This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.27
1.06
1.19
0.93
1.36
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.90
1.29
1.00
1.18
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.6%
@ 2.04-1.1%
Under 2.5
55.4%
@ 1.72+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0 ✓
10.5%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.0%
Newport County goals ↓
Gillingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
7.9%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.2%
8.8%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newport County goals (down), columns = Gillingham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Newport County is 0.20 points worse than Gillingham in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Newport County is 0.35 goals better than Gillingham in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Newport County is 0.41 goals worse than Gillingham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Newport County is 6.2 percentage points worse than Gillingham in terms of average possession (44% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newport County
For 5.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gillingham
For 7.1 · Against 2.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 10.9 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.9
9.7
3.4
4.2
2.7
22.0
22.3
21.7
vs Stronger (9)
9.8
10.0
9.3
2.9
3.8
1.0
20.9
22.3
18.0
vs Similar (35)
9.6
10.1
9.2
3.7
4.6
3.1
22.8
22.4
23.1
vs Weaker (6)
11.3
9.0
13.7
2.5
2.7
2.3
19.3
21.7
17.0
% over line
50%
48%
52%
48%
60%
36%
60%
68%
52%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
52%
40%
64%
40%
32%
48%
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.0
9.3
3.9
4.5
3.2
21.7
23.1
20.2
vs Stronger (12)
8.3
7.5
9.2
4.0
5.5
2.5
22.2
23.7
20.7
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.4
9.5
3.7
3.9
3.5
21.7
22.9
20.3
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
9.3
8.5
4.6
6.0
2.5
21.0
23.0
18.0
% over line
46%
35%
58%
58%
69%
46%
46%
58%
33%
% under line
54%
65%
42%
42%
31%
54%
54%
42%
67%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wrexham
11.4
Tranmere
11.1
Crewe
10.9
Harrogate
10.7
Grimsby
10.6
Forest Green
10.6
Colchester
10.6
Mansfield
10.4
Notts County
10.3
Accrington
10.2
Morecambe
10.2
Milton Keynes Dons
10.2
Swindon
10.1
Crawley Town
10.1
Walsall
9.8
Newport County
9.8
Doncaster
9.8
Bradford
9.7
Salford
9.7
Sutton
9.7
Stockport
9.6
AFC Wimbledon
9.4
Barrow
9.2
Gillingham
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Crawley Town
4.7
Colchester
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Bradford
4.3
Swindon
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.1
Salford
4.1
Notts County
4.1
Barrow
4.1
Accrington
4.1
Doncaster
4.1
Crewe
4.1
Morecambe
4.0
Walsall
4.0
Forest Green
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Mansfield
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Wrexham
3.5
Grimsby
3.5
Sutton
3.5
Newport County
3.4
Stockport
3.4
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
24.7
AFC Wimbledon
23.5
Barrow
22.6
Milton Keynes Dons
22.4
Stockport
22.4
Crewe
22.3
Sutton
22.3
Crawley Town
22.1
Salford
22.1
Newport County
22.0
Walsall
22.0
Gillingham
21.7
Bradford
21.7
Grimsby
21.6
Swindon
21.5
Doncaster
21.4
Mansfield
20.9
Colchester
20.7
Forest Green
20.7
Wrexham
20.6
Tranmere
20.4
Morecambe
20.0
Harrogate
19.7
Notts County
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.7%
Under 9.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
27.9%
Under 21.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.69
0.75
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.65
0.80
0.70
1.10
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.62
0.27
0.55
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
1.12
0.69
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.85
1.30
0.70
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.67
0.73
0.64
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
Harrison Biggins33%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
Ciaran Brennan33%
Harrison Biggins0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Harrison Biggins33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
Alfie Merritt33%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harrison Biggins33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Gillingham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Conor McManus33%
James Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
Andy Smith0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Brophy33%
Robbie McKenzie33%
Omar Beckles33%
Nick Freeman0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
Andy Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Freeman33%
James Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
Andy Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Will Goodwin33%
James Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Andy Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Newport County's squad is €1m less valuable than Gillingham's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newport County and Gillingham have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Newport County's midfield is €1m less valuable than Gillingham's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newport County and Gillingham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Harrogate
Notts County
Morecambe
Tranmere
Accrington
Swindon
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Sutton
Forest Green