NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Result & Analysis

The contest between NK Slaven Belupo and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb is as evenly poised as the odds suggest, with a home win probability of 36%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 35%. The model therefore picks a home victory as the most likely outcome. Expecting 2.7 goals in total, the average goal count is 2, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% chance. Slaven Belupo, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Lokomotiva, on the road, has posted 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include a 94.5% chance of over 19.5 fouls, 88.1% for over 21.5 fouls, 85.7% for over 2.5 cards, 78.1% for over 23.5 fouls, 75.6% for over 1.5 goals, 73.8% for under 11.5 corners, 72.3% for under 3.5 goals, and 70.4% for over 3.5 cards. This balanced picture reflects recent form: Slaven Belupo has suffered a 0-3 loss to NK Osijek, while Lokomotiva has rebounded from three straight defeats to a 0-2 win over HNK Hajduk Split.

The pre-match favourite, NK Slaven Belupo, did not come through, as the game finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s Home win call wrong. The match was a surprise, with both sides scoring twice. The model had predicted a 36% chance of a home win, 29% for a draw and 35% for an away win; the draw was the outcome. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, as did Over 2.5 cards, Over 3.5 cards, Over 19.5 fouls, Over 21.5 fouls and Over 23.5 fouls, all with high probabilities of 75.6%, 85.7%, 70.4%, 94.5%, 88.1% and 78.1% respectively. The only missed picks were Under 11.5 corners at 73.8% and Under 3.5 at 72.3%. The home team’s recent form shows a string of losses, while the away side had just broken a three-game losing streak.