Defensive solidity is the headline of this encounter. Niki Volos have not conceded in their last five home fixtures, and their average goals conceded per match is zero, while Larisa, on the road, typically concedes 1.43 goals. The model sees a 39% chance of a home win, 35% for a draw and 26% for an away win, with the home win the clear favourite. The expected total goals is 1.8, so a tight game is projected, with the most likely total of two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 17.5% chance. Niki Volos average 1.6 goals scored at home against similar opposition, whereas Larisa average 1.0 away. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with an 88.8% probability and Under 2.5 with a 72.5% probability. The model’s selection for the match result is a home win.
Results analysis
The upset came as Niki Volos, the pre-match favourite, failed to secure the win, with Larisa snatching a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 39 percent, but the result proved wrong. The prediction model’s other selections were mixed: Under 3.5 goals hit at 88.8 percent, while Under 2.5 missed at 72.5 percent. Niki Volos had been unbeaten in their last five, yet Larisa, fresh from a 0-4 loss, turned the tables. The match finished 1-2, confirming the away side’s triumph and the model’s incorrect favourite call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Niki Volos win✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larisa win✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Niki Volos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
0.62
1.75
0.12
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.73
1.60
0.00
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.40
2.00
0.33
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
56% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.00
1.27
1.13
1.53
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.50
1.50
3.50
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.27
1.00
1.12
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (13)
1.85
0.31
1.60
0.20
2.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Niki Volos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.6%
Under 1.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
27.5%
Under 2.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
11.2%
Under 3.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.5%
No
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.5%
1-0
15.3%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
11.6%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
6.8%
1-2 ✓
5.3%
0-2
5.1%
Niki Volos goals ↓
Larisa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
12%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
1
15%
15%
5.3%
1.4%
0.3%
2
8.5%
6.8%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
3
2.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Niki Volos goals (down), columns = Larisa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Xanthi FC
3.00
Kifisia
2.33
Kallithea
2.30
Panserraikos
2.26
Larisa
2.04
Apollon Smirnis
2.00
Iraklis 1908
1.85
Niki Volos
1.81
Kissamikos
1.78
PAOK II
1.70
Kalamata
1.68
OF Ierapetra
1.67
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.63
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.52
Ilioupoli
1.46
Panachaiki FC
1.44
Almopos
1.22
Panathinaikos II
1.18
Egaleo
1.15
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.11
Apollon Pontou
1.07
Diagoras
1.04
Veria
1.04
Proodeftiki
0.96
AEK Athens II
0.96
Iraklis Larissa
0.85
Apollon Larissa FC
0.67
Thesprotos
0.63
Episkopi
0.48
PAO Rouf
0.35
Irodotos
0.24
Ergotelis
0.00
Niki Volos is 0.22 points worse than Larisa in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 2.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kifisia
2.15
Iraklis 1908
1.96
Kallithea
1.85
PAOK II
1.78
Larisa
1.74
Panserraikos
1.48
Niki Volos
1.41
Panathinaikos II
1.39
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.37
OF Ierapetra
1.33
Apollon Smirnis
1.32
Diagoras
1.31
Kissamikos
1.30
Ilioupoli
1.29
Kalamata
1.18
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.15
Panachaiki FC
1.07
AEK Athens II
1.00
Xanthi FC
1.00
Veria
0.93
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.93
Egaleo
0.89
Thesprotos
0.85
PAO Rouf
0.85
Proodeftiki
0.74
Almopos
0.74
Apollon Pontou
0.67
Apollon Larissa FC
0.53
Iraklis Larissa
0.52
Episkopi
0.52
Irodotos
0.35
Ergotelis
0.00
Niki Volos is 0.33 goals worse than Larisa in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Xanthi FC
0.00
Panserraikos
0.48
Kifisia
0.59
Kalamata
0.61
Almopos
0.63
Kissamikos
0.67
Larisa
0.70
Apollon Smirnis
0.71
Niki Volos
0.74
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.78
Iraklis 1908
0.81
Kallithea
0.81
OF Ierapetra
0.93
Ergotelis
1.00
Panachaiki FC
1.07
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.11
Ilioupoli
1.14
Egaleo
1.15
Veria
1.19
PAOK II
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.30
AEK Athens II
1.30
Proodeftiki
1.37
Apollon Pontou
1.37
Panathinaikos II
1.46
Iraklis Larissa
1.56
Diagoras
1.62
Thesprotos
1.81
Episkopi
1.96
Irodotos
2.00
PAO Rouf
2.27
Apollon Larissa FC
3.07
Niki Volos is 0.04 goals worse than Larisa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.74 vs 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Niki Volos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.56
0.88
0.12
0.25
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
56% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.87
0.47
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.53
0.75
0.38
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.23
1.40
0.20
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Niki Volos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Niki Volos over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niki Volos over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niki Volos over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Niki Volos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.06
0.88
0.00
0.88
0.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.09
0.60
0.00
0.17
0.17
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
94% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.40
0.67
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.73
0.25
0.75
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.08
0.20
0.00
1.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Niki Volos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Niki Volos over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niki Volos over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niki Volos over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larisa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ángelo Sagal21%
Ľubomír Tupta20%
Giannis Pasas15%
Petros Bagalianis14%
Leandro Garate14%
Amr Warda12%
Facundo Pérez12%
Gaël Kakuta8%
Soufiane Chakla8%
Konstantinos Apostolakis7%
Yvann Maçon6%
Jani Atanasov3%
Christos Giousis0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Athanasios Papageorgiou0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Paschalis Staikos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Pione Sisto0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Savvas Mourgos0%
Goni Naor0%
Zisis Chatzistravos0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou0%
King Faisal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lazar Rosić43%
Epameinondas Pantelakis40%
Bojan Kovačević38%
Yvann Maçon33%
Jani Atanasov32%
Soufiane Chakla31%
Theocharis Iliadis30%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Petros Bagalianis29%
Savvas Mourgos26%
Ángelo Sagal25%
Facundo Pérez24%
Theodoros Venetikidis22%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou22%
Vasilios Sourlis22%
Goni Naor21%
Leandro Garate21%
Athanasios Papageorgiou18%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson18%
Paschalis Staikos17%
Nikolaos Melissas15%
Christos Giousis14%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos14%
Amr Warda12%
Dylan Batubinsika12%
Erick Ferigra11%
Pione Sisto10%
Zisis Chatzistravos9%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis8%
Giannis Pasas7%
Ľubomír Tupta6%
Gaël Kakuta0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Luca Andrada0%
King Faisal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gaël Kakuta17%
Amr Warda12%
Ángelo Sagal11%
Pione Sisto10%
Athanasios Papageorgiou9%
Savvas Mourgos9%
Paschalis Staikos8%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis8%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson6%
Ľubomír Tupta6%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou6%
Erick Ferigra5%
Goni Naor5%
Giannis Pasas4%
Leandro Garate3%
Jani Atanasov3%
Christos Giousis0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Yvann Maçon0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Soufiane Chakla0%
Facundo Pérez0%
Zisis Chatzistravos0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
King Faisal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jani Atanasov23%
Ľubomír Tupta20%
Christos Giousis14%
Ángelo Sagal14%
Pione Sisto10%
Leandro Garate7%
Yvann Maçon6%
Zisis Chatzistravos4%
Facundo Pérez3%
Amr Warda0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Athanasios Papageorgiou0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Paschalis Staikos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Giannis Pasas0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Gaël Kakuta0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Savvas Mourgos0%
Goni Naor0%
Soufiane Chakla0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou0%
King Faisal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (28)
€11m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ILI (31)
€4m
MN (29)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
Niki Volos's squad is €1m more valuable than Larisa's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
EGA (19)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
I1 (6)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Niki Volos and Larisa have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
I1 (7)
€3m
KAL (6)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
Niki Volos and Larisa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
MN (15)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Niki Volos and Larisa have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Greece: Super League 2 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kifisia
Kallithea
Panserraikos
Apollon Smirnis
Iraklis 1908
Kissamikos
Kalamata
PAOK II
OF Ierapetra
Anagennisi Karditsas
Ilioupoli
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Panachaiki FC
Almopos
Panathinaikos II
Egaleo
Makedonikos Neapolis
Apollon Pontou
Veria
Diagoras
AEK Athens II
Proodeftiki
Iraklis Larissa
Thesprotos
Episkopi
Apollon Larissa FC
PAO Rouf
Irodotos
Xanthi FC
Ergotelis