This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.27
1.00
1.31
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
1.32
1.00
1.33
0.70
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 2.04-3.6%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.73+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.1%
No
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
15.6%
2-0
14.8%
1-1
10.8%
0-0
10.3%
3-0
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.5%
Northampton goals ↓
Crewe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
4.5%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
1
16%
11%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
8.7%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
8.8%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
4
3.9%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Northampton goals (down), columns = Crewe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leyton Orient
1.98
Stevenage
1.85
Northampton
1.80
Stockport
1.72
Bradford
1.65
Carlisle
1.65
Mansfield
1.63
Salford
1.63
Barrow
1.35
Grimsby
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Sutton
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Tranmere
1.26
Newport County
1.24
Doncaster
1.20
Walsall
1.20
Gillingham
1.20
Harrogate
1.13
Colchester
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.00
Hartlepool
0.93
Rochdale
0.83
Northampton is 0.54 points better than Crewe in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mansfield
1.57
Salford
1.57
Carlisle
1.43
Stockport
1.41
Northampton
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Bradford
1.33
Stevenage
1.33
Harrogate
1.28
Newport County
1.15
Hartlepool
1.13
Grimsby
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.04
Crewe
1.04
Barrow
1.02
Sutton
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Rochdale
1.00
Tranmere
0.98
Colchester
0.96
Gillingham
0.78
Northampton is 0.30 goals better than Crewe in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leyton Orient
0.74
Stockport
0.80
Stevenage
0.85
Northampton
0.91
Bradford
0.93
Carlisle
0.93
Tranmere
1.04
Walsall
1.07
Gillingham
1.07
Colchester
1.11
Barrow
1.15
Salford
1.17
Swindon
1.20
Mansfield
1.20
Grimsby
1.22
Newport County
1.22
Sutton
1.26
AFC Wimbledon
1.30
Crewe
1.30
Doncaster
1.41
Harrogate
1.48
Rochdale
1.52
Crawley Town
1.54
Hartlepool
1.70
Northampton is 0.39 goals better than Crewe in terms of goals conceded per game (0.91 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
58%
Leyton Orient
58%
Salford
57%
Bradford
54%
Stockport
54%
Mansfield
53%
Hartlepool
51%
Crawley Town
51%
Northampton
51%
Tranmere
51%
Grimsby
50%
Doncaster
50%
Rochdale
49%
Harrogate
48%
Crewe
48%
Stevenage
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Newport County
46%
Carlisle
46%
Sutton
46%
Walsall
46%
Barrow
46%
Colchester
46%
Gillingham
45%
Northampton is 2.8 percentage points better than Crewe in terms of average possession (51% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Northampton
For 4.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
For 3.5 · Against 7.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.2
4.1
4.6
3.5
23.9
24.7
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.5
5.0
14.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
27.5
39.0
16.0
vs Similar (39)
9.3
9.5
9.1
4.2
4.7
3.8
24.3
25.2
23.4
vs Weaker (9)
8.6
8.6
8.5
3.4
4.2
2.5
21.2
20.0
22.8
% over line
46%
52%
40%
62%
72%
52%
64%
68%
60%
% under line
54%
48%
60%
38%
28%
48%
36%
32%
40%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.5
10.6
3.0
2.7
3.3
23.1
23.0
23.3
vs Stronger (10)
10.8
11.0
10.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
22.6
23.8
20.8
vs Similar (32)
10.8
10.5
11.1
3.0
2.6
3.4
23.7
23.2
24.2
vs Weaker (8)
9.4
10.0
8.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
21.6
21.0
22.2
% over line
64%
63%
65%
36%
26%
48%
60%
56%
65%
% under line
36%
37%
35%
64%
74%
52%
40%
44%
35%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crewe
10.6
Sutton
10.3
Swindon
10.1
Harrogate
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Crawley Town
9.8
Bradford
9.7
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Barrow
9.6
Colchester
9.6
Salford
9.6
Carlisle
9.4
Rochdale
9.3
Stockport
9.2
Northampton
9.2
Grimsby
9.1
Walsall
9.1
Doncaster
9.1
Hartlepool
9.1
Stevenage
9.1
Newport County
8.9
Leyton Orient
8.8
Gillingham
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.5
Northampton
4.1
Barrow
4.0
Swindon
3.9
Colchester
3.8
Leyton Orient
3.8
Mansfield
3.7
Sutton
3.5
Carlisle
3.4
Bradford
3.4
Walsall
3.3
Gillingham
3.3
Salford
3.3
Rochdale
3.3
Newport County
3.3
Stevenage
3.3
Grimsby
3.2
Stockport
3.2
Tranmere
3.1
Crewe
3.0
Crawley Town
2.9
Harrogate
2.9
Doncaster
2.9
Hartlepool
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AFC Wimbledon
26.1
Barrow
23.9
Northampton
23.9
Sutton
23.6
Stevenage
23.2
Crewe
23.1
Salford
23.1
Stockport
23.1
Bradford
23.0
Colchester
22.9
Gillingham
22.7
Crawley Town
22.7
Mansfield
22.6
Grimsby
22.6
Walsall
22.3
Newport County
22.3
Rochdale
22.2
Leyton Orient
22.0
Swindon
22.0
Tranmere
21.4
Doncaster
21.3
Hartlepool
20.6
Harrogate
20.0
Carlisle
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.1%
Under 9.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
32.0%
Under 21.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.37
0.40
0.33
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.35
0.27
0.36
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.62
0.44
0.14
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.59
0.58
0.50
0.10
0.70
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.80
0.40
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.35
0.55
0.27
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.38
0.88
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.73
0.42
0.83
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Northampton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Logan Briggs33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Saunders33%
Logan Briggs33%
L. Evans25%
J. Maxwell25%
Tyrese Fornah25%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
Z. Jeacock0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hoskins25%
E. Moore0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Crewe · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Northampton's squad is €1m less valuable than Crewe's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Northampton's attack is €1m less valuable than Crewe's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Northampton and Crewe have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STO (11)
€4m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Northampton and Crewe have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Stockport
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford
Mansfield
Barrow
Swindon
Grimsby
Tranmere
Sutton
Newport County
Walsall
Gillingham
Doncaster
Harrogate
Colchester
AFC Wimbledon
Crawley Town
Hartlepool
Rochdale