NK Osijek’s recent five-game run of LWWWW, ending with a 0-4 loss to Hajduk, sets a cautious tone, while Slaven Belupo’s WLLLL streak, capped by a 2-0 win over Gorica, suggests a team that can punch above its weight. The model favours a home win, with a 58% chance, a 26% draw probability and a 16% away win chance. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Osijek, carrying a 12.6% probability. In the match-specific context, Osijek averages 0.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Slaven Belupo averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 conceded on the road against similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (97.3% with a 9% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3% with a 7% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 10% edge).
Results analysis
NK Osijek’s victory over NK Slaven Belupo extended their winning run, ending the match 3-0 in a home win that matched the model’s prediction. The model had chosen a home win with a 58% probability, and this call proved correct. The model’s selections were largely fulfilled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.3%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection’s outcome is noted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
NK Osijek win✓ Hit
58.2%
Avg Implied 59.2% · @ 1.55
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Dafabet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
SBO
1.55
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 23.0% · @ 4.00
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.40
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.17
Marathonbet
4.10
NK Slaven Belupo win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.15
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.82
Dafabet
5.60
William Hil
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.37
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
NK Osijek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
0.60
1.00
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
3.00
0.00
2.50
0.25
3.25
vs Similar (19)
0.89
1.11
0.73
0.82
1.12
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.80
0.50
0.50
2.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Slaven Belupo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.73
1.33
1.53
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.56
1.00
2.60
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.38
1.50
1.00
1.09
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Osijek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
@ 1.18-5.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
@ 4.42+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.72
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.1%
@ 1.59-11.2%
Under 2.5
52.9%
@ 2.22+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Betfair
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
@ 2.50-11.8%
Under 3.5
74.5%
@ 1.49+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
@ 1.66-8.5%
No
52.8%
@ 2.08+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
No
1xBet
2.13
William Hil
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.4%@ 7.47+6.5%
1-1
12.1%@ 7.05+5.9%
2-0
11.7%@ 7.67+6.0%
2-1
9.6%@ 7.16+3.5%
0-0
8.9%@ 12.45+5.3%
3-0 ✓
6.8%@ 10.90+2.8%
3-1
5.6%@ 10.38+1.3%
0-1
5.2%@ 14.42+2.2%
NK Osijek goals ↓
NK Slaven Belupo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
5.2%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
12%
12%
4.5%
1.2%
0.3%
2
12%
9.6%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.8%
5.6%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.0%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Osijek goals (down), columns = NK Slaven Belupo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
HNK Gorica
1.14
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
NK Osijek is 0.17 points worse than NK Slaven Belupo in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
NK Osijek is 0.53 goals worse than NK Slaven Belupo in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
NK Osijek is 0.33 goals better than NK Slaven Belupo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
NK Osijek is 0.4 percentage points better than NK Slaven Belupo in terms of average possession (49% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Osijek
For 6.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 12.5 · Total 28.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Slaven Belupo
For 3.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Osijek
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
11.1
9.0
4.4
4.4
4.4
26.9
27.0
26.7
vs Stronger (11)
10.3
11.4
9.3
3.5
3.6
3.5
25.9
25.8
26.0
vs Similar (32)
9.7
10.9
8.7
4.7
4.9
4.5
27.0
27.3
26.8
vs Weaker (7)
10.3
11.3
9.5
4.3
3.3
5.0
27.7
28.0
27.5
% over line
49%
64%
37%
60%
65%
56%
88%
95%
81%
% under line
51%
36%
63%
40%
35%
44%
12%
5%
19%
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Slaven Belupo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.2
8.3
3.7
3.9
3.4
24.9
24.3
25.6
vs Stronger (17)
7.9
9.2
6.7
3.2
3.2
3.1
25.4
26.1
24.7
vs Similar (33)
8.4
7.7
9.3
3.9
4.2
3.5
24.7
23.5
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
27%
27%
26%
54%
50%
58%
67%
62%
74%
% under line
73%
73%
74%
46%
50%
42%
33%
38%
26%
This opponent (NK Osijek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Osijek
9.9
Rudes
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Istra 1961
9.5
HNK Rijeka
9.4
NK Varazdin
9.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.2
HNK Gorica
8.9
NK Slaven Belupo
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Rijeka
4.6
HNK Hajduk Split
4.5
Istra 1961
4.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.2
NK Slaven Belupo
4.1
Rudes
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
27.6
NK Osijek
26.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.5
HNK Rijeka
25.7
HNK Gorica
25.4
Rudes
25.3
NK Slaven Belupo
24.9
NK Varazdin
24.7
Istra 1961
23.4
