Nottingham Forest face Leeds in the Premier League on August 22nd, following a recent draw against Bournemouth. Leeds, however, are coming off a 0-3 defeat to West Ham. The model predicts a home win, with a 44% chance of Nottingham Forest emerging victorious, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of Leeds winning.
The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 1-1 with a 14.3% probability. In terms of scoring, Nottingham Forest average 1.38 goals at home, conceding 0.88, while Leeds average 1.0 goal away, conceding 1.82 against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.8% probability and a 10% edge. The suggested picks also include a Home win (44%), a Draw (31%), and an Away win (25%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Nottingham Forest, was tipped to win with a 44 % probability, but Leeds snatched a 1-0 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Every suggested selection proved correct: Under 7.5 (99.8 %) hit, Under 6.5 (99.2 %) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.4 %) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 %) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4 %) hit, Under 5.5 (97.2 %) hit, and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1 %) hit. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals and all other outcomes, despite the wrong favourite.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nottingham Forest win✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.33
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.40
Dafabet
2.37
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.36
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.33
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.44
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Leeds win✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.09
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.25
Unibet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Betfair
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nottingham Forest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.13
1.07
0.64
1.94
1.56
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.83
0.33
0.33
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.21
1.27
0.73
1.92
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.79
1.00
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.71
1.50
2.25
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.05
1.90
0.50
1.27
1.55
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.30-4.9%
Under 1.5
32.8%
@ 3.36+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.32
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.2%
@ 1.96-9.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
@ 1.85+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Unibet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
SBO
1.99
Under
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 3.36-8.8%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.30+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.51
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
@ 1.73-8.1%
No
54.1%
@ 2.04+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
No
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 6.05+6.8%
1-0
12.5%@ 7.67+6.6%
0-0
11.8%@ 9.70+7.1%
2-0
9.1%@ 11.14+5.0%
0-1 ✓
8.6%@ 9.13+3.6%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.66+3.3%
1-2
6.1%@ 10.34+1.7%
0-2
4.6%@ 14.89+1.6%
Nottingham Forest goals ↓
Leeds goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.6%
4.6%
1.5%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.1%
8.5%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.0%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nottingham Forest goals (down), columns = Leeds goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Nottingham Forest is 0.08 points worse than Leeds in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Nottingham Forest is 0.03 goals worse than Leeds in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Nottingham Forest is 0.13 goals better than Leeds in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Nottingham Forest is 0.6 percentage points better than Leeds in terms of average possession (46% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nottingham Forest
For 4.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leeds
For 4.3 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nottingham Forest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.5
3.0
4.0
23.4
22.0
24.8
vs Stronger (10)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.2
3.5
2.8
21.8
24.3
18.0
vs Similar (40)
10.1
9.8
10.2
3.6
2.8
4.3
23.8
21.3
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
56%
52%
50%
40%
60%
62%
52%
72%
% under line
46%
44%
48%
50%
60%
40%
38%
48%
28%
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
21.8
20.9
22.6
vs Stronger (9)
8.7
9.8
7.8
4.1
3.2
4.8
22.2
21.5
22.8
vs Similar (33)
9.6
9.7
9.6
3.4
3.8
3.1
22.2
22.3
22.1
vs Weaker (8)
10.8
9.7
11.4
2.8
1.7
3.4
19.5
12.3
23.8
% over line
50%
52%
48%
42%
43%
41%
52%
48%
56%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
58%
57%
59%
48%
52%
44%
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.5
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Chelsea
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Ipswich
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.7
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Sunderland
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Brighton
4.0
Brentford
3.8
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Everton
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.0
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Sunderland
22.8
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Leeds
21.8
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.5%
@ 1.81+2.7%
Under 9.5
45.5%
@ 1.94-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
@ 1.80-8.4%
Under 3.5
56.3%
@ 1.95+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.8%
@ 1.86+0.9%
Under 21.5
49.2%
@ 1.86-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.82
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nottingham Forest or Draw✗ Miss
74.6%
Avg Implied 69.3% · @ 1.36
Edge
+5.3%
44%
31%
25%
covers Nottingham Forest + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Nottingham Forest or Leeds✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.32
Edge
-2.3%
44%
31%
25%
covers Nottingham Forest + Leeds
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Draw or Leeds✓ Hit
56.0%
Avg Implied 58.9% · @ 1.60
Edge
-2.9%
44%
31%
25%
covers Draw + Leeds
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
SBO
1.61
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.2%
@ 1.25-1.4%
Under
26.8%
@ 3.67+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.89
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.9%
@ 2.24-3.9%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.61+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.29
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.05-3.8%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.15+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Nottingham Forest over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 11.74-3.6%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.70
Superbet
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Leeds over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.9%
@ 1.35-8.1%
Under
39.1%
@ 3.00+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.13
Betano
3.05
888Sport
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Leeds over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.2%
@ 2.72-10.1%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.42+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
Marathonbet
2.81
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Leeds over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 6.73-6.9%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.09+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.20
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Leeds over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 16.94-4.1%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nottingham Forest, so a minus line means Nottingham Forest give that many goals of a start and Leeds receive them. At -1, Nottingham Forest must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nottingham Forest win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.79
0.21
0.44
0.31
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.64
0.18
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.41-0.1%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 2.83+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 2.83-2.7%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.40+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.93
Superbet
2.90
Unibet
2.90
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 7.38-3.0%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.07+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.7%
@ 1.99-0.0%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.75+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 6.14-2.7%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.09+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 15.88-3.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Leeds over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.1%
@ 2.26-6.1%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.58+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Unibet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.56
Leeds over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 7.65-4.2%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.05+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Leeds over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 19.25-3.5%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nottingham Forest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.64
0.36
1.12
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.62
0.82
0.36
1.15
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.00
0.79
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.95
1.00
0.50
0.64
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.3%
Under 0.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.1%
Under 1.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.7%
Under 2.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.2%
Under
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.21
-
-
-
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.8%
1.42
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.9%
1.50
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.39
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.6%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.36
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
74.6%
1.36
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
-1.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nottingham Forest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ola Aina67%
Jair67%
Xaver Schlager33%
Igor Jesus33%
Murillo33%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Leeds
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
James Justin33%
Anton Stach33%
Ethan Ampadu0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Ampadu33%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Nottingham Forest's squad is €124m more valuable than Leeds's (€551m vs €427m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Nottingham Forest's attack is €98m more valuable than Leeds's (€263m vs €166m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Nottingham Forest's midfield is €46m less valuable than Leeds's (€52m vs €98m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Nottingham Forest's defence is €72m more valuable than Leeds's (€236m vs €163m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham