PythiaFootballBETA
This encounter between NK Osijek and NK Slaven Belupo promises to be a closely contested affair. NK Osijek's recent form, having been on a 3-game winning run, will be put to the test against a struggling NK Slaven Belupo side that has suffered three consecutive defeats. The home side's home scoring and conceding averages stand at 0.89 and 1.0 goals per match respectively, while NK Slaven Belupo's away scoring and conceding averages are 1.22 and 1.56 goals per match respectively, both against similar opponent strength.
The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome, with a probability of 36%. The probability of a draw is 31%, while an away win is 33%. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 14.6%. The model's selection is the home win.
The model's suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls, which is expected to hit with a probability of 82.3%, and Under 3.5, which is also expected to hit with a probability of 80.2%. The home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
The win extends NK Osijek's run to four matches, with three consecutive victories. A 2-0 scoreline confirmed the home team's dominance, as NK Osijek secured a home win. The model correctly predicted the result, selecting the home win with a probability of 36%. The final score was 2-0, which matched the model's most likely outcome of a 1-1 draw, albeit with a low probability of 14.6%. The model's selection largely came in, with NK Osijek's home form proving decisive. The model's selection of home win was correct. The model's selection of Over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 82.3%, while Under 3.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 80.2%.
NK Osijek| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.47 | 0.71 | 1.07 | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 2.22 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.88 | 1.24 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.46 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.12 | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.24 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.62 | 1.22 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| NK Slaven Belupo goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11% | 15% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
NK OsijekNK Slaven BelupoNK Osijek| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 26.2 | 25.7 | 26.5 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 25.6 | 25.8 | 25.6 |
| vs Similar (28) | 9.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 26.1 | 25.2 | 26.9 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 10.6 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 28.2 | 28.0 | 28.5 |
| % over line | 45% | 57% | 35% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 84% | 87% | 81% |
| % under line | 55% | 43% | 65% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 16% | 13% | 19% |
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 24.7 | 24.2 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 7.5 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 25.0 | 24.8 | 25.2 |
| vs Similar (29) | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 24.5 | 23.7 | 25.4 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 22% | 27% | 17% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 69% | 65% | 74% |
| % under line | 78% | 73% | 83% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 31% | 35% | 26% |
NK Osijek| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.77 | 0.21 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.33 | 1.22 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.22 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.62 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.77 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
NK Osijek| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.69 | 1.31 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 90.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/12/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/05/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 30/11/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 15/09/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/03/24 | A | 0-1 |
NK Osijek| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 7-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
NK Slaven Belupo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 86 | 75% | 2.4 | 93 | 28 | +65 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 42% | 9.6 | 44% | 4.4 | 50% | 24.2 | 61% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 2 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 68 | 56% | 1.9 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 2.7 | 81% | 44% | 28% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 57% | 27.1 | 89% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 3 |  NK Varazdin | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.6 | 83% | 47% | 28% | 9.6 | 46% | 5.0 | 74% | 25.4 | 83% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 |  HNK Rijeka | 36 | 53 | 39% | 1.5 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 28% | 9.8 | 63% | 4.7 | 68% | 26.1 | 86% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 5 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 44 | 28% | 1.2 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 2.6 | 89% | 42% | 19% | 8.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 62% | 26.5 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 |  Istra 1961 | 36 | 43 | 33% | 1.2 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 10.0 | 49% | 4.6 | 72% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 |  HNK Gorica | 36 | 41 | 31% | 1.1 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 2.4 | 72% | 44% | 25% | 8.8 | 43% | 4.4 | 51% | 25.0 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 3.0 | 86% | 61% | 36% | 7.9 | 23% | 4.4 | 69% | 26.3 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 9 | NK Osijek | 36 | 35 | 22% | 1.0 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 2.1 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 10.2 | 49% | 5.2 | 71% | 28.3 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 10 |  Vukovar | 36 | 28 | 17% | 0.8 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 3.1 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.3 | 57% | 25.9 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 43% |