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.7%
@ 1.80+2.3%
Under 9.5
46.3%
@ 1.91-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.5%
@ 1.78+11.2%
Under 3.5
37.5%
@ 1.88-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Under
Superbet
1.88
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.6%
Under 21.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
NK Osijek or Draw✓ Hit
80.0%
Avg Implied 81.8% · @ 1.13
Edge
-1.8%
58%
26%
16%
covers NK Osijek + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
NK Osijek or NK Slaven Belupo✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.20
Edge
-7.0%
58%
26%
16%
covers NK Osijek + NK Slaven Belupo
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Draw or NK Slaven Belupo✗ Miss
49.5%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.28
Edge
+8.8%
58%
26%
16%
covers Draw + NK Slaven Belupo
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
William Hil
2.30
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
NK Osijek over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.1%
@ 1.10-8.5%
Under
23.9%
@ 6.03+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
NK Osijek over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.9%
@ 1.54-18.3%
Under
58.1%
@ 2.33+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.38
NK Osijek over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
17.4%
@ 2.71-17.0%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.42+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.67
Under
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
NK Osijek over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 5.37-11.7%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.13+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Betano
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
55.5%
@ 1.47-7.6%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.52+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
10Bet
2.60
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 3.34-8.4%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.29+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 8.70-5.8%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 21.83-3.5%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to NK Osijek, so a minus line means NK Osijek give that many goals of a start and NK Slaven Belupo receive them. At -1, NK Osijek must win by two or more to land; a one-goal NK Osijek win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (NK Osijek)Actual: NK Osijek
NK Osijek -2
10.1%
@ 4.43-9.8%
Draw -2
15.8%
@ 4.42-4.2%
NK Slaven Belupo +2
74.2%
@ 1.46+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.25
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Away
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Handicap -1 (NK Osijek)Actual: NK Osijek
NK Osijek -1
25.8%
@ 2.44-10.1%
Draw -1
24.7%
@ 3.52-0.2%
NK Slaven Belupo +1
49.5%
@ 2.24+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.60
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.34
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Handicap +1 (NK Osijek)Actual: NK Osijek
NK Osijek +1
80.0%
@ 1.14+2.7%
Draw +1
13.4%
@ 6.23-0.7%
NK Slaven Belupo -1
6.6%
@ 10.17-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Handicap +2 (NK Osijek)Actual: NK Osijek
NK Osijek +2
93.4%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Draw +2
5.0%
@ 15.50-1.0%
NK Slaven Belupo -2
1.5%
@ 30.50-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Away
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
27.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Osijek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.07
0.73
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.53
0.09
0.64
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Slaven Belupo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.93
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.60
1.40
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.76
0.70
0.70
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Osijek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.4%
@ 1.29-5.7%
Under 0.5
33.6%
@ 3.33+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.1%
@ 2.33-9.6%
Under 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.54+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.3%
@ 5.26-8.3%
Under 2.5
90.7%
@ 1.12+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.20
Marathonbet
5.05
Under
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Osijek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 1.57-10.4%
Under
51.3%
@ 2.26+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.20
NK Osijek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.4%
@ 3.74-11.3%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.23+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.80
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Under
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.20
NK Osijek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 9.66-6.9%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.4%
@ 2.51+2.6%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.46-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
Superbet
2.57
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.51
10Bet
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 8.97-3.2%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.04+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.10
Superbet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 38.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Osijek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.27
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
0.64
0.18
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Slaven Belupo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Slaven Belupo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.67
0.60
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.44
