PythiaFootballBETA
In a finely balanced encounter, NK Varazdin's recent surge in form, having won three of their last five matches, including a 2-1 victory over HNK Hajduk Split, sets the stage for this matchup against Istra 1961. The home side's home scoring and conceding average, 1.71 goals each, is comparable to the opponent's away form, with Istra 1961 averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded in similar strength matches.
NK Varazdin is the favourite to win, with a 40% chance of victory, closely followed by a 31% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Istra 1961 emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely outcome being a 2-goal match. The model's selection is a home win, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, occurring with a 14.4% probability.
The model also suggests the selection 'Under 3.5' with a 79.6% chance of success, 'Over 21.5 fouls' at 74.2%, and 'Over 3.5 cards' at 73.3%. The percentages for the three possible outcomes are: home win 40%, draw 31%, and away win 29%.
The win extends NK Varazdin's run, with this victory marking their third in a row. The final score was a 2-0 win for the home team, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was spot on, as the favourites were indeed NK Varazdin. The model's selection of an under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.6%, while the over 21.5 fouls and over 3.5 cards selections also came in, with probabilities of 74.2% and 73.3% respectively.
NK Varazdin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.00 | 1.70 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.29 | 1.07 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Istra 1961| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.92 | 1.69 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.29 | 1.06 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
| Istra 1961 goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
NK VarazdinIstra 1961NK Varazdin| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 24.9 | 25.0 | 24.7 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.7 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 23.6 |
| vs Similar (24) | 8.7 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 25.9 | 25.4 | 26.2 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 8.7 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 24.2 | 26.0 | 22.4 |
| % over line | 43% | 30% | 54% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 77% | 74% | 79% |
| % under line | 57% | 70% | 46% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 23% | 26% | 21% |
Istra 1961| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.0 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 23.9 | 24.5 | 23.2 |
| vs Similar (30) | 8.6 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 22.5 | 22.2 | 22.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 41% | 42% | 39% | 64% | 58% | 71% | 61% | 50% | 74% |
| % under line | 59% | 58% | 61% | 36% | 42% | 29% | 39% | 50% | 26% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 75.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/12/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 03/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/03/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 07/12/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/09/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/24 | A | 2-0 |
NK Varazdin| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
Istra 1961| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 86 | 75% | 2.4 | 93 | 28 | +65 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 42% | 9.6 | 44% | 4.4 | 50% | 24.2 | 61% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 2 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 68 | 56% | 1.9 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 2.7 | 81% | 44% | 28% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 57% | 27.1 | 89% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.6 | 83% | 47% | 28% | 9.6 | 46% | 5.0 | 74% | 25.4 | 83% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 |  HNK Rijeka | 36 | 53 | 39% | 1.5 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 28% | 9.8 | 63% | 4.7 | 68% | 26.1 | 86% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 5 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 44 | 28% | 1.2 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 2.6 | 89% | 42% | 19% | 8.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 62% | 26.5 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 43 | 33% | 1.2 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 10.0 | 49% | 4.6 | 72% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 |  HNK Gorica | 36 | 41 | 31% | 1.1 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 2.4 | 72% | 44% | 25% | 8.8 | 43% | 4.4 | 51% | 25.0 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 8 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 3.0 | 86% | 61% | 36% | 7.9 | 23% | 4.4 | 69% | 26.3 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 9 |  NK Osijek | 36 | 35 | 22% | 1.0 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 2.1 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 10.2 | 49% | 5.2 | 71% | 28.3 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 10 |  Vukovar | 36 | 28 | 17% | 0.8 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 3.1 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.3 | 57% | 25.9 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 43% |