NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo Result & Analysis

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are the clear favourites, with a 44% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of a Slaven Belupo win. The model expects 2.6 goals overall, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% probability. Lokomotiva’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and one conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Slaven Belupo’s away form averages 1.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.7%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 82.3%, Under 10.5 corners at 73.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.3% and Under 5.5 cards at 70.7%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided. The match is likely to be a tightly contested 1-1 draw.

The pre-match favourite, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Lokomotiva, after three straight defeats, had a shaky run, while Slaven Belupo, coming off a loss, also struggled. The model had set a 44% probability for a home win, but the outcome was a draw. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.7% chance, hit, as did Over 19.5 fouls (90.5%), Over 2.5 cards (82.4%), Under 11.5 corners (82.3%), Over 21.5 fouls (81.3%), Under 3.5 (73.4%), and Under 10.5 corners (73.1%). The only miss was Under 5.5 cards (70.7%).