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.62
0.80
0.30
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Osijek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.0%
@ 1.17-5.6%
Under 0.5
26.0%
@ 4.55+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.9%
@ 1.81-13.2%
Under 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.89+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Unibet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 3.53-12.0%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.26+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.50
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Osijek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.1%
@ 1.39-11.9%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.81+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
NK Osijek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 2.77-15.4%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.39+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Under
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
NK Osijek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 6.67-10.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.07+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.9%
@ 2.06-3.0%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.68+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.07
10Bet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.64
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 6.55-2.7%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.08+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
NK Slaven Belupo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 19.33-2.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.04
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.3%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.20
+11.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+12.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
+17.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
+15.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
80.5%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
1.32
Superbet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+12.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
80.0%
1.13
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.0%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
-8.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.5%
1.49
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.49
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.2%
1.46
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
+14.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.0%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
1.18
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.5%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
1.32
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Osijek
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nail Omerović75%
Arnel Jakupović33%
Jona Ježić33%
Ivan Dolček25%
Armando León25%
Marko Malenica0%
Roko Jurišić0%
Marcel Heister0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Senad Mustafic0%
Domagoj Bukvić0%
Luka Vrbančić0%
Šimun Mikolčić0%
Ivano Kolarik0%
Admir Ljatifi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Senad Mustafic33%
Domagoj Bukvić25%
Šimun Mikolčić25%
Arnel Jakupović0%
Marko Malenica0%
Ivan Dolček0%
Roko Jurišić0%
Marcel Heister0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Armando León0%
Nail Omerović0%
Luka Vrbančić0%
Ivano Kolarik0%
Admir Ljatifi0%
Jona Ježić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcel Heister33%
Roko Jurišić25%
Domagoj Bukvić25%
Luka Vrbančić25%
Arnel Jakupović0%
Marko Malenica0%
Ivan Dolček0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Armando León0%
Nail Omerović0%
Senad Mustafic0%
Šimun Mikolčić0%
Ivano Kolarik0%
Admir Ljatifi0%
Jona Ježić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nail Omerović100%
Domagoj Bukvić50%
Jona Ježić33%
Arnel Jakupović0%
Marko Malenica0%
Ivan Dolček0%
Roko Jurišić0%
Marcel Heister0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Armando León0%
Senad Mustafic0%
Luka Vrbančić0%
Šimun Mikolčić0%
Ivano Kolarik0%
Admir Ljatifi0%
NK Slaven Belupo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilija Nestorovski50%
Josip Mitrović25%
Alen Grgić0%
Karlo Sentić0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Ljuban Crepulja0%
Dominik Kovačić0%
Marko Dabro0%
Lovro Banovec0%
David Bosak0%
Ivan Cvetko0%
Filip Krušelj0%
Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dominik Kovačić50%
Ilija Nestorovski25%
Ljuban Crepulja25%
Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina25%
Josip Mitrović0%
Alen Grgić0%
Karlo Sentić0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Marko Dabro0%
Lovro Banovec0%
David Bosak0%
Ivan Cvetko0%
Filip Krušelj0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Dabro33%
David Bosak33%
Josip Mitrović0%
Alen Grgić0%
Karlo Sentić0%
Ilija Nestorovski0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Ljuban Crepulja0%
Dominik Kovačić0%
Lovro Banovec0%
Ivan Cvetko0%
Filip Krušelj0%
Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marko Dabro33%
Josip Mitrović0%
Alen Grgić0%
Karlo Sentić0%
Ilija Nestorovski0%
Arnór Gauti Jónsson0%
Ljuban Crepulja0%
Dominik Kovačić0%
Lovro Banovec0%
David Bosak0%
Ivan Cvetko0%
Filip Krušelj0%
Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina0%
Leon Bošnjak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
NK Osijek's squad is €7m more valuable than NK Slaven Belupo's (€15m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
NK Osijek's attack is €6m more valuable than NK Slaven Belupo's (€9m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
NK Osijek and NK Slaven Belupo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
NK Osijek's defence is €1m more valuable than NK Slaven Belupo's (€4m vs €3m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Rudes
HNK Gorica