NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Osijek Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance of Osijek triumphing, a 28% chance of Slaven Belupo winning, and a 27% chance of a draw. The expected total is 2.8 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.8% probability. Slaven Belupo, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, while Osijek, on the road, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 93.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 85.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.7% (miss), Over 23.5 fouls at 74.3% (miss), and Over 3.5 cards at 71.0%. The home win probability is 28%, the draw probability 27%, and the away win probability 45%.

The upset was clear: the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 45 percent, fell short as NK Slaven Belupo snatched a 3-2 home victory, extending their recent run of losses into a win. The model’s call was wrong, but the rest of its selections largely held. Over 19.5 fouls, over 2.5 cards, over 21.5 fouls, over 1.5 goals and over 3.5 cards all hit, each with probabilities of 93.1 percent, 86.0 percent, 85.6 percent, 78.3 percent and 71.0 percent respectively. The only miss was under 11.5 corners at 76.7 percent, while over 23.5 fouls at 74.3 percent also missed. The game delivered more than the model’s expected 2.8 goals, finishing 3-2.