NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, coming off a win, hosts HNK Gorica, which is still reeling from two consecutive defeats. Despite this, the model disagrees with the market, favoring a home win at 47% probability, with a 30% chance of a draw and 23% for an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. A 1-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome, occurring 13.9% of the time. When playing at home against similar opponents, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb averages 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded, while HNK Gorica averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection for the match is the home win. The model's selections are: Under 3.5, occurring 80% of the time, and Over 21.5 fouls, occurring 79.1% of the time. The home win percentage is 47%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
Results analysis
The win extends their run as NK Lokomotiva Zagreb secured a 3-1 victory over HNK Gorica. The model's call, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's selection was the favourite going into the match. The suggested picks performed as follows: Over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 79.1%, while Under 3.5 missed, with a probability of 78.3%. Over 1.5, the model's selection, hit, with a probability of 70%.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb winā Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied 46.5% · @ 1.98
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
SBO
2.02
888Sport
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Drawā Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.38
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.62
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
HNK Gorica winā Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.49
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.62
10Bet
3.60
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.53
1.43
1.50
0.88
1.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
2.00
0.83
2.33
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.26
1.88
0.88
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
1.17
1.33
0.75
1.42
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
1.47
1.11
1.44
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.27
1.22
1.22
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
@ 1.26-3.4%
Under 1.5
30.0%
@ 3.48+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.62
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.6%
@ 1.87-7.5%
Under 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.87+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Under
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.7%
@ 3.14-7.8%
Under 3.5
78.3%
@ 1.32+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.29
888Sport
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
@ 1.70-5.2%
No
51.1%
@ 2.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
BetVictor
1.70
Betano
1.70
No
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 5.92+6.8%
1-0
11.2%@ 6.92+4.9%
0-0
10.5%@ 9.53+5.9%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.74+3.1%
2-0
8.5%@ 8.91+3.6%
0-1
8.2%@ 9.34+3.5%
1-2
6.6%@ 10.46+2.4%
0-2
4.9%@ 16.56+2.2%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals ↓
HNK Gorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.2%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.5%
8.7%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.8%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals (down), columns = HNK Gorica goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.08 points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.14).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Gorica are level in goals scored per game (both 1.11).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.11 goals worse than HNK Gorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.33).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 4.1 percentage points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average possession (50% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.86
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.09
0.50
1.17
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.63
0.88
0.62
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.67
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.56
0.78
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.67
0.78
0.56
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.64
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.91
0.33
1.17
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.63
1.00
0.25
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.80
0.56
0.67
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.60
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.8%
1.26
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
-
-
+8.6%
ā Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
1.41
Superbet
1.41
-
-
-
-
+16.3%
ā Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 3.5
78.3%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.31
+7.8%
ā Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.4%
1.45
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+8.8%
ā Miss
Over 1.5
70.0%
1.26
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-3.4%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
DuÅ”an VukoviÄ50%
Ivan KatiÄ33%
Noel ÄurkoviÄ33%
Athanasios Triantafyllou25%
Josip Posavec0%
Jakov-Anton Vasilj0%
Leon Belcar0%
Marcel Lorber0%
Matija SubotiÄ0%
Dominik Thaqi0%
Teodor Kralevski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivan KatiÄ100%
Leon Belcar33%
Athanasios Triantafyllou25%
Marcel Lorber25%
Dominik Thaqi25%
Josip Posavec0%
Jakov-Anton Vasilj0%
DuÅ”an VukoviÄ0%
Matija SubotiÄ0%
Noel ÄurkoviÄ0%
Teodor Kralevski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
DuÅ”an VukoviÄ25%
Matija SubotiÄ25%
Josip Posavec0%
Jakov-Anton Vasilj0%
Leon Belcar0%
Athanasios Triantafyllou0%
Marcel Lorber0%
Ivan KatiÄ0%
Dominik Thaqi0%
Noel ÄurkoviÄ0%
Teodor Kralevski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
DuÅ”an VukoviÄ25%
Josip Posavec0%
Jakov-Anton Vasilj0%
Leon Belcar0%
Athanasios Triantafyllou0%
Marcel Lorber0%
Ivan KatiÄ0%
Matija SubotiÄ0%
Dominik Thaqi0%
Noel ÄurkoviÄ0%
Teodor Kralevski0%
HNK Gorica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno BogojeviÄ40%
Stefan PeriÄ0%
Jakov FilipoviÄ0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj PaviÄiÄ0%
Davor MatijaŔ0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Patrik MijiÄ0%
Ivan CvijanoviÄ0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Luka VrziÄ0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan KuÄiÅ”0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan PeriÄ20%
Domagoj PaviÄiÄ20%
Patrik MijiÄ20%
Ivan CvijanoviÄ20%
Ante Kavelj20%
Jakov FilipoviÄ0%
Filip Braut0%
Bruno BogojeviÄ0%
Davor MatijaŔ0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Luka VrziÄ0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan KuÄiÅ”0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka VrziÄ25%
Stefan PeriÄ0%
Jakov FilipoviÄ0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj PaviÄiÄ0%
Bruno BogojeviÄ0%
Davor MatijaŔ0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Patrik MijiÄ0%
Ivan CvijanoviÄ0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan KuÄiÅ”0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrik MijiÄ60%
Bruno BogojeviÄ40%
Stefan PeriÄ0%
Jakov FilipoviÄ0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj PaviÄiÄ0%
Davor MatijaŔ0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Ivan CvijanoviÄ0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Luka VrziÄ0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan KuÄiÅ”0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's squad is €2m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€10m vs €9m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack is €1m less valuable than HNK Gorica's (€3m vs €4m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's midfield is €2m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€3m vs €2m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's defence is €1m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€4m vs €3m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo