NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 Result & Analysis

NK Slaven Belupo are the favoured side to win this HNL fixture, with the model picking a home victory. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a compact contest, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Slaven Belupo have been solid at home, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Istra 1961, on the road, have struggled to find the net, scoring only 0.9 and conceding 1.4 on average.

The match carries a 49% probability of a home win, a 28% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of an away win. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 76.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 71.9% and Under 5.5 cards at 71.3%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.

The pre-match favourite, NK Slaven Belupo, failed to deliver, as the game finished 1-1 and ended in a draw. The model had tipped a home win with a 49% probability, but that call proved wrong. The match was a tight affair, with both sides scoring once. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 88.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.2%, Under 3.5 at 76.4%, Over 1.5 at 71.9%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.3%. Despite the upset, the statistical picture was largely confirmed.