni0%
Enzo Tacafred0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nehemiah Fernandez50%
Héliohdino Tavares33%
Enzo Tacafred25%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Zakaria Fdaouch0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Brandon Bokangu0%
Ilyes Housni0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilyes Housni50%
Zakaria Fdaouch25%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Brandon Bokangu0%
Nehemiah Fernandez0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Enzo Tacafred0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Brandon Bokangu50%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Zakaria Fdaouch0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Nehemiah Fernandez0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Ilyes Housni0%
Enzo Tacafred0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
Dunkerque
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mayela33%
Souleymane Keita33%
Thomas Robinet25%
Adrien Lebeau25%
Egor Prutsev25%
Marco Decherf25%
Opa Sangante0%
Allan Linguet0%
Maxence Prévot0%
Lenny Vallier0%
Bram Lagae0%
Alex Daho0%
Enzo Mayilla0%
Théna Massock0%
Khalil Ayari0%
Jordan Morel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Souleymane Keita67%
Khalil Ayari50%
Opa Sangante25%
Allan Linguet25%
Thomas Robinet25%
Adrien Lebeau25%
Alex Daho25%
Enzo Mayilla25%
Marco Decherf25%
Maxence Prévot0%
Lenny Vallier0%
Egor Prutsev0%
Victor Mayela0%
Bram Lagae0%
Théna Massock0%
Jordan Morel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thomas Robinet50%
Marco Decherf50%
Egor Prutsev25%
Alex Daho25%
Opa Sangante0%
Allan Linguet0%
Maxence Prévot0%
Lenny Vallier0%
Adrien Lebeau0%
Victor Mayela0%
Bram Lagae0%
Enzo Mayilla0%
Souleymane Keita0%
Théna Massock0%
Khalil Ayari0%
Jordan Morel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thomas Robinet25%
Egor Prutsev25%
Opa Sangante0%
Allan Linguet0%
Maxence Prévot0%
Lenny Vallier0%
Adrien Lebeau0%
Victor Mayela0%
Bram Lagae0%
Alex Daho0%
Enzo Mayilla0%
Souleymane Keita0%
Théna Massock0%
Khalil Ayari0%
Jordan Morel0%
Marco Decherf0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Nancy's squad is €3m more valuable than Dunkerque's (€13m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Nancy and Dunkerque have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Nancy and Dunkerque have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Nancy's defence is €1m more valuable than Dunkerque's (€6m vs €5m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Rodez
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes