Niva are the clear favourites, with a 57 % chance of triumph, 24 % for a draw and 19 % for Osipovichy. The model predicts a 3-goal match on average, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1 % chance. Niva, playing at home against a weaker side, normally scores 1.75 goals and concedes 1.00, while Osipovichy, away to a stronger opponent, averages 0.92 goals scored and 2.08 conceded. The suggested selections are: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.1 %, Under 7.598.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals98.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals97.6 %, Under 6.596.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals93.4 %, Home +2 handicap92.5 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals92.5 %. Niva’s recent run of LWWWW, after a defeat, and Osipovichy’s WDWLW streak, following a win, set the stage for a tight contest.
Results analysis
The final score of 6-0 confirmed Niva’s home dominance, extending their recent run of victories and matching the model’s prediction of a home win. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct, with a 57% probability. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.2%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.4%, Home +2 handicap hit at 92.5%, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.5%, while Home under 2.5 HT goals missed at 92.9%. The model’s selections largely came through, underscoring the accuracy of its form and probability assessments.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Niva win✓ Hit
57.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy win✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Niva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.73
1.86
1.71
2.25
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.88
1.96
1.83
1.75
1.92
2.17
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
0.83
2.00
1.50
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.93
1.19
1.94
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (26)
0.96
2.08
1.07
2.07
0.83
2.08
vs Similar (4)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
6.0%
0-0
5.7%
1-2
5.4%
Niva goals ↓
Osipovichy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
4.1%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.3%
11%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.0%
6.5%
3.5%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Niva goals (down), columns = Osipovichy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Niva is 0.71 points better than Osipovichy in terms of average points per game (2.57 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Niva is 2.00 goals better than Osipovichy in terms of goals scored per game (3.14 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Niva is 0.29 goals better than Osipovichy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Niva or Draw✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
19%
covers Niva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva or Osipovichy✓ Hit
76.4%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
19%
covers Niva + Osipovichy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Osipovichy✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
19%
covers Draw + Osipovichy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Niva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.6%
Under
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Niva, so a minus line means Niva give that many goals of a start and Osipovichy receive them. At -1, Niva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Niva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Niva)Actual: Niva
Niva -2
16.9%
Draw -2
17.7%
Osipovichy +2
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Niva)Actual: Niva
Niva -1
34.6%
Draw -1
22.5%
Osipovichy +1
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Niva)Actual: Niva
Niva +1
80.7%
Draw +1
11.9%
Osipovichy -1
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Niva)Actual: Niva
Niva +2
92.5%
Draw +2
5.3%
Osipovichy -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Niva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
0.71
0.71
1.06
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.04
0.83
0.75
0.92
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.88
0.57
0.86
0.42
0.92
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.4%
Under 0.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.3%
Under 1.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Niva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.83
1.14
1.00
1.19
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.13
0.62
1.12
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (26)
0.46
1.19
0.50
1.21
0.42
1.17
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.7%
Under 0.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.9%
Under 1.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Niva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Niva and Osipovichy have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →