This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.58
1.50
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.57
0.75
1.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
12.7%
0-0
12.1%
0-2
9.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
6.1%
2-0 ✓
4.7%
NK Varazdin goals ↓
Sibenik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.1%
3.9%
1.3%
1
8.7%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.2%
2
4.7%
6.1%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
3
1.4%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Varazdin goals (down), columns = Sibenik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.97
NK Osijek
1.39
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.28
Istra 1961
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.19
HNK Gorica
0.89
Sibenik
0.75
NK Varazdin is 0.53 points better than Sibenik in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.81
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Varazdin
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.00
Istra 1961
1.00
NK Slaven Belupo
0.75
Sibenik
0.67
NK Varazdin is 0.47 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
Istra 1961
1.06
HNK Hajduk Split
1.14
NK Osijek
1.14
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.39
NK Varazdin
1.42
Sibenik
1.56
NK Varazdin is 0.14 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
63%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
52%
Istra 1961
52%
NK Varazdin
51%
HNK Rijeka
50%
NK Osijek
50%
HNK Gorica
44%
Sibenik
44%
NK Slaven Belupo
42%
NK Varazdin is 7.6 percentage points better than Sibenik in terms of average possession (51% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Varazdin
For 3.2 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 15.9 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
For 3.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 11.1 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
8.3
9.4
7.1
5.1
4.9
5.4
26.3
25.2
27.5
vs Stronger (8)
8.5
9.6
6.7
4.5
3.4
6.3
24.2
25.6
22.0
vs Similar (15)
8.2
9.3
7.2
5.5
6.0
5.0
27.4
25.0
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
30%
42%
18%
78%
67%
91%
78%
75%
82%
% under line
70%
58%
82%
22%
33%
9%
22%
25%
18%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
8.8
6.4
11.5
5.0
4.7
5.3
24.9
26.5
23.1
vs Stronger (7)
9.9
7.8
12.7
4.6
4.5
4.7
23.3
26.2
19.3
vs Similar (16)
8.4
5.8
11.0
5.1
4.8
5.5
25.6
26.6
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
17%
82%
61%
58%
64%
74%
92%
55%
% under line
52%
83%
18%
39%
42%
36%
26%
8%
45%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
HNK Gorica
8.9
Sibenik
8.8
HNK Hajduk Split
8.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
8.7
Dinamo Zagreb
8.4
HNK Rijeka
8.4
NK Varazdin
8.3
Istra 1961
7.8
NK Slaven Belupo
7.8
NK Osijek
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
HNK Gorica
6.1
HNK Rijeka
6.0
Sibenik
5.2
NK Varazdin
5.1
HNK Hajduk Split
5.1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.9
Istra 1961
4.8
NK Slaven Belupo
4.8
NK Osijek
4.6
Dinamo Zagreb
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Rijeka
26.7
NK Varazdin
26.3
HNK Hajduk Split
25.8
Istra 1961
25.7
NK Osijek
25.3
Sibenik
24.9
NK Slaven Belupo
24.4
HNK Gorica
24.3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
24.0
Dinamo Zagreb
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.8%
Under 9.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.3%
Under 3.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.8%
Under 21.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.39
0.35
0.58
0.42
0.18
0.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.27
1.00
0.29
0.12
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.52
0.25
0.58
0.36
0.45
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.44
0.12
0.62
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
61% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.09
0.50
1.17
1.09
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.88
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
0.43
0.57
1.12
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.39
0.65
0.33
0.92
0.45
0.36
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.56
0.38
0.88
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vito Težak33%
Fran Brodić32%
Tonio Teklić24%
Niko Domjanić18%
Igor Postonjski12%
Domagoj Drožđek11%
Dimitar Mitrovski11%
Ivan Posavec10%
Karlo Perić10%
Michele Šego8%
Matija Kolarić8%
Agon Elezi6%
David Puclin5%
Marin Pilj4%
Luka Jelenić3%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
Marko Stolnik0%
Lamine Ba0%
Jozo Stanić0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Andris Herrera0%
Mato Stanić0%
Demir Peco0%
Itsuki Urata0%
Rafa Pereira0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Filip Brekalo0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Leon Belcar0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Lovro Banovec0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jorgo Pëllumbi26%
Andris Herrera25%
Marin Pilj22%
Domagoj Drožđek22%
Luka Jelenić20%
Luka Škaričić20%
Agon Elezi19%
Itsuki Urata19%
Filip Brekalo17%
Lamine Ba16%
David Puclin14%
Igor Postonjski12%
Demir Peco12%
Tonio Teklić12%
Marko Stolnik12%
Leon Belcar12%
Matija Kolarić12%
Mato Stanić11%
Jozo Stanić10%
Fran Brodić6%
Lovro Banovec5%
Michele Šego4%
Oliver Zelenika3%
Ivan Posavec0%
Rafa Pereira0%
Karlo Perić0%
Dimitar Mitrovski0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Vito Težak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Posavec20%
Michele Šego15%
Lovro Banovec15%
Jozo Stanić13%
Igor Postonjski12%
Domagoj Drožđek11%
Itsuki Urata7%
Fran Brodić6%
Leon Belcar6%
Lamine Ba5%
Andris Herrera5%
Matija Kolarić4%
Marin Pilj4%
Agon Elezi3%
Tonio Teklić3%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
David Puclin0%
Marko Stolnik0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Mato Stanić0%
Demir Peco0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Rafa Pereira0%
Karlo Perić0%
Dimitar Mitrovski0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Filip Brekalo0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Vito Težak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Brodić26%
Tonio Teklić24%
Igor Postonjski12%
Demir Peco12%
Ivan Posavec10%
Michele Šego8%
Agon Elezi6%
Marin Pilj4%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
Domagoj Drožđek0%
David Puclin0%
Matija Kolarić0%
Marko Stolnik0%
Lamine Ba0%
Jozo Stanić0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Andris Herrera0%
Mato Stanić0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Itsuki Urata0%
Rafa Pereira0%
Karlo Perić0%
Dimitar Mitrovski0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Filip Brekalo0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Ivan Šaranić0%
Leon Belcar0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Lovro Banovec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Vito Težak0%
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Delić19%
Ivan Dolček17%
Duje Čop14%
Burgui12%
Patrick Salomon7%
Bernardo Matić7%
Amer Hiroš6%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Haruki Arai6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Stefan Perić3%
Marcos Mina3%
Mislav Matić3%
Marko Đira0%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Josip Knežević0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Marko Soldo0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Doni Grdić33%
Nikola Đorić29%
Bernardo Matić27%
Amer Hiroš25%
Matija Rom25%
Marko Đira20%
Marcos Mina20%
Ivan Delić19%
Mislav Matić18%
Ivan Dolček17%
Stefan Perić17%
Mario Ćurić17%
Josip Knežević17%
Ivica Vidović17%
Dejan Radonjić15%
Duje Čop14%
Iker Pozo14%
Dino Skorup13%
Marko Soldo13%
Juan Mesa12%
Haruki Arai9%
Patrick Salomon7%
Josip Kvesić7%
Niko Rak7%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Lovre Rogić6%
Leon Kreković6%
Dario Čanađija6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Burgui0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Delić19%
Sacha Marasović12%
Duje Čop10%
Ivan Dolček7%
Marko Soldo7%
Amer Hiroš6%
Mislav Matić6%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Marcos Mina3%
Haruki Arai3%
Marko Đira0%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Stefan Perić0%
Patrick Salomon0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Josip Knežević0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Burgui0%
Bernardo Matić0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Duje Čop19%
Ivan Delić19%
Marcel Čanadi10%
Josip Knežević8%
Ivan Dolček7%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Haruki Arai3%
Marko Đira0%
Stefan Perić0%
Patrick Salomon0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Burgui0%
Marcos Mina0%
Mislav Matić0%
Bernardo Matić0%
Amer Hiroš0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Marko Soldo0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →