This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.77
2.47
1.40
1.67
2.13
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
3.00
2.00
3.00
1.33
3.00
vs Similar (21)
2.05
1.67
2.20
1.30
1.91
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
1.20
3.25
1.25
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.6%
2-0
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
5.2%
Nottingham Forest goals ↓
Newcastle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
7.3%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.4%
14%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.7%
8.9%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.3%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nottingham Forest goals (down), columns = Newcastle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Blackpool
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Coventry
2.00
Derby
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Watford
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Stoke
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Southampton
1.75
Preston
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Birmingham
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Cardiff
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Reading
1.00
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bournemouth
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Salford
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Hull
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Nottingham Forest is 1.71 points worse than Newcastle in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Notts County
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Stoke
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Swindon
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Sheffield United
2.00
Everton
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Reading
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Preston
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Tranmere
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Brentford
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Stockport
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Coventry
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Hull
1.00
Derby
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Colchester
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Salford
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Burton
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Nottingham Forest is 0.86 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Everton
0.50
Fulham
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Blackpool
0.67
Coventry
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bournemouth
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Bristol City
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Preston
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Brentford
1.25
Crystal Palace
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Sheffield United
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Tranmere
2.00
Salford
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Carlisle
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Hull
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Barnsley
2.67
Leeds
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Cheltenham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Morecambe
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Swindon
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Wrexham
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Nottingham Forest is 0.57 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nottingham Forest
For 4.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
For 6.5 · Against 6.9 · Total 13.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nottingham Forest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.5
4.1
3.8
4.4
21.7
20.7
22.6
vs Stronger (11)
10.7
11.4
10.2
4.3
3.0
5.3
21.0
19.0
22.7
vs Similar (37)
10.4
10.2
10.5
4.1
4.0
4.2
21.7
21.1
22.3
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
6.0
13.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
25.0
23.0
27.0
% over line
58%
58%
58%
60%
58%
62%
56%
50%
62%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
40%
42%
38%
44%
50%
38%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.1
4.6
4.6
4.6
23.4
23.6
23.2
vs Stronger (8)
10.0
12.5
7.5
5.5
5.0
6.0
23.0
22.0
24.0
vs Similar (34)
10.4
10.4
10.3
4.7
5.1
4.4
23.8
24.4
23.3
vs Weaker (8)
11.4
11.0
12.0
3.1
2.8
3.7
22.0
22.4
21.3
% over line
52%
60%
44%
64%
64%
64%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
48%
40%
56%
36%
36%
36%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Manchester United
12.5
Plymouth
12.3
Tottenham
12.2
Coventry
11.8
Bournemouth
11.7
Exeter
11.7
Tranmere
11.7
Bromley
11.7
Fleetwood Town
11.6
Southampton
11.5
Peterboro
11.3
Everton
11.3
Liverpool
11.3
Middlesbrough
11.2
Grimsby
11.2
Blackburn
11.2
Wrexham
11.2
Derby
11.1
Harrogate
11.1
QPR
11.1
Luton
11.1
Huddersfield
11.0
Port Vale
10.9
Stoke
10.9
Crewe
10.9
West Brom
10.8
Notts County
10.8
Morecambe
10.8
Charlton
10.7
Fulham
10.7
Bolton
10.7
Mansfield
10.7
Wycombe
10.6
Sheffield United
10.6
Walsall
10.6
Hull
10.6
Oxford
10.6
Sheffield Weds
10.6
Crawley Town
10.5
Norwich
10.5
Colchester
10.5
Leeds
10.5
Brentford
10.5
Barnsley
10.5
Birmingham
10.5
Newcastle
10.5
Swindon
10.5
Bristol City
10.5
Manchester City
10.5
Ipswich
10.5
Burnley
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Bristol Rvs
10.4
Reading
10.4
Sunderland
10.3
Leyton Orient
10.3
Swansea
10.3
Doncaster
10.3
Wolves
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.3
Rotherham
10.3
Accrington
10.2
Millwall
10.2
Cheltenham
10.2
Chelsea
10.1
Bradford
10.1
Crystal Palace
10.0
West Ham
10.0
Portsmouth
10.0
Newport County
10.0
Leicester
9.9
Stevenage
9.9
Gillingham
9.9
Carlisle
9.9
Watford
9.8
Salford
9.8
Cambridge
9.7
Aston Villa
9.7
AFC Wimbledon
9.6
Blackpool
9.6
Lincoln
9.5
Barrow
9.5
Brighton
9.5
Preston
9.4
Milton Keynes Dons
9.4
Cardiff
9.4
Stockport
9.3
Wigan
9.3
Arsenal
9.2
Northampton
9.0
Chesterfield
9.0
Burton
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.2
Brighton
5.0
Portsmouth
5.0
Aston Villa
4.9
Wolves
4.9
Southampton
4.9
Chelsea
4.8
Sunderland
4.8
Tottenham
4.7
Lincoln
4.7
Newcastle
4.6
Colchester
4.6
Crawley Town
4.6
Stevenage
4.5
Salford
4.5
Bradford
4.5
Doncaster
4.5
Notts County
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Morecambe
4.4
Bolton
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.3
QPR
4.3
Milton Keynes Dons
4.3
Exeter
4.3
Oxford
4.3
Coventry
4.3
Sheffield Weds
4.3
Watford
4.2
Stoke
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Blackpool
4.2
Leicester
4.2
Burnley
4.2
Charlton
4.2
Leeds
4.2
Hull
4.2
Cheltenham
4.2
Manchester United
4.2
Brentford
4.1
Swansea
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.1
Tranmere
4.1
Norwich
4.1
Millwall
4.1
Nottingham Forest
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Liverpool
4.1
Gillingham
4.1
Blackburn
4.0
Crystal Palace
4.0
Plymouth
4.0
West Ham
4.0
Bournemouth
4.0
Barrow
4.0
Port Vale
4.0
Mansfield
4.0
Walsall
3.9
Barnsley
3.9
Burton
3.9
Ipswich
3.9
Wycombe
3.9
Sheffield United
3.9
Luton
3.9
Birmingham
3.9
Shrewsbury
3.9
Accrington
3.8
Leyton Orient
3.8
Swindon
3.8
Middlesbrough
3.8
Huddersfield
3.8
Wrexham
3.8
Derby
3.7
Arsenal
3.7
Fulham
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Preston
3.6
Stockport
3.6
Reading
3.6
Bromley
3.6
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Grimsby
3.5
Northampton
3.4
Peterboro
3.4
Newport County
3.4
Carlisle
3.3
Bristol City
3.2
Harrogate
3.2
Rotherham
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
25.2
Portsmouth
24.8
Wigan
24.6
Accrington
24.5
Tottenham
24.2
Wolves
24.1
Luton
23.8
Cheltenham
23.7
Crystal Palace
23.6
Watford
23.6
Doncaster
23.5
Bolton
23.5
Birmingham
23.4
Newcastle
23.4
Aston Villa
23.4
Bromley
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Salford
23.3
Chelsea
23.2
Sunderland
23.2
Cambridge
23.1
Grimsby
23.0
Brighton
22.9
Swansea
22.9
Huddersfield
22.9
Bristol Rvs
22.9
Bournemouth
22.9
AFC Wimbledon
22.8
Coventry
22.8
Leeds
22.8
Hull
22.8
Ipswich
22.8
QPR
22.8
Preston
22.7
Stockport
22.7
Bradford
22.6
Sheffield Weds
22.5
Stoke
22.5
Blackpool
22.4
Lincoln
22.4
Millwall
22.2
Liverpool
22.2
Southampton
22.2
Plymouth
22.1
Arsenal
21.9
Burton
21.9
Fleetwood Town
21.9
Shrewsbury
21.8
Newport County
21.7
Exeter
21.7
Oxford
21.7
Barrow
21.7
Everton
21.7
Nottingham Forest
21.7
Reading
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Crewe
21.5
Burnley
21.4
Colchester
21.3
Walsall
21.3
Derby
21.2
Norwich
21.2
Brentford
21.2
Crawley Town
21.1
Mansfield
21.1
Wycombe
21.1
Leicester
21.1
West Ham
21.0
Chesterfield
21.0
Morecambe
21.0
Fulham
21.0
Charlton
20.9
Rotherham
20.8
Swindon
20.8
Gillingham
20.7
Wrexham
20.5
Leyton Orient
20.5
Port Vale
20.4
Bristol City
20.4
Barnsley
20.3
Peterboro
20.3
Northampton
20.2
Cardiff
20.1
Harrogate
20.0
Carlisle
20.0
Tranmere
20.0
Sheffield United
19.9
Manchester United
19.9
Blackburn
19.7
Notts County
19.6
Manchester City
19.0
West Brom
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.0%
Under 21.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nottingham Forest or Draw✓ Hit
70.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Nottingham Forest + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest or Newcastle✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Nottingham Forest + Newcastle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Newcastle✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Newcastle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nottingham Forest, so a minus line means Nottingham Forest give that many goals of a start and Newcastle receive them. At -1, Nottingham Forest must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nottingham Forest win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.57
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
1.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nottingham Forest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.69
1.06
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.92
0.75
0.92
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.13
1.40
0.80
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.25
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.10
1.40
0.80
0.91
1.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nottingham Forest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Wood42%
Morgan Gibbs-White18%
Callum Hudson-Odoi14%
Ramón Sosa13%
Nikola Milenković12%
Anthony Elanga12%
Jota Silva11%
Ryan Yates10%
Taiwo Awoniyi6%
Ola Aina5%
Murillo5%
Elliot Anderson