This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.33
0.93
0.67
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.38
0.33
1.33
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (18)
0.50
1.17
0.20
1.00
0.88
1.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.5%
Under 1.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.3%
@ 2.45-6.8%
Under 2.5
68.7%
@ 1.51+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.6%
Under 3.5
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
35.7%
No
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.5%
0-0
15.2%
1-1
13.0%
2-0 ✓
12.4%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
3.7%
Newport County goals ↓
Gillingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
7.7%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
1
18%
13%
3.7%
0.8%
0.1%
2
12%
7.9%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
5.5%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.8%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newport County goals (down), columns = Gillingham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leyton Orient
1.98
Stevenage
1.85
Northampton
1.80
Stockport
1.72
Bradford
1.65
Carlisle
1.65
Mansfield
1.63
Salford
1.63
Barrow
1.35
Grimsby
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Sutton
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Tranmere
1.26
Newport County
1.24
Doncaster
1.20
Walsall
1.20
Gillingham
1.20
Harrogate
1.13
Colchester
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.00
Hartlepool
0.93
Rochdale
0.83
Newport County is 0.04 points better than Gillingham in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mansfield
1.57
Salford
1.57
Carlisle
1.43
Stockport
1.41
Northampton
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Bradford
1.33
Stevenage
1.33
Harrogate
1.28
Newport County
1.15
Hartlepool
1.13
Grimsby
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.04
Crewe
1.04
Barrow
1.02
Sutton
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Rochdale
1.00
Tranmere
0.98
Colchester
0.96
Gillingham
0.78
Newport County is 0.37 goals better than Gillingham in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leyton Orient
0.74
Stockport
0.80
Stevenage
0.85
Northampton
0.91
Bradford
0.93
Carlisle
0.93
Tranmere
1.04
Walsall
1.07
Gillingham
1.07
Colchester
1.11
Barrow
1.15
Salford
1.17
Swindon
1.20
Mansfield
1.20
Grimsby
1.22
Newport County
1.22
Sutton
1.26
AFC Wimbledon
1.30
Crewe
1.30
Doncaster
1.41
Harrogate
1.48
Rochdale
1.52
Crawley Town
1.54
Hartlepool
1.70
Newport County is 0.15 goals worse than Gillingham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
58%
Leyton Orient
58%
Salford
57%
Bradford
54%
Stockport
54%
Mansfield
53%
Hartlepool
51%
Crawley Town
51%
Northampton
51%
Tranmere
51%
Grimsby
50%
Doncaster
50%
Rochdale
49%
Harrogate
48%
Crewe
48%
Stevenage
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Newport County
46%
Carlisle
46%
Sutton
46%
Walsall
46%
Barrow
46%
Colchester
46%
Gillingham
45%
Newport County is 0.9 percentage points better than Gillingham in terms of average possession (46% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newport County
For 4.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gillingham
For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.1
3.3
3.3
3.2
21.1
20.8
21.4
vs Stronger (5)
10.2
8.0
10.8
2.8
2.0
3.0
21.2
19.0
21.8
vs Similar (34)
9.0
9.3
8.5
3.3
3.5
2.9
21.6
21.3
21.9
vs Weaker (11)
9.5
9.8
9.3
3.5
2.8
4.0
19.5
19.0
20.0
% over line
42%
46%
38%
44%
50%
38%
46%
46%
46%
% under line
58%
54%
62%
56%
50%
62%
54%
54%
54%
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.5
8.8
3.2
3.3
3.2
21.8
20.9
22.8
vs Stronger (17)
8.2
8.4
8.1
3.3
3.0
3.5
21.2
20.7
21.5
vs Similar (28)
9.8
9.6
10.0
3.2
3.4
2.9
21.9
20.6
23.9
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
12.5
6.7
3.0
3.0
3.0
23.4
24.5
22.7
% over line
34%
42%
25%
32%
38%
25%
54%
50%
58%
% under line
66%
58%
75%
68%
62%
75%
46%
50%
42%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barrow
10.6
Sutton
10.3
Grimsby
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.2
Bradford
10.1
Tranmere
10.1
Harrogate
10.0
Crewe
10.0
Mansfield
10.0
Swindon
10.0
Stevenage
9.8
Crawley Town
9.7
Rochdale
9.6
Doncaster
9.6
Salford
9.5
Colchester
9.5
Walsall
9.4
Carlisle
9.4
Newport County
9.2
Gillingham
9.2
Hartlepool
9.1
Stockport
9.1
Northampton
8.8
Leyton Orient
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Leyton Orient
4.3
Barrow
4.2
Swindon
3.9
Northampton
3.9
Colchester
3.6
Mansfield
3.5
Stockport
3.5
Salford
3.3
Sutton
3.3
Bradford
3.3
Walsall
3.3
Newport County
3.3
Grimsby
3.2
Carlisle
3.2
Gillingham
3.2
Crewe
3.2
Rochdale
3.2
Tranmere
3.1
Crawley Town
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
Stevenage
3.0
Doncaster
2.9
Hartlepool
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AFC Wimbledon
24.5
Northampton
23.5
Barrow
23.5
Salford
23.4
Mansfield
23.4
Walsall
23.2
Crawley Town
23.1
Crewe
23.0
Bradford
23.0
Sutton
22.9
Grimsby
22.8
Stockport
22.7
Colchester
22.5
Leyton Orient
22.4
Tranmere
21.9
Gillingham
21.8
Stevenage
21.7
Swindon
21.6
Doncaster
21.3
Rochdale
21.1
Newport County
21.1
Hartlepool
21.0
Harrogate
20.8
Carlisle
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
30.9%
Under 9.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.8%
Under 3.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.3%
Under 21.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.26
0.50
0.40
0.67
0.11
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.57
0.13
0.60
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.62
0.00
0.67
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.67
0.10
0.70
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.27
1.00
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.79
0.30
1.00
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.57
0.25
0.75
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.53
0.20
0.33
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.75
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.22
0.50
0.10
0.30
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
H. Biggins50%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
C. Norman25%
Ciaran Brennan25%
Alfie Merritt25%
H. Biggins0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
H. Biggins25%
Alfie Merritt25%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Biggins25%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Gillingham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Conor McManus25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Brophy25%
Robbie McKenzie25%
Omar Beckles25%
Will Goodwin25%
Nick Freeman0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Freeman25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Will Goodwin25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Newport County's squad is €1m less valuable than Gillingham's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Newport County and Gillingham have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Newport County's midfield is €1m less valuable than Gillingham's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STO (11)
€4m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Newport County and Gillingham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Northampton
Stockport
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford
Mansfield
Barrow
Swindon
Grimsby
Tranmere
Crewe
Sutton
Walsall
Doncaster
Harrogate
Colchester
AFC Wimbledon
Crawley Town
Hartlepool
Rochdale