This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.77
2.33
0.60
1.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
1.50
0.83
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (19)
2.26
0.74
2.89
0.44
1.70
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.6%
Under 2.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
10.9%
0-0 ✓
9.8%
1-2
9.0%
0-2
8.7%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
4.6%
NK Varazdin goals ↓
HNK Rijeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
11%
8.7%
4.1%
1.5%
1
7.6%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.5%
2
4.6%
6.5%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.6%
2.3%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Varazdin goals (down), columns = HNK Rijeka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
NK Varazdin is 0.44 points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
NK Varazdin is 0.58 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
NK Varazdin is 0.08 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
NK Varazdin is 3.0 percentage points better than HNK Rijeka in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Varazdin
For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 11.9 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Rijeka
For 5.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
25.9
26.7
25.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.6
10.4
9.0
3.8
4.9
2.9
24.1
26.0
22.7
vs Similar (34)
9.8
9.4
10.2
4.0
3.6
4.3
26.8
27.0
26.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
48%
50%
60%
67%
54%
84%
83%
85%
% under line
51%
52%
50%
40%
33%
46%
16%
17%
15%
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.3
8.5
4.8
4.3
5.3
26.2
25.4
27.1
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
17.0
11.0
6.0
8.0
4.0
30.5
39.0
22.0
vs Similar (17)
8.4
9.6
7.1
5.4
4.7
6.1
27.1
26.1
28.1
vs Weaker (31)
8.9
8.7
9.1
4.5
3.9
5.0
25.5
24.2
26.9
% over line
44%
48%
41%
78%
65%
92%
80%
71%
91%
% under line
56%
52%
59%
22%
35%
8%
20%
29%
9%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.3
NK Varazdin
9.8
NK Osijek
9.6
Sibenik
9.2
NK Slaven Belupo
9.1
Dinamo Zagreb
9.1
HNK Hajduk Split
9.0
HNK Rijeka
8.9
HNK Gorica
8.6
Istra 1961
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
4.9
HNK Rijeka
4.9
Dinamo Zagreb
4.7
NK Osijek
4.7
Sibenik
4.6
NK Slaven Belupo
4.6
HNK Hajduk Split
4.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
NK Varazdin
4.0
HNK Gorica
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
28.7
NK Osijek
26.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.3
HNK Rijeka
26.2
NK Varazdin
26.0
NK Slaven Belupo
25.7
Dinamo Zagreb
25.5
HNK Hajduk Split
24.6
HNK Gorica
24.5
Sibenik
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.9%
Under 9.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.5%
Under 3.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
88.9%
Under 21.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.64
0.57
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.45
0.67
0.67
0.45
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.93
0.20
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.42
1.11
0.11
0.70
0.70
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.36
0.86
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.89
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.40
0.40
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.83
0.50
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.32
1.78
0.33
1.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dimitar Mitrovski26%
Michele Šego18%
Leon Belcar16%
Matej Vuk14%
Luka Mamić11%
Aleksa Latković8%
Mate Antunović6%
Tomislav Duvnjak4%
Lamine Ba3%
Frane Maglica3%
Marko Dabro3%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jaime Sierra50%
Leon Belcar32%
Lamine Ba27%
Mario Marina25%
Tomislav Duvnjak25%
Karlo Lusavec25%
Atdhe Mazari20%
Dimitar Mitrovski19%
Enes Alić18%
Mario Mladenovski15%
Novak Tepšić15%
Jurica Poldrugač15%
Mario Čuić14%
Aleksa Latković12%
Marko Dabro12%
Ivan Nekić12%
Mate Antunović12%
Vane Jovanov10%
Antonio Boršić9%
Matej Vuk7%
Oliver Zelenika6%
Michele Šego6%
Luka Škaričić6%
Luka Mamić4%
Frane Maglica3%
Mateo Barać0%
Josip Silić0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka Mamić15%
Michele Šego12%
Frane Maglica9%
Jurica Poldrugač7%
Marko Dabro6%
Dimitar Mitrovski4%
Mateo Barać0%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Aleksa Latković0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Mate Antunović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michele Šego35%
Matej Vuk21%
Marko Dabro12%
Jurica Poldrugač11%
Dimitar Mitrovski11%
Mate Antunović6%
Aleksa Latković4%
Luka Mamić4%
Mateo Barać0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Lamine Ba0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Jaime Sierra0%
Vane Jovanov0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Enes Alić0%
Atdhe Mazari0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Leon Belcar0%
Niko Domjanić0%
HNK Rijeka
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franjo Ivanović50%
Veldin Hodža40%
Toni Fruk31%
Niko Janković24%
Marco Pašalić22%
Duje Čop20%
Komnen Andrić11%
Naïs Djouahra11%
Gabriel Rukavina10%
Stjepan Radeljić8%
Šimun Butić8%
Niko Galešić7%
Ivan Smolčić6%
Luka Menalo6%
Lindon Selahi3%
Mladen Devetak3%
Dejan Petrovič3%
Amer Gojak0%
Mile Škorić0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Bruno Goda0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Stipe Perica0%
Martin Zlomislić0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Jovan Manev0%
Ante Oreč0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ante Oreč43%
Jovan Manev29%
Ivan Smolčić24%
Mladen Devetak23%
Niko Galešić20%
Ante Majstorović19%
Amer Gojak19%
Niko Janković18%
Dejan Petrovič18%
Lindon Selahi17%
Bruno Goda17%
Toni Fruk16%
Stjepan Radeljić15%
Šimun Butić15%
Duje Čop13%
Luka Menalo12%
Komnen Andrić11%
Bruno Bogojević11%
Marco Pašalić11%
Gabriel Rukavina7%
Martin Zlomislić6%
Naïs Djouahra4%
Mile Škorić0%
Stipe Perica0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Franjo Ivanović0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Fruk31%
Franjo Ivanović25%
Duje Čop13%
Ivan Smolčić12%
Komnen Andrić11%
Marco Pašalić11%
Naïs Djouahra11%
Niko Janković9%
Dejan Petrovič9%
Amer Gojak7%
Silvio Ilinković7%
Mladen Devetak6%
Stjepan Radeljić4%
Bruno Bogojević4%
Lindon Selahi3%
Gabriel Rukavina3%
Ante Majstorović3%
Mile Škorić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Luka Menalo0%
Stipe Perica0%
Martin Zlomislić0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Jovan Manev0%
Niko Galešić0%
Ante Oreč0%
Šimun Butić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franjo Ivanović25%
Niko Janković21%
Toni Fruk19%
Marco Pašalić17%
Naïs Djouahra14%
Gabriel Rukavina3%
Dejan Petrovič3%
Amer Gojak0%
Komnen Andrić0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Mile Škorić0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Bruno Goda0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Luka Menalo0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Duje Čop0%
Stipe Perica0%
Martin Zlomislić0%
Lindon Selahi0%
Dominik Dogan0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Jovan Manev0%
Niko Galešić0%
Ante Oreč0%
Šimun Butić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
NK Varazdin's squad is €23m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€11m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
NK Varazdin's attack is €16m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€6m vs €21m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
NK Varazdin's midfield is €4m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€1m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
NK Varazdin's defence is €3m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€5m vs €8m).
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
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