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Neftçi II vs FK Qəbələ II Result & Analysis

Date: 05/12/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 1-0
Neftçi II
Neftçi II
Vs
66%
19%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Qəbələ II
FK Qəbələ II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neftçi II win✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II win✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftçi IINeftçi II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W32W20W10W71W30W11D21W30W14LH·QAR30/08A·SƏB07/09H·ZAQ29/09A·QAR04/10H·IMI12/10A·KEŞ18/10H·KAP26/10A·SUM01/11H·ZIR09/11A·TUR30/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.361.183.000.401.831.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)2.003.00--2.003.00
vs Weaker (9)2.440.783.000.401.751.25
Clean sheet %45% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Qəbələ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L10W32W01L02L11D42W40W12L11DA·KEŞ31/08H·KAP06/09A·SUM19/09H·ZIR28/09A·TUR05/10H·ARA19/10A·MOI25/10H·MIN02/11A·QAR08/11H·SƏB01/12
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.271.500.502.002.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.331.331.000.601.752.25
vs Weaker (2)3.501.004.000.003.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftçi II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.0%
Under 2.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.8%
Under 3.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.3%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
6.9%
1-0 ✓
5.9%
2-2
5.3%
4-1
4.8%
Neftçi II goals ↓
FK Qəbələ II goals →
01234
03.4%2.3%1.7%0.6%0.2%
15.9%8.3%4.3%1.6%0.5%
28.3%9.4%5.3%2.0%0.6%
36.9%7.8%4.4%1.7%0.5%
44.3%4.8%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftçi II goals (down), columns = FK Qəbələ II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Neftçi II is 0.54 points better than FK Qəbələ II in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Neftçi II is 0.79 goals better than FK Qəbələ II in terms of goals scored per game (2.39 vs 1.61).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Neftçi II is 0.14 goals worse than FK Qəbələ II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftçi IINeftçi II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W12L00D10W50W10W11D11D20W02LH·QAR30/08A·SƏB07/09H·ZAQ29/09A·QAR04/10H·IMI12/10A·KEŞ18/10H·KAP26/10A·SUM01/11H·ZIR09/11A·TUR30/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.180.731.800.200.671.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.502.00--0.502.00
vs Weaker (9)1.330.441.800.200.750.75
Clean sheet %55% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Qəbələ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W11D00D00D00D11D10W00D10WA·KEŞ31/08H·KAP06/09A·SUM19/09H·ZIR28/09A·TUR05/10H·ARA19/10A·MOI25/10H·MIN02/11A·QAR08/11H·SƏB01/12
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.180.670.000.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.110.600.000.500.25
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %82% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftçi II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftçi II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftçi II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftçi II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftçi IINeftçi II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W20W00D21W20W00D10W10W12LH·QAR30/08A·SƏB07/09H·ZAQ29/09A·QAR04/10H·IMI12/10A·KEŞ18/10H·KAP26/10A·SUM01/11H·ZIR09/11A·TUR30/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.180.451.200.201.170.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.501.00--1.501.00
vs Weaker (9)1.110.331.200.201.000.50
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Qəbələ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D21W01L02L11D31W30W12L01LA·KEŞ31/08H·KAP06/09A·SUM19/09H·ZIR28/09A·TUR05/10H·ARA19/10A·MOI25/10H·MIN02/11A·QAR08/11H·SƏB01/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.091.090.830.501.401.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.781.220.400.601.252.00
vs Weaker (2)2.500.503.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftçi II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftçi II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftçi II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftçi II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Qəbələ II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
NI wins
0
Draws
0
FQI wins

Head-to-head

Neftçi II vs FK Qəbələ II · H/A from NI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Neftçi IINeftçi II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/22ATuran II Vs NI4-1
09/11/22HNI Vs Zira II3-0
01/11/22ASumqayıt II Vs NI1-2
26/10/22HNI Vs Kapaz II1-1
18/10/22AKeşlə II Vs NI0-3
12/10/22HNI Vs Imisli FK7-1
04/10/22AQarabağ II Vs NI0-1
29/09/22HNI Vs Zaqatala2-0
07/09/22ASəbail II Vs NI2-3
30/08/22HNI Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan2-0

FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/12/22HFQI Vs Səbail II1-1
08/11/22AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs FQI2-1
02/11/22HFQI Vs Mingəçevir4-0
25/10/22AMOIK Vs FQI2-4
19/10/22HFQI Vs Araz1-1
05/10/22ATuran II Vs FQI2-0
28/09/22HFQI Vs Zira II0-1
19/09/22ASumqayıt II Vs FQI2-3
06/09/22HFQI Vs Kapaz II1-0
31/08/22AKeşlə II Vs FQI3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neftçi II
Neftçi II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL2.27
HomeWWWDW2.60
AwayWWWWL2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %73%80%67%
AVG goals3.553.403.67
Over 1.5 %91%100%83%
Over 2.5 %64%40%83%
Over 3.5 %36%20%50%
Scored2.363.001.83
Conceded1.180.401.83
BTTS55%40%67%
Clean Sheet45%60%33%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Qəbələ II
FK Qəbələ II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLD1.55
HomeWLDWD1.83
AwayLWLWL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%50%40%
AVG goals3.002.004.20
Over 1.5 %82%67%100%
Over 2.5 %45%17%80%
Over 3.5 %36%17%60%
Scored1.731.502.00
Conceded1.270.502.20
BTTS55%33%80%
Clean Sheet27%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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