Niva’s recent 6-0 triumph over Osipovichy fuels optimism, while Orsha’s 2-1 win against Slonim suggests resilience on the road. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.7 goals and a 21% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Niva, a 9.3% probability. Home advantage is clear: Niva averages one goal scored and one conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Orsha, playing away against stronger sides, also averages one goal scored but concedes slightly more at 1.12. The model favours a home win, with a 58% probability, a draw at 21%, and an away win also at 21%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.8% and Over 2.5 goals at 70.8%. The edge for each pick is noted.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction was spot on as Niva secured a 2-1 win over Orsha, extending their recent run of victories. The favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 58% probability and proved correct. The expected total of 3.7 goals was close to the actual 3, with the most likely scoreline 2-1 hitting the 9.3% probability. The model’s selections also performed well: Over 1.5 goals, with an 88.8% chance, hit, and Over 2.5 goals, at 70.8%, also hit. All outcomes align with the data, confirming the model’s accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Niva win✓ Hit
58.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Niva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.03
2.13
1.13
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.76
1.16
2.15
1.15
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orsha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.53
1.20
1.27
1.47
1.80
vs Stronger (16)
1.12
1.25
1.25
1.38
1.00
1.12
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.86
1.14
1.14
2.00
2.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.8%
Under 2.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.5%
No
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.3%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
1-0
5.1%
Niva goals ↓
Orsha goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.7%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
1
5.1%
8.8%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
2
6.9%
9.3%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
5.3%
7.1%
4.8%
2.2%
0.7%
4
3.1%
4.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Niva goals (down), columns = Orsha goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
Niva is 0.88 points better than Orsha in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
Niva is 0.76 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
Niva is 1.09 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 2.74).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Niva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.44
0.92
0.46
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orsha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.73
0.60
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.56
0.62
0.62
0.38
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.57
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Niva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.13
0.73
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.72
1.23
0.69
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orsha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.47
0.67
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.75
0.62
0.62
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.14
0.29
0.57
1.43
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Niva and Orsha have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Niva and Orsha have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Niva and Orsha have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Niva and Orsha have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Baranovichi
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Lokomotiv Gomel
Belshina
Lida
Bumprom
BATE II
Ostrovets FC
Minsk II
Volna
ABFF U19
Dinamo Minsk II
Uni Minsk
Gomel II
Osipovichy
Slonim