Niva’s recent win streak and a 6-0 demolition of Osipovichy set a high-scoring tone, while Bumprom’s return from a 1-4 loss to FC Slutsk suggests defensive frailty. The model favours a home win, with a 55% chance, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals sit at 3.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.3% probability. Niva averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.75 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Bumprom scores 1.57 and concedes 1.29 on the road. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Home +2 handicap (90.7%), Under 5.5 (88.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.7%), and Over 1.5 (85.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Niva win
54.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bumprom win
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Niva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.67
2.13
1.60
2.20
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.96
1.83
1.75
1.82
2.18
vs Weaker (7)
3.29
0.71
3.33
1.00
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.23
2.46
0.92
1.41
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
2.00
1.12
2.60
0.90
1.57
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.4%
Under 2.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
Niva goals ↓
Bumprom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.6%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
1
6.5%
10%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.7%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.3%
6.6%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.7%
3.4%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Niva goals (down), columns = Bumprom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Niva is 1.20 points better than Bumprom in terms of average points per game (2.57 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Niva is 1.64 goals better than Bumprom in terms of goals scored per game (3.14 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Niva is 0.48 goals better than Bumprom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Niva or Draw
78.0%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers Niva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva or Bumprom
76.9%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers Niva + Bumprom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bumprom
45.1%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers Draw + Bumprom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Niva over/under 0.5
Over
87.2%
Under
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 3.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Niva, so a minus line means Niva give that many goals of a start and Bumprom receive them. At -1, Niva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Niva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Niva)
Niva -2
16.6%
Draw -2
16.9%
Bumprom +2
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Niva)
Niva -1
33.5%
Draw -1
21.4%
Bumprom +1
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Niva)
Niva +1
78.0%
Draw +1
12.7%
Bumprom -1
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Niva)
Niva +2
90.7%
Draw +2
6.3%
Bumprom -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Niva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
0.93
0.67
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.09
0.83
0.75
0.91
1.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.62
0.38
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.42
0.80
0.20
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.0%
Under 1.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Niva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.20
0.93
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.87
1.00
1.00
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.85
0.54
0.65
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.71
1.80
0.70
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
Under 0.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.7%
Under 1.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.9%
Under 2.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.0%
Under
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Niva and Bumprom have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Niva and Bumprom have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Niva and Bumprom have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Niva and Bumprom have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II