PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Zagreb is expected to secure a convincing win against NK Slaven Belupo, with the away side's recent form and strength against weaker opponents making them the clear favourite. Dinamo Zagreb has been on a 3-game winning run, with a 5-0 thrashing of Kauno žalgiris in their previous match. In contrast, NK Slaven Belupo has struggled, with 3 straight defeats, including a 0-2 loss to Dinamo Zagreb in their last encounter.
The model predicts an away win with 60% probability, with a 17% chance of a home win and 23% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 10.9%. Dinamo Zagreb's away form is impressive, scoring an average of 2.82 goals and conceding just 0.64 against weaker opponents. NK Slaven Belupo's home form is less impressive, scoring an average of 1.57 goals and conceding 1.86.
The model's selection is the away win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 goals with 80.8% probability and Over 21.5 fouls with 76% probability. The home win percentage is 17%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 60%.
NK Slaven Belupo's 1-4 loss to Dinamo Zagreb extends their recent woes, after three straight defeats. The actual result, a 4-goal margin, was well clear of the predicted total of 3 goals. The model correctly predicted Dinamo Zagreb as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 60%. The model's selection, an away win, was the correct outcome.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 80.8%, while Over 21.5 fouls missed, with a probability of 76.0%. The final score was a 4-goal difference, far exceeding the most likely score of 1-1, which had a probability of 10.9%.
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.54 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 1.86 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.24 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.62 | 1.22 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Zagreb| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.53 | 1.23 | 2.62 | 1.31 | 2.43 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.50 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 1.83 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 3.05 | 0.80 | 3.30 | 1.00 | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
| Dinamo Zagreb goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.1% | 9.2% | 10% | 6.9% | 3.4% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 11% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 3.3% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
NK Slaven BelupoDinamo ZagrebNK Slaven Belupo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 7.6 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 |
| vs Similar (30) | 7.9 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 24.8 | 24.2 | 25.4 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 22% | 27% | 17% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 71% | 69% | 74% |
| % under line | 78% | 73% | 83% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 29% | 31% | 26% |
Dinamo Zagreb| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 23.6 | 22.0 | 25.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 9.3 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 23.8 | 23.1 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (36) | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 23.5 | 21.5 | 25.4 |
| % over line | 49% | 50% | 48% | 48% | 44% | 52% | 59% | 54% | 64% |
| % under line | 51% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 56% | 48% | 41% | 46% | 36% |
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.77 | 1.08 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Zagreb| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 1.29 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.30 | 0.30 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.77 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Zagreb| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.63 | 1.62 | 0.62 | 1.14 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.75 | 0.50 | 2.10 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 14/12/25 | H | 2-5 | |
| 28/09/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 10/05/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 09/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/12/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 4-1 | |
| 18/05/24 | H | 2-3 |
NK Slaven Belupo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-2 |
Dinamo Zagreb| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 7-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 86 | 75% | 2.4 | 93 | 28 | +65 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 42% | 9.6 | 44% | 4.4 | 50% | 24.2 | 61% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 2 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 68 | 56% | 1.9 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 2.7 | 81% | 44% | 28% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 57% | 27.1 | 89% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 3 |  NK Varazdin | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.6 | 83% | 47% | 28% | 9.6 | 46% | 5.0 | 74% | 25.4 | 83% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 |  HNK Rijeka | 36 | 53 | 39% | 1.5 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 28% | 9.8 | 63% | 4.7 | 68% | 26.1 | 86% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 5 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 44 | 28% | 1.2 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 2.6 | 89% | 42% | 19% | 8.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 62% | 26.5 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 |  Istra 1961 | 36 | 43 | 33% | 1.2 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 10.0 | 49% | 4.6 | 72% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 |  HNK Gorica | 36 | 41 | 31% | 1.1 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 2.4 | 72% | 44% | 25% | 8.8 | 43% | 4.4 | 51% | 25.0 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 3.0 | 86% | 61% | 36% | 7.9 | 23% | 4.4 | 69% | 26.3 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 9 |  NK Osijek | 36 | 35 | 22% | 1.0 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 2.1 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 10.2 | 49% | 5.2 | 71% | 28.3 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 10 |  Vukovar | 36 | 28 | 17% | 0.8 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 3.1 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.3 | 57% | 25.9 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 43% |