Northampton’s return to home ground after a 1-1 draw with Gillingham gives the model a slight edge, reflected in the 35% chance of a home win versus 32% for Crawley and 33% for a draw. The model favours a 1-1 result, the most likely scoreline with a 14.8% probability, while the expected total goals sits at 2.1, with a 28% chance of exactly two goals. Northampton averages 0.73 goals scored and 1.64 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Crawley averages 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include a 99.9% chance of Under 7.5, 99.4% for Under 6.5 with a 4% edge, 98.5% for Away under 2.5 HT goals, 98.2% for Home under 2.5 HT goals with a 7% edge, 98.0% for Away under 3.5 goals with a 2% edge, 98.0% for Under 5.5 with a 7% edge, 97.9% for Away under 2.5 2H goals with a 3% edge, and 97.6% for Home under 3.5 goals with a 10% edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Northampton, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1 for a draw. The model had picked a home win with a 37% probability, but that call was wrong. The game saw every model selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Under 5.5 at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 97.4%. Both sides had been coming off draws, with Northampton’s last five results a mix of defeats and draws and Crawley’s ending with a win and two losses. The match confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals and half-time scoring, but not on the final outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Northampton win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 53.4% · @ 1.74
Edge
-16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.78
SBO
1.77
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Draw✓ Hit
32.7%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.70
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.97
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Crawley Town win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.33
Edge
+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Northampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.87
0.77
1.62
0.53
2.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.86
1.00
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
1.87
0.73
1.64
0.50
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.23
0.73
1.27
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
1.30
0.73
1.27
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.1%
@ 1.24-11.7%
Under 1.5
36.9%
@ 3.67+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.7%
@ 1.82-17.0%
Under 2.5
65.3%
@ 1.95+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.87
SBO
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
SBO
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.9%
@ 2.99-15.2%
Under 3.5
84.1%
@ 1.35+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.2%
@ 1.74-10.0%
No
56.8%
@ 1.98+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
No
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.8%@ 6.67+8.1%
0-0
13.7%@ 10.36+9.4%
1-0
12.4%@ 6.82+5.8%
0-1
10.8%@ 11.63+7.0%
2-0
7.6%@ 7.96+2.0%
2-1
7.4%@ 7.57+1.6%
1-2
6.6%@ 13.00+3.2%
0-2
6.0%@ 22.20+4.0%
Northampton goals ↓
Crawley Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2
7.6%
7.4%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.8%
2.7%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Northampton goals (down), columns = Crawley Town goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Northampton is 0.53 points better than Crawley Town in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Northampton is 0.35 goals better than Crawley Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Northampton is 0.22 goals better than Crawley Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Northampton
For 4.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crawley Town
For 3.1 · Against 6.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.3 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.5
10.8
3.4
3.8
3.0
22.0
21.9
22.1
vs Stronger (12)
11.4
11.7
11.2
4.0
4.5
3.5
22.4
23.8
21.0
vs Similar (38)
9.7
8.7
10.7
3.2
3.6
2.9
21.9
21.3
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
58%
68%
44%
54%
35%
55%
58%
52%
% under line
37%
42%
32%
56%
46%
65%
45%
42%
48%
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
12.0
11.8
4.5
4.3
4.6
25.3
25.3
25.4
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
5.0
-
5.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (47)
12.0
12.0
12.0
4.3
4.3
4.3
25.5
25.3
25.7
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
-
8.5
7.5
-
7.5
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
76%
75%
76%
64%
62%
65%
76%
83%
68%
% under line
24%
25%
24%
36%
38%
35%
24%
17%
32%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.21
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Northampton or Draw✓ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied 78.5% · @ 1.19
Edge
-9.0%
37%
33%
31%
covers Northampton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Northampton or Crawley Town✗ Miss
67.3%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.23
Edge
-8.0%
37%
33%
31%
covers Northampton + Crawley Town
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw or Crawley Town✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied 46.2% · @ 2.02
Edge
+17.0%
37%
33%
31%
covers Draw + Crawley Town
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.10
SBO
2.06
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Northampton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.9%
@ 1.15-14.2%
Under
33.1%
@ 4.92+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.20
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
Northampton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.3%
@ 1.77-22.2%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.96+22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Northampton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 3.44-16.9%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.27+16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Northampton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 7.33-10.2%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.07+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Crawley Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.6%
@ 1.48-0.2%
Under
37.4%
@ 2.50+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Crawley Town over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.8%
@ 3.35-1.9%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.29+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.46
1xBet
3.32
Marathonbet
3.32
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Crawley Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 8.87-2.8%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.04+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Crawley Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 22.17-2.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Northampton, so a minus line means Northampton give that many goals of a start and Crawley Town receive them. At -1, Northampton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Northampton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Northampton)Actual: Crawley Town
Northampton -2
4.8%
@ 5.78-10.6%
Draw -2
10.7%
@ 4.85-7.7%
Crawley Town +2
84.5%
@ 1.35+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.55
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Northampton)Actual: Crawley Town
Northampton -1
15.5%
@ 2.90-15.0%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 3.52-3.9%
Crawley Town +1
63.2%
@ 2.01+19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Away
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Northampton)Actual: Northampton
Northampton +1
69.5%
@ 1.19-5.9%
Draw +1
18.8%
@ 5.90+3.6%
Crawley Town -1
11.8%
@ 9.42+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
Handicap +2 (Northampton)Actual: Northampton
Northampton +2
88.2%
@ 1.04-1.0%
Draw +2
8.5%
@ 13.00+1.3%
Crawley Town -2
3.3%
@ 25.67-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
Betfair
26.00
Superbet
22.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.46
0.77
0.35
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.87
0.36
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.50
0.20
0.53
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.19
0.56
0.20
0.53
0.17
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
64.4%
@ 1.34-4.9%
Under 0.5
35.6%
@ 3.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
10Bet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.7%
@ 2.58-8.2%
Under 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.45+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.3%
@ 6.36-6.3%
Under 2.5
91.7%
@ 1.09+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Superbet
6.10
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.0%
@ 1.71-4.3%
Under
50.0%
@ 2.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 4.48-9.3%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.17+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 11.33-6.8%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.4%
@ 2.52-1.3%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.46+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Betano
2.57
Superbet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Under
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 8.85-4.4%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
Superbet
8.90
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 38.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.93
0.31
0.85
0.18
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (23)
0.26
1.00
0.36
0.91
0.17
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.74
0.53
0.73
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.8%
@ 1.21-1.7%
Under 0.5
25.2%
@ 3.94+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betano
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.02-12.9%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.73+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 4.20-5.5%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.19+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.9%
@ 1.51-12.6%
Under
51.1%
@ 2.42+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 3.37-9.9%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.28+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 8.55-7.2%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.04+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.2%
@ 2.10+1.0%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.66-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 6.68-3.8%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.08+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 20.33-2.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+16.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.5%
1.35
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
+18.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.1%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+15.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.17
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.2%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.3%
1.45
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
+8.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Northampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Logan Briggs33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Saunders33%
Logan Briggs33%
L. Evans25%
J. Maxwell25%
Tyrese Fornah25%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
Z. Jeacock0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hoskins25%
E. Moore0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Crawley Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Orsi25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
Gianmarco Di Biase25%
L. Watson20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jude Arthurs60%
L. Watson40%
Klaudio Krasniqi40%
Charlie Barker40%
J. Russell40%
Priestley Farquharson25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Osman Kamara0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
L. Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Watson20%
Jude Arthurs20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Northampton and Crawley Town have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Northampton and Crawley Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Northampton and Crawley Town have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Northampton's defence is €1m more valuable than Crawley Town's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale