PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Nõmme United vs Laagri Result & Analysis

Date: 04/09/2022
Time: 09:30
Final 4-1
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Vs
38%
25%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United win✓ Hit
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L13L40W42W30W01L41W03L11D40WH·FCI18/06A·ELV04/07H·TUL18/07A·FCI30/07H·PÄR06/08A·VII11/08H·PAI15/08A·FLO22/08H·VII27/08A·K-J01/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.881.731.851.461.922.00
vs Stronger (3)0.331.330.501.500.001.00
vs Similar (20)2.152.002.111.672.182.27
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D00D41W34L34L10W30W21W20W10WA·VII18/06A·PÄR30/06H·PAI04/07H·FLO18/07A·ELV01/08A·VII06/08H·K-J13/08A·PÄR22/08H·TUL29/08H·FCI01/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.621.273.141.002.001.58
vs Stronger (6)2.171.832.332.332.001.33
vs Similar (20)2.751.103.360.642.001.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.2%
Under 2.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
4.8%
2-0
4.8%
0-1
4.7%
1-3
4.7%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Laagri goals →
01234
04.3%4.7%4.8%2.7%1.2%
14.7%11%8.2%4.7%2.0%
24.8%8.2%7.0%4.0%1.7%
32.7%4.6%4.0%2.3%1.0%
41.2%2.0%1.7%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.11
FCI Levadia II
1.89
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.75
Flora II
1.72
Nõmme United
1.67
Paide II
1.44
K-Järve JK Järve
0.82
Tulevik
0.64
Pärnu
0.56
Tallinna Kalev II
0.50
Nõmme United is 0.44 points worse than Laagri in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
2.69
Flora II
2.44
FCI Levadia II
2.36
Nõmme United
2.19
Elva
2.11
Viimsi
2.11
Paide II
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
K-Järve JK Järve
0.87
Pärnu
0.83
Tulevik
0.78
Nõmme United is 0.50 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (2.19 vs 2.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
1.11
FCI Levadia II
1.25
Laagri
1.28
Elva
1.44
Flora II
1.44
Nõmme United
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Pärnu
2.14
Paide II
2.44
Tulevik
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
2.84
Nõmme United is 0.28 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W20W22D20W00D21W01L00D10WH·FCI18/06A·ELV04/07H·TUL18/07A·FCI30/07H·PÄR06/08A·VII11/08H·PAI15/08A·FLO22/08H·VII27/08A·K-J01/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.620.920.460.380.77
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.500.000.00
vs Similar (20)0.700.751.000.560.450.91
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D21W12L12L10W30W01L10W10WA·VII18/06A·PÄR30/06H·PAI04/07H·FLO18/07A·ELV01/08A·VII06/08H·K-J13/08A·PÄR22/08H·TUL29/08H·FCI01/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.310.651.570.641.000.67
vs Stronger (6)0.830.830.671.001.000.67
vs Similar (20)1.450.601.820.551.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %54% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L03L20W20W10W01L20W02L11D30WH·FCI18/06A·ELV04/07H·TUL18/07A·FCI30/07H·PÄR06/08A·VII11/08H·PAI15/08A·FLO22/08H·VII27/08A·K-J01/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.120.921.001.541.23
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)1.451.251.111.111.731.36
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %31% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D00D20W22D22D00D00D20W10W00DA·VII18/06A·PÄR30/06H·PAI04/07H·FLO18/07A·ELV01/08A·VII06/08H·K-J13/08A·PÄR22/08H·TUL29/08H·FCI01/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.310.621.570.361.000.92
vs Stronger (6)1.331.001.671.331.000.67
vs Similar (20)1.300.501.550.091.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
NU (7)
€0m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
NU wins
0
Draws
1
LAA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United vs Laagri · H/A from NU
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/22ALaagri Vs NU4-2
10/04/22HNU Vs Laagri3-2

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs NU0-4
27/08/22HNU Vs Viimsi1-1
22/08/22AFlora II Vs NU3-0
15/08/22HNU Vs Paide II4-1
11/08/22AViimsi Vs NU1-0
06/08/22HNU Vs Pärnu3-0
30/07/22AFCI Levadia II Vs NU2-4
18/07/22HNU Vs Tulevik4-0
04/07/22AElva Vs NU3-1
18/06/22HNU Vs FCI Levadia II0-6

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/22HLAA Vs FCI Levadia II1-0
29/08/22HLAA Vs Tulevik2-0
22/08/22APärnu Vs LAA1-2
13/08/22HLAA Vs K-Järve JK Järve3-0
06/08/22AViimsi Vs LAA0-1
01/08/22AElva Vs LAA4-3
18/07/22HLAA Vs Flora II3-4
04/07/22HLAA Vs Paide II4-1
30/06/22APärnu Vs LAA0-0
18/06/22AViimsi Vs LAA2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.38
HomeLWWWD1.69
AwayLWLLW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%31%
AVG goals3.623.313.92
Over 1.5 %92%100%85%
Over 2.5 %65%54%77%
Over 3.5 %54%46%62%
Scored1.881.851.92
Conceded1.731.462.00
BTTS62%54%69%
Clean Sheet23%31%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.00
HomeWLWWW2.43
AwayDDLWW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%79%42%
AVG goals3.884.143.58
Over 1.5 %81%79%83%
Over 2.5 %65%64%67%
Over 3.5 %54%57%50%
Scored2.623.142.00
Conceded1.271.001.58
BTTS58%50%67%
Clean Sheet35%43%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3676
67%
2.1
9746+51
4.0
81%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.71.3
-
2FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3668
58%
1.9
8545+40
3.6
94%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.2
-
3ElvaElva3666
56%
1.8
7652+24
3.6
81%
53%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4ViimsiViimsi3663
56%
1.8
7640+36
3.2
75%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II3662
53%
1.7
8852+36
3.9
89%
78%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
6Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3660
50%
1.7
7956+23
3.8
94%
64%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.21.6
-
7Paide IIPaide II3652
47%
1.4
7588-13
4.5
100%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.4
-
8K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3831
24%
0.8
33108-75
3.7
84%
76%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.8
-
9TulevikTulevik3623
17%
0.6
28102-74
3.6
86%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
10PärnuPärnu3620
11%
0.6
3077-47
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches