This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.90
2.18
0.82
2.08
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.25
0.88
2.40
0.80
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
2.09
0.91
2.08
0.83
2.10
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-0 ✓
7.4%
0-2
5.3%
Newcastle goals ↓
Arsenal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.7%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.3%
14%
7.4%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
8.7%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.4%
4.1%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = Arsenal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Everton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Watford
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Coventry
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Oxford
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Cardiff
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Grimsby
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Hull
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Newcastle is 0.91 points better than Arsenal in terms of average points per game (2.71 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Watford
2.67
Southampton
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Wrexham
2.00
Everton
2.00
Preston
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Sheffield United
2.00
Reading
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Shrewsbury
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Brentford
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Walsall
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Newport County
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Derby
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Coventry
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Hull
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Newcastle is 0.34 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Fulham
0.50
Blackpool
0.67
Watford
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Coventry
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Luton
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bristol City
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Preston
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Brentford
1.25
Crystal Palace
1.25
Leyton Orient
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Brighton
1.67
Leicester
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Salford
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Carlisle
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Reading
2.00
Hull
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Barnsley
2.67
Gillingham
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Morecambe
3.00
Cheltenham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Newcastle is 0.97 goals better than Arsenal in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newcastle
For 5.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
For 7.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.4
10.6
4.0
4.0
4.0
23.0
24.0
22.0
vs Stronger (7)
11.2
12.0
9.5
5.0
6.5
3.0
25.0
24.5
26.0
vs Similar (33)
11.4
12.3
10.7
4.2
4.2
4.3
22.7
23.8
21.9
vs Weaker (10)
9.6
9.2
11.0
2.7
2.5
3.5
22.8
24.0
19.0
% over line
64%
73%
55%
56%
58%
54%
61%
68%
55%
% under line
36%
27%
45%
44%
42%
46%
39%
32%
45%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.7
3.3
4.1
22.1
21.1
23.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.8
7.0
10.6
3.3
2.8
4.0
22.4
23.3
21.6
vs Weaker (35)
9.5
9.8
9.1
3.8
3.5
4.2
21.9
20.1
23.9
% over line
53%
48%
59%
52%
48%
57%
51%
35%
68%
% under line
47%
52%
41%
48%
52%
43%
49%
65%
32%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tottenham
12.8
Bournemouth
11.8
Sheffield Weds
11.7
Barnsley
11.7
QPR
11.4
Huddersfield
11.3
Luton
11.3
Crawley Town
11.2
Coventry
11.2
Manchester United
11.2
Brentford
11.1
Stoke
11.1
Exeter
11.0
Sheffield United
11.0
Southampton
10.9
Everton
10.9
Tranmere
10.8
Morecambe
10.8
Harrogate
10.8
Newcastle
10.8
Fleetwood Town
10.8
Derby
10.7
Portsmouth
10.7
Liverpool
10.7
Manchester City
10.6
Notts County
10.6
Walsall
10.6
Mansfield
10.5
Ipswich
10.5
Millwall
10.5
Nottingham Forest
10.5
Leeds
10.4
West Brom
10.4
Bolton
10.4
Port Vale
10.4
Fulham
10.4
Bristol Rvs
10.3
Hull
10.3
Plymouth
10.3
Swindon
10.3
Middlesbrough
10.3
Swansea
10.2
Bristol City
10.2
Doncaster
10.2
Wrexham
10.2
Crystal Palace
10.2
Bromley
10.2
Norwich
10.1
Reading
10.1
Aston Villa
10.1
Blackburn
10.1
Peterboro
10.1
Charlton
10.1
Sunderland
10.1
Watford
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Oxford
10.0
Crewe
10.0
Wolves
10.0
Grimsby
10.0
Brighton
9.9
Rotherham
9.9
West Ham
9.9
Blackpool
9.9
Stevenage
9.9
Chesterfield
9.8
Birmingham
9.8
Wycombe
9.8
Shrewsbury
9.8
Barrow
9.8
Lincoln
9.8
Bradford
9.8
Leicester
9.8
Burnley
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Colchester
9.7
Accrington
9.6
Carlisle
9.6
Leyton Orient
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Cardiff
9.5
Arsenal
9.4
Salford
9.3
Burton
9.3
Northampton
9.1
Gillingham
9.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.0
Preston
9.0
Cambridge
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.7
Stockport
8.7
Wigan
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
5.0
Bolton
4.9
Chelsea
4.9
Bournemouth
4.8
Brighton
4.7
Sunderland
4.7
Salford
4.6
Lincoln
4.6
Stevenage
4.6
Wigan
4.5
Bradford
4.5
Southampton
4.5
Watford
4.5
Newcastle
4.5
Wolves
4.5
AFC Wimbledon
4.5
Barrow
4.5
Crewe
4.4
Nottingham Forest
4.4
Accrington
4.4
Portsmouth
4.4
Colchester
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Exeter
4.3
Chesterfield
4.2
Liverpool
4.2
Doncaster
4.2
Morecambe
4.2
Tranmere
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Grimsby
4.2
Tottenham
4.2
Blackpool
4.1
Shrewsbury
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.1
Charlton
4.1
Gillingham
4.1
Milton Keynes Dons
4.1
Barnsley
4.1
Luton
4.1
Norwich
4.1
Carlisle
4.1
Mansfield
4.0
Leicester
4.0
Burnley
4.0
Fulham
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Birmingham
4.0
Huddersfield
4.0
Arsenal
4.0
West Ham
4.0
Crystal Palace
4.0
Manchester United
4.0
Burton
4.0
Stoke
4.0
Stockport
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Crawley Town
3.9
Preston
3.9
Coventry
3.9
Middlesbrough
3.9
Bristol Rvs
3.9
Sheffield Weds
3.9
Brentford
3.8
Oxford
3.8
Port Vale
3.8
Hull
3.8
Sheffield United
3.8
Leeds
3.8
Cheltenham
3.8
Wrexham
3.8
Ipswich
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bristol City
3.7
Cardiff
3.7
Newport County
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Plymouth
3.6
Millwall
3.6
Leyton Orient
3.6
Northampton
3.6
Derby
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Everton
3.5
Bromley
3.5
Manchester City
3.5
Peterboro
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Swindon
3.3
Reading
3.2
Harrogate
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
26.4
Wigan
25.4
Salford
25.3
Luton
25.1
Grimsby
24.9
Bolton
24.8
Lincoln
24.8
Accrington
24.7
Doncaster
24.7
Stockport
24.6
Bradford
24.5
Aston Villa
24.4
Portsmouth
24.3
Birmingham
24.2
Sunderland
24.2
Cheltenham
24.1
Morecambe
24.0
Preston
24.0
Millwall
24.0
Cambridge
24.0
Wycombe
23.9
Watford
23.8
Exeter
23.7
AFC Wimbledon
23.7
Blackpool
23.7
Leeds
23.6
Bournemouth
23.6
Rotherham
23.6
Colchester
23.5
Sheffield Weds
23.5
Tottenham
23.5
Wolves
23.4
Plymouth
23.3
Shrewsbury
23.3
Huddersfield
23.2
Crewe
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Chesterfield
23.1
Charlton
23.0
Southampton
23.0
Crystal Palace
23.0
Swansea
23.0
Newcastle
22.9
Hull
22.8
Newport County
22.8
Brighton
22.7
Ipswich
22.6
Bristol Rvs
22.6
Burnley
22.5
Blackburn
22.5
Norwich
22.5
Chelsea
22.5
QPR
22.5
Reading
22.5
Coventry
22.4
Mansfield
22.4
Fleetwood Town
22.4
Barrow
22.3
Gillingham
22.3
Arsenal
22.1
Oxford
21.9
Bristol City
21.9
Everton
21.9
Nottingham Forest
21.8
Burton
21.8
Derby
21.7
Bromley
21.7
Port Vale
21.6
Tranmere
21.6
Crawley Town
21.6
Leicester
21.6
Peterboro
21.6
Harrogate
21.5
West Ham
21.5
Northampton
21.5
Cardiff
21.5
Carlisle
21.4
Walsall
21.3
Wrexham
21.2
Liverpool
21.2
Leyton Orient
21.1
Stoke
21.1
Fulham
20.7
Sheffield United
20.7
Swindon
20.6
Notts County
20.5
Middlesbrough
20.5
Barnsley
20.5
Manchester United
20.4
West Brom
19.8
Brentford
19.3
Manchester City
17.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.0%
Under 9.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
71.8%
Under 3.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.6%
Under 21.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newcastle or Draw✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
31%
covers Newcastle + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newcastle or Arsenal✓ Hit
71.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
31%
covers Newcastle + Arsenal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arsenal✗ Miss
59.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Arsenal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newcastle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Newcastle, so a minus line means Newcastle give that many goals of a start and Arsenal receive them. At -1, Newcastle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newcastle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newcastle)Actual: Draw
Newcastle -2
7.3%
Draw -2
12.4%
Arsenal +2
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Newcastle)Actual: Newcastle
Newcastle -1
19.7%
Draw -1
20.8%
Arsenal +1
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Newcastle)Actual: Newcastle
Newcastle +1
69.4%
Draw +1
17.5%
Arsenal -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Newcastle)Actual: Newcastle
Newcastle +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.9%
Arsenal -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.94
0.38
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.63
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.20
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.40
0.88
0.24
1.31
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.45
0.83
0.25
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.88
0.62
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.68
0.50
0.88
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.29
0.59
0.77
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.62
1.40
0.60
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.45
1.25
0.58
0.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alexander Isak52%
Anthony Gordon21%
Harvey Barnes20%
Jacob Murphy17%
Fabian Schär14%
Sandro Tonali11%
Joelinton11%
Bruno Guimarães11%
William Osula11%
Lewis Miley11%
Joe Willock5%
Callum Wilson5%
Dan Burn4%
Kieran Trippier0%
Miguel Almirón0%
Emil Krafth0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Sean Longstaff0%
Nick Pope0%
Matt Targett0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Sven Botman0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Lewis Hall0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joelinton32%
Fabian Schär29%
Dan Burn26%
Bruno Guimarães21%
Lloyd Kelly14%
Sandro Tonali13%
Sean Longstaff12%
Nick Pope12%
Joe Willock12%
Lewis Hall12%
Emil Krafth11%
Sven Botman10%
Jacob Murphy10%
Anthony Gordon10%
Valentino Livramento7%
William Osula5%
Callum Wilson5%
Kieran Trippier3%
Alexander Isak2%
Miguel Almirón0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Matt Targett0%
Lewis Miley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jacob Murphy29%
Matt Targett20%
Bruno Guimarães15%
Alexander Isak14%
Anthony Gordon14%
Lewis Hall12%
Harvey Barnes10%
Kieran Trippier10%
Joelinton8%
Lloyd Kelly7%
Sandro Tonali7%
William Osula5%
Joe Willock5%
Sean Longstaff3%
Fabian Schär2%
Valentino Livramento2%
Dan Burn2%
Miguel Almirón0%
Emil Krafth0%
Callum Wilson0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Nick Pope0%
Sven Botman0%
Lewis Miley0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexander Isak33%
Harvey Barnes15%
Anthony Gordon12%
William Osula11%
Jacob Murphy10%
Joelinton8%
Joe Willock7%
Miguel Almirón7%
Bruno Guimarães6%
Fabian Schär5%
Lewis Hall3%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Callum Wilson0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Sean Longstaff0%
Nick Pope0%
Matt Targett0%
Dan Burn0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Sandro Tonali0%
Sven Botman0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Lewis Miley0%
Arsenal
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kai Havertz42%
Bukayo Saka30%
Ethan Nwaneri22%
Gabriel Martinelli20%
Mikel Merino18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Declan Rice15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Gabriel Magalhães12%
Martin Ødegaard11%
Riccardo Calafiori10%
Thomas Partey8%
Kieran Tierney5%
Oleksandr Zinchenko4%
Jurriën Timber4%
William Saliba4%
Jorginho4%
Raheem Sterling4%
Jakub Kiwior3%
Myles Lewis-Skelly3%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Riccardo Calafiori24%
Kai Havertz19%
Jurriën Timber19%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Jorginho19%
Raheem Sterling18%
Declan Rice17%
Myles Lewis-Skelly15%
Gabriel Magalhães14%
Bukayo Saka14%
Thomas Partey13%
Ben White12%
David Raya9%
Mikel Merino9%
Martin Ødegaard9%
Oleksandr Zinchenko9%
Leandro Trossard7%
Jakub Kiwior7%
William Saliba6%
Gabriel Martinelli6%
Ethan Nwaneri3%
Kieran Tierney0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bukayo Saka30%
Martin Ødegaard22%
Declan Rice17%
Raheem Sterling14%
Leandro Trossard14%
Kai Havertz11%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Mikel Merino9%
Jurriën Timber8%
Ben White8%
Gabriel Jesus7%
Riccardo Calafiori7%
Ethan Nwaneri5%
Oleksandr Zinchenko4%
Thomas Partey4%
Jakub Kiwior3%
Myles Lewis-Skelly3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kieran Tierney0%
Jorginho0%
David Raya0%
William Saliba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bukayo Saka30%
Kai Havertz28%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Raheem Sterling14%
Leandro Trossard14%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Martin Ødegaard9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Declan Rice8%
Gabriel Magalhães5%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Mikel Merino2%
Jurriën Timber2%
Thomas Partey0%
Oleksandr Zinchenko0%
Kieran Tierney0%
Jorginho0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Newcastle's squad is €839m less valuable than Arsenal's (€568m vs €1406m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newcastle's attack is €374m less valuable than Arsenal's (€234m vs €608m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Newcastle's midfield is €166m less valuable than Arsenal's (€124m vs €290m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newcastle's defence is €299m less valuable than Arsenal's (€210m vs €508m).
England: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Liverpool
Manchester City
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brentford
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Everton
West Ham
Manchester United
Wolves
Tottenham
Leicester
Ipswich
Southampton