This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.17
1.00
1.33
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.33
0.83
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.94
1.06
1.11
1.56
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.2%
1-0
10.9%
0-1 ✓
9.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.7%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals ↓
NK Varazdin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.3%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.6%
8.2%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals (down), columns = NK Varazdin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.28 points worse than NK Varazdin in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.47 goals better than NK Varazdin in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.83 goals worse than NK Varazdin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.9 percentage points worse than NK Varazdin in terms of average possession (50% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
For 7.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
For 3.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.7
10.8
4.4
3.8
5.1
26.2
25.0
27.6
vs Stronger (17)
10.4
9.4
11.5
4.2
3.9
4.6
25.4
24.8
26.0
vs Similar (33)
10.9
11.4
10.4
4.5
3.8
5.3
26.7
25.1
28.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
73%
67%
56%
50%
62%
80%
69%
92%
% under line
30%
27%
33%
44%
50%
38%
20%
31%
8%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.9
4.1
3.7
25.2
26.3
24.3
vs Stronger (17)
9.8
10.5
9.0
3.5
4.6
2.4
22.6
25.4
20.1
vs Similar (33)
9.8
9.5
10.2
4.1
3.8
4.3
26.6
26.7
26.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
52%
52%
58%
67%
50%
80%
78%
81%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
42%
33%
50%
20%
22%
19%
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.7
NK Varazdin
9.8
NK Osijek
9.5
Sibenik
9.2
NK Slaven Belupo
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
Dinamo Zagreb
9.0
HNK Rijeka
8.8
HNK Gorica
8.6
Istra 1961
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
4.9
HNK Rijeka
4.8
Dinamo Zagreb
4.8
NK Slaven Belupo
4.7
Sibenik
4.6
NK Osijek
4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.5
HNK Hajduk Split
4.4
NK Varazdin
4.0
HNK Gorica
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
29.2
NK Osijek
26.5
HNK Rijeka
26.2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.2
NK Slaven Belupo
25.6
Dinamo Zagreb
25.4
NK Varazdin
25.3
HNK Hajduk Split
24.4
HNK Gorica
23.7
Sibenik
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.9%
Under 9.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.9%
Under 3.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.3%
Under 21.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.75
0.86
0.71
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.53
0.53
0.20
0.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.39
0.56
0.67
0.22
0.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.73
0.67
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.17
0.57
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.72
0.88
0.38
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.67
0.56
0.89
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Duje Čop29%
Robert Mudražija28%
Komnen Andrić13%
Silvio Goričan12%
Dušan Vuković12%
Fran Karačić12%
Luka Vrbančić12%
Mirko Sušak10%
Art Smakaj6%
Marko Vranjković6%
Denis Kolinger4%
Marin Leovac0%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Leonardo Sigali0%
Denis Bušnja0%
Zvonimir Šubarić0%
Marko Pajač0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Luka Dajčer0%
Moreno Živković0%
Mody Boune0%
Filip Čuić0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Feta Fetai0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Ivan Katić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Mersinaj57%
Feta Fetai45%
Art Smakaj35%
Ivan Katić33%
Marin Leovac32%
Denis Kolinger30%
Marko Pajač24%
Leonardo Sigali23%
Fran Karačić21%
Silvio Goričan19%
Marko Vranjković18%
Luka Dajčer17%
Luka Vrbančić16%
Moreno Živković14%
Duje Čop12%
Dušan Vuković8%
Komnen Andrić7%
Robert Mudražija6%
Zvonimir Šubarić6%
Mirko Sušak5%
Denis Bušnja0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Mody Boune0%
Filip Čuić0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mody Boune17%
Fabijan Krivak14%
Art Smakaj13%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Dušan Vuković12%
Fran Karačić12%
Marko Pajač12%
Duje Čop12%
Denis Bušnja11%
Silvio Goričan9%
Robert Mudražija3%
Marin Leovac0%
Komnen Andrić0%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Leonardo Sigali0%
Denis Kolinger0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Zvonimir Šubarić0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Luka Dajčer0%
Moreno Živković0%
Filip Čuić0%
Luka Vrbančić0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Feta Fetai0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Mirko Sušak0%
Ivan Katić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Duje Čop35%
Robert Mudražija16%
Fran Karačić12%
Silvio Goričan9%
Komnen Andrić7%
Art Smakaj6%
Dušan Vuković4%
Marin Leovac0%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Leonardo Sigali0%
Denis Bušnja0%
Denis Kolinger0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Zvonimir Šubarić0%
Marko Pajač0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Luka Dajčer0%
Moreno Živković0%
Mody Boune0%
Filip Čuić0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Luka Vrbančić0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Feta Fetai0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Mirko Sušak0%
Ivan Katić0%
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dimitar Mitrovski26%
Michele Šego18%
Leon Belcar16%
Matej Vuk14%
Luka Mamić11%
Aleksa Latković8%
Mate Antunović6%
Tomislav Duvnjak4%
Lamine Ba3%
Frane Maglica3%
Marko Dabro3%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jaime Sierra50%
Leon Belcar32%
Lamine Ba27%
Mario Marina25%
Tomislav Duvnjak25%
Karlo Lusavec25%
Atdhe Mazari20%
Dimitar Mitrovski19%
Enes Alić18%
Mario Mladenovski15%
Novak Tepšić15%
Jurica Poldrugač15%
Mario Čuić14%
Aleksa Latković12%
Marko Dabro12%
Ivan Nekić12%
Mate Antunović12%
Vane Jovanov10%
Antonio Boršić9%
Matej Vuk7%
Oliver Zelenika6%
Michele Šego6%
Luka Škaričić6%
Luka Mamić4%
Frane Maglica3%
Mateo Barać0%
Josip Silić0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka Mamić15%
Michele Šego12%
Frane Maglica9%
Jurica Poldrugač7%
Marko Dabro6%
Dimitar Mitrovski4%
Mateo Barać0%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Aleksa Latković0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Mate Antunović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michele Šego35%
Matej Vuk21%
Marko Dabro12%
Jurica Poldrugač11%
Dimitar Mitrovski11%
Mate Antunović6%
Aleksa Latković4%
Luka Mamić4%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's squad is €1m less valuable than NK Varazdin's (€10m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack is €3m less valuable than NK Varazdin's (€3m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's midfield is €2m more valuable than NK Varazdin's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →