This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.50
1.79
0.36
1.81
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.86
0.41
1.79
0.36
1.93
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
6.4%
0-1 ✓
6.2%
2-2
5.1%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals ↓
Sibenik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.2%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.9%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.5%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.1%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals (down), columns = Sibenik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.25 points better than Sibenik in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.47 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 0.17 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is 4.8 percentage points better than Sibenik in terms of average possession (50% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
For 6.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
For 1.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.6
4.5
3.8
5.1
26.2
25.0
27.4
vs Stronger (17)
10.4
9.4
11.5
4.2
3.9
4.6
25.4
24.8
26.0
vs Similar (33)
10.7
11.2
10.2
4.6
3.8
5.3
26.7
25.2
28.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
72%
64%
58%
52%
64%
80%
68%
92%
% under line
32%
28%
36%
42%
48%
36%
20%
32%
8%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.5
9.3
1.1
1.3
1.0
20.8
22.1
19.7
vs Stronger (6)
7.3
8.0
7.0
3.3
6.5
1.8
16.2
17.0
15.8
vs Similar (44)
10.5
10.0
11.2
0.8
0.9
0.8
23.4
23.8
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
50%
33%
16%
16%
16%
59%
75%
44%
% under line
59%
50%
67%
84%
84%
84%
41%
25%
56%
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.6
NK Varazdin
9.8
NK Osijek
9.5
NK Slaven Belupo
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.2
Sibenik
9.1
Dinamo Zagreb
8.7
HNK Rijeka
8.7
Istra 1961
8.5
HNK Gorica
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
5.0
HNK Rijeka
5.0
Dinamo Zagreb
4.8
Sibenik
4.6
NK Osijek
4.6
NK Slaven Belupo
4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.6
HNK Hajduk Split
4.5
NK Varazdin
4.0
HNK Gorica
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
28.9
NK Osijek
26.7
HNK Rijeka
26.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.2
Dinamo Zagreb
25.6
NK Slaven Belupo
25.5
NK Varazdin
25.2
HNK Gorica
24.2
HNK Hajduk Split
24.2
Sibenik
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.3%
Under 9.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.6%
Under 3.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.0%
Under 21.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.75
0.86
0.71
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.28
0.50
0.38
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.79
0.21
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.24
0.79
0.21
0.80
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.17
0.57
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.78
1.00
0.50
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.20
1.00
0.14
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.07
0.17
1.00
0.14
1.13
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Duje Čop29%
Robert Mudražija28%
Komnen Andrić13%
Silvio Goričan12%
Dušan Vuković12%
Fran Karačić12%
Luka Vrbančić12%
Mirko Sušak10%
Art Smakaj6%
Marko Vranjković6%
Denis Kolinger4%
Marin Leovac0%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Leonardo Sigali0%
Denis Bušnja0%
Zvonimir Šubarić0%
Marko Pajač0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Luka Dajčer0%
Moreno Živković0%
Mody Boune0%
Filip Čuić0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Feta Fetai0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Ivan Katić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Mersinaj57%
Feta Fetai45%
Art Smakaj35%
Ivan Katić33%
Marin Leovac32%
Denis Kolinger30%
Marko Pajač24%
Leonardo Sigali23%
Fran Karačić21%
Silvio Goričan19%
Marko Vranjković18%
Luka Dajčer17%
Luka Vrbančić16%
Moreno Živković14%
Duje Čop12%
Dušan Vuković8%
Komnen Andrić7%
Robert Mudražija6%
Zvonimir Šubarić6%
Mirko Sušak5%
Denis Bušnja0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Mody Boune0%
Filip Čuić0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mody Boune17%
Fabijan Krivak14%
Art Smakaj13%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Dušan Vuković12%
Fran Karačić12%
Marko Pajač12%
Duje Čop12%
Denis Bušnja11%
Silvio Goričan9%
Robert Mudražija3%
Marin Leovac0%
Komnen Andrić0%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Leonardo Sigali0%
Denis Kolinger0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Zvonimir Šubarić0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Luka Dajčer0%
Moreno Živković0%
Filip Čuić0%
Luka Vrbančić0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Feta Fetai0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Mirko Sušak0%
Ivan Katić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Duje Čop35%
Robert Mudražija16%
Fran Karačić12%
Silvio Goričan9%
Komnen Andrić7%
Art Smakaj6%
Dušan Vuković4%
Marin Leovac0%
Jon Mersinaj0%
Leonardo Sigali0%
Denis Bušnja0%
Denis Kolinger0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Zvonimir Šubarić0%
Marko Pajač0%
Domagoj Antolić0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Luka Dajčer0%
Moreno Živković0%
Mody Boune0%
Filip Čuić0%
Fabijan Krivak0%
Luka Vrbančić0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Feta Fetai0%
Antonio Baždarić0%
Mirko Sušak0%
Ivan Katić0%
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Santini19%
Lovre Kulušić15%
Ivan Laća12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan8%
Morrison Agyemang6%
Josip Majić5%
Ante Kavelj4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Stefan Perić3%
Ivan Božić3%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Gačić60%
Iker Pozo37%
Ivan Santini35%
Zoran Nižić25%
Josip Majić23%
Stefan Perić21%
Ivan Božić20%
Marin Prekodravac19%
Lovro Cvek19%
Ognjen Bakić19%
Morrison Agyemang16%
Roberto Punčec16%
Antonio Đaković15%
Leonard Žuta15%
Ivan Filipović14%
Ivan Roca14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan12%
Ante Kavelj9%
Bruno Zdunić8%
Elvir Duraković6%
Toni Kolega4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Ivan Delić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Ivan Laća0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Laća12%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Elvir Duraković6%
Marin Prekodravac5%
Toni Kolega4%
Šime Gržan4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Ivan Santini3%
Morrison Agyemang3%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Santini26%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Ivan Roca5%
Ivan Laća4%
Šime Gržan4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Leonard Žuta0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Morrison Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
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Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Rijeka
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Varazdin
NK Slaven Belupo
Istra 1961
NK Osijek
HNK Gorica