This match between Nice and Lorient is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the home side coming off a win against Saint Etienne. Nice has a slight advantage, with a 42% chance of winning at home, compared to Lorient's 30% chance of an away win. The draw is also a possibility, with a 28% probability. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.3%. Nice has scored an average of 1.71 goals per game at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.86. Lorient, on the other hand, has scored 1.14 goals per game away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.29.
The model suggests a selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.5% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 71.3% probability and a 3% edge. The model also suggests a selection of Home or Away, with a 72.9% probability.
Results analysis
Nice and Lorient finished level at 0-0, a result that surprised the model’s pre-match favourite, a Home win at 42 %. The model’s call was wrong, as the match ended in a draw. The final score of 0-0 matched the teams’ recent form, each coming off a draw. The model’s selection Under 7.5 goals hit, as did the Home under 2.5 HT goals, Under 6.5, Away under 2.5 HT goals, Away under 2.5 2H goals, Away under 3.5 goals, Home under 2.5 2H goals and Under 5.5. Each hit carried a probability of 99.2 %, 97.9 %, 97.6 %, 97.5 %, 96.0 %, 95.9 %, 95.5 % and 93.5 % respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nice win✗ Miss
41.7%
Avg Implied 43.2% · @ 2.20
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Dafabet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Draw✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.34
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.56
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.35
Lorient win✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.34
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.49
1xBet
3.46
Marathonbet
3.42
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.43
1.57
0.88
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.40
1.27
1.36
0.64
1.43
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.10
1.47
0.93
1.73
1.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.00
1.33
0.33
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.19
1.50
1.08
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
0.50
-
-
5.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.32+2.8%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 3.30-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.8%
@ 2.04+1.1%
Under 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.79-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
@ 3.56-0.4%
Under 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.28+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.64
Under
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.4%
@ 1.78+0.9%
No
46.6%
@ 1.97-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
No
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 5.95+6.1%
1-0
9.5%@ 7.01+3.0%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.18+3.3%
0-0 ✓
8.8%@ 9.37+4.0%
2-0
7.6%@ 9.73+3.0%
0-1
7.5%@ 9.06+2.5%
1-2
7.3%@ 10.48+2.9%
2-2
5.2%@ 13.16+1.7%
Nice goals ↓
Lorient goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.5%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.5%
14%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.9%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.6%
4.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nice goals (down), columns = Lorient goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Marseille
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Estac Troyes
0.92
Le Mans
0.68
Nice is 0.32 points worse than Lorient in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Auxerre
1.00
Estac Troyes
0.98
Le Havre
0.94
Angers
0.85
Le Mans
0.72
Nice is 0.27 goals worse than Lorient in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
2.09
Le Mans
2.84
Nice is 0.19 goals worse than Lorient in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Nice is 1.3 percentage points better than Lorient in terms of average possession (47% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nice
For 5.5 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
For 3.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 11.1 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nice
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.0
10.3
4.1
4.0
4.3
23.8
23.4
24.2
vs Stronger (5)
8.2
7.5
8.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.0
22.5
25.0
vs Similar (40)
10.9
10.9
10.9
4.2
4.1
4.3
23.6
23.2
24.1
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
13.3
7.5
4.0
3.7
4.5
24.6
25.3
23.5
% over line
62%
67%
58%
62%
54%
69%
60%
54%
65%
% under line
38%
33%
42%
38%
46%
31%
40%
46%
35%
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.8
8.9
3.8
4.1
3.6
23.1
21.8
24.4
vs Stronger (10)
8.8
8.2
9.4
4.2
4.8
3.6
24.2
24.0
24.4
vs Similar (28)
8.9
8.7
9.0
4.0
4.4
3.6
22.9
21.9
23.9
vs Weaker (12)
8.8
9.4
8.3
3.2
2.8
3.5
22.8
20.0
25.5
% over line
41%
42%
40%
54%
52%
56%
54%
48%
60%
% under line
59%
58%
60%
46%
48%
44%
46%
52%
40%
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.5
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.8
Estac Troyes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.5
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.5
Le Mans
27.3
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.8
Lyon
25.4
Toulouse
25.4
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.8
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.1
Paris FC
22.6
Angers
22.5
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.5%
@ 1.88+5.9%
Under 9.5
44.5%
@ 1.85-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.3%
@ 1.59-6.2%
Under 3.5
47.7%
@ 2.25+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.6%
@ 1.65+4.8%
Under 21.5
39.4%
@ 2.08-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.00
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nice or Draw✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.31
Edge
-2.8%
42%
29%
30%
covers Nice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.30
Nice or Lorient✗ Miss
72.6%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.31
Edge
+0.5%
42%
29%
30%
covers Nice + Lorient
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Draw or Lorient✓ Hit
58.2%
Avg Implied 56.0% · @ 1.68
Edge
+2.2%
42%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Lorient
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
William Hil
1.70
Betano
1.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nice over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
78.2%
@ 1.23+2.5%
Under
21.8%
@ 3.82-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.94
Unibet
3.90
1xBet
3.80
Nice over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.9%
@ 2.20+2.3%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.63-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Nice over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 4.86+0.4%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.16-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.20
888Sport
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Nice over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 11.37-1.5%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.20
Superbet
12.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Lorient over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.2%
@ 1.39+5.4%
Under
27.8%
@ 2.80-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.76
Lorient over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.6%
@ 2.98+5.2%
Under
63.4%
@ 1.36-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.16
1xBet
3.12
Marathonbet
3.12
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Lorient over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 7.66+1.6%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.06-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
888Sport
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Lorient over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 20.38-0.6%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nice, so a minus line means Nice give that many goals of a start and Lorient receive them. At -1, Nice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nice)Actual: Lorient
Nice -2
8.4%
@ 8.82-1.7%
Draw -2
12.9%
@ 5.83-2.4%
Lorient +2
78.7%
@ 1.19+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
9.50
Superbet
9.10
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Away
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
Handicap -1 (Nice)Actual: Lorient
Nice -1
21.3%
@ 4.09-0.9%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 3.77-3.5%
Lorient +1
58.2%
@ 1.68+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.80
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Away
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Handicap +1 (Nice)Actual: Nice
Nice +1
69.2%
@ 1.30-0.0%
Draw +1
17.1%
@ 4.82-1.7%
Lorient -1
13.8%
@ 7.45+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Draw
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Nice)Actual: Nice
Nice +2
86.2%
@ 1.06+0.4%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 9.75-0.3%
Lorient -2
4.7%
@ 19.00-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.36
0.79
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.20
0.84
0.27
0.82
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.14
0.67
0.00
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.43
0.75
0.42
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
-
-
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.3%
@ 1.41+2.6%
Under 0.5
30.7%
@ 2.82-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
Under
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
2.94
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.93+1.9%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.39-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.08
Pinnacle
3.07
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.9%
@ 7.57-0.5%
Under 2.5
88.1%
@ 1.07+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.20
William Hil
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.7%
@ 1.94-2.4%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.79+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.82
Unibet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Nice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 5.88-4.4%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
Betano
5.80
Superbet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Nice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 15.38-4.1%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Lorient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 2.35+3.9%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.54-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Lorient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 8.18-0.7%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Lorient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 22.25-1.9%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.07
0.79
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.56
1.00
0.55
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.86
0.67
0.33
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.76
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.7%
Under 1.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.4%
Under 2.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.10
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.07
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
1.06
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.8%
1.08
10Bet
1.14
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
1.32
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
-
-
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.4%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
75.8%
1.37
1xBet
1.37
-
-
-
-
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.9%
1.28
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.23
-
-
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.6%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.2%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.2%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nice · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elye Wahi37%
Zoumana Diallo25%
Terem Moffi20%
Sofiane Diop20%
Kaïl Boudache16%
Djibril Coulibaly14%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi6%
Antoine Mendy5%
Tom Louchet5%
Melvin Bard5%
Jonathan Clauss4%
Tiago Gouveia4%
Isak Jansson3%
Hicham Boudaoui3%
Charles Vanhoutte3%
Kojo Peprah Oppong2%
Morgan Sanson2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Elye Wahi32%
Charles Vanhoutte26%
Antoine Mendy22%
Hicham Boudaoui22%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga20%
Abdulay Juma Bah20%
Tiago Gouveia16%
Salis Abdul Samed14%
Kojo Peprah Oppong14%
Melvin Bard14%
Morgan Sanson13%
Sofiane Diop11%
Dante11%
Kaïl Boudache11%
Isak Jansson10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Bernard Nguene8%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Maxime Dupé7%
Tom Louchet7%
Jonathan Clauss7%
Yehvann Diouf3%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Terem Moffi0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Everton Pereira0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jonathan Clauss24%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Elye Wahi11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Charles Vanhoutte8%
Tanguy Ndombélé8%
Sofiane Diop7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Dante5%
Tom Louchet5%
Morgan Sanson4%
Salis Abdul Samed4%
Melvin Bard2%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Ali Abdi0%
Terem Moffi0%
Isak Jansson0%
Tiago Gouveia0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Antoine Mendy0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elye Wahi21%
Sofiane Diop13%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Tiago Gouveia8%
Terem Moffi7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Ali Abdi6%
Jérémie Boga5%
Isak Jansson3%
Antoine Mendy2%
Tom Louchet2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Morgan Sanson0%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Jonathan Clauss0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Melvin Bard0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Lorient · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng44%
Pablo Pagis28%
Aiyegun Tosin18%
Noah Cadiou13%
Jean-Victor Makengo11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Sambou Soumano9%
Théo Le Bris6%
Karim Dermane6%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Arsène Kouassi6%
Panos Katseris6%
Igor Silva5%
Laurent Abergel3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoulaye Faye42%
Laurent Abergel27%
Bamo Meïté21%
Panos Katseris17%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng16%
Mohamed Bamba16%
Arsène Kouassi15%
Bingourou Kamara14%
Montassar Talbi13%
Arthur Avom Ebong12%
Noah Cadiou6%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Igor Silva5%
Aiyegun Tosin4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsène Kouassi18%
Pablo Pagis12%
Panos Katseris11%
Igor Silva11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Bamo Meïté10%
Théo Le Bris9%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Darlin Yongwa4%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng4%
Noah Cadiou3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng32%
Pablo Pagis25%
Aiyegun Tosin11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Nathaniel Adjei6%
Noah Cadiou3%
Sambou Soumano3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Karim Dermane0%
Panos Katseris0%
Arsène Kouassi0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Nice's squad is €66m more valuable than Lorient's (€152m vs €87m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Nice's attack is €42m more valuable than Lorient's (€62m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Nice's midfield is €1m less valuable than Lorient's (€31m vs €32m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Nice's defence is €25m more valuable than Lorient's (€60m vs €35m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Monaco
Paris FC
Lille
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Toulouse
Auxerre