NK Varazdin, currently on a 4-game winning run, hosts HNK Rijeka, who have been on a 3-game winning streak. However, Rijeka's away form is concerning, conceding an average of a goal per game against weaker opponents. Varazdin, on the other hand, has been defensively solid at home, conceding just one goal on average per game against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a narrow away win for HNK Rijeka, with a 38% chance of victory. The expected total goals is 2.2, suggesting a low-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability.
Varazdin's home scoring average is 1.17 goals per game, while Rijeka's away scoring average is 1 goal per game. Varazdin concedes 1 goal on average at home, while Rijeka concedes 1 goal on average away against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 38% chance of occurring. The home win percentage is 31%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 38%. The model's selection for over 21.5 fouls has a 84.2% probability, while the selection for under 3.5 goals has an 81.4% probability.
Results analysis
NK Varazdin's 2-0 victory over HNK Rijeka marks the end of the visitors' 5-game winning streak, a run that had seen them dominate at home. The win extends their run of home success, which now stands at 6 consecutive victories. In a surprising turn of events, the pre-match favourite, HNK Rijeka, failed to come through, with the model's selection, Away win, being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a Home win. The model's selection, Away win, had a pre-match probability of 35%. The model also suggested Over 21.5 fouls, which hit, and Under 3.5, which also hit, both with high probabilities of 83.3% and 83% respectively.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
NK Varazdin winā Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.05
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.17
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Drawā Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.07
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
Dafabet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
Bet365
3.10
HNK Rijeka winā Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.28
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.44
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.32
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
NK Varazdin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.50
1.29
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.20
1.00
2.40
vs Similar (20)
1.65
1.05
1.78
1.33
1.55
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.80
1.62
0.75
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.91
1.17
0.83
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.56
0.78
1.90
0.70
1.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.32-5.6%
Under 1.5
35.4%
@ 3.11+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.33
888Sport
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.15
10Bet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.3%
@ 2.05-9.4%
Under 2.5
63.7%
@ 1.72+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Under
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
@ 3.59-8.8%
Under 3.5
83.0%
@ 1.25+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.90
Pinnacle
3.81
888Sport
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.6%
@ 1.78-7.2%
No
55.4%
@ 1.92+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Betfair
1.83
William Hil
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
No
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
10Bet
1.93
888Sport
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 5.57+7.0%
0-0
13.0%@ 7.82+7.5%
0-1
11.5%@ 6.74+5.1%
1-0
10.9%@ 8.18+5.6%
1-2
7.4%@ 8.18+2.1%
0-2
7.1%@ 9.77+2.6%
2-1
7.0%@ 9.80+2.6%
2-0 ā
6.4%@ 14.06+3.3%
NK Varazdin goals ↓
HNK Rijeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
6.4%
7.0%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.2%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Varazdin goals (down), columns = HNK Rijeka goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
NK Varazdin is 0.03 points better than HNK Rijeka in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.47).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
NK Varazdin is 0.06 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.36).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
NK Varazdin is 0.28 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
NK Varazdin is 8.2 percentage points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
NK Varazdin or Drawā Hit
64.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
32%
35%
covers NK Varazdin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin or HNK Rijekaā Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
32%
35%
covers NK Varazdin + HNK Rijeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or HNK Rijekaā Miss
67.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
32%
35%
covers Draw + HNK Rijeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.79
0.64
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.50
1.00
0.89
1.09
0.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.44
0.38
0.36
0.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.09
0.45
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
0.61
0.28
0.70
0.30
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.71
0.64
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.55
0.78
0.44
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.19
0.38
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.45
1.17
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.20
0.40
0.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 3.5
83.0%
1.25
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+8.8%
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.4%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
-
-
+6.7%
ā Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.2%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
-
-
+7.1%
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksa LatkoviÄ40%
Mario Mladenovski40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Luka MamiÄ40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip SiliÄ0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor SikoŔek0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Å kariÄiÄ0%
Novak TepÅ”iÄ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luka Å kariÄiÄ25%
Mario Marina20%
Frane Maglica20%
Aleksa LatkoviÄ20%
Gregor SikoŔek20%
Novak TepÅ”iÄ20%
Matej Vuk0%
Ivan Mamut0%
Josip SiliÄ0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Luka MamiÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matej Vuk67%
Ivan Mamut40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Aleksa LatkoviÄ20%
Gregor SikoŔek20%
Iuri Tavares20%
Mario Marina0%
Josip SiliÄ0%
Frane Maglica0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Å kariÄiÄ0%
Novak TepÅ”iÄ0%
Luka MamiÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksa LatkoviÄ40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Ivan Canjuga20%
Luka MamiÄ20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip SiliÄ0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor SikoŔek0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Å kariÄiÄ0%
Novak TepÅ”iÄ0%
HNK Rijeka
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Adu-Adjei33%
Justas Lasickas20%
Jakov PuljiÄ17%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Ante MajstoroviÄ0%
Niko JankoviÄ0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ0%
Ante OreÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel HusiÄ0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakov PuljiÄ50%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ33%
Anel HusiÄ33%
Alfonso Barco25%
Justas Lasickas20%
Ante MajstoroviÄ17%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Niko JankoviÄ0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ante OreÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Daniel Adu-Adjei0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Dantas33%
Ante OreÄ20%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Jakov PuljiÄ0%
Ante MajstoroviÄ0%
Niko JankoviÄ0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel HusiÄ0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Daniel Adu-Adjei0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Niko JankoviÄ50%
Toni Fruk33%
Jakov PuljiÄ17%
Daniel Adu-Adjei17%
Amer Gojak0%
Ante MajstoroviÄ0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ0%
Ante OreÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel HusiÄ0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
NK Varazdin's squad is €23m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€11m vs €34m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
NK Varazdin's attack is €16m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€6m vs €21m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
NK Varazdin's midfield is €4m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€1m vs €5m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
NK Varazdin's defence is €3m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€5m vs €8m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
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NK Osijek
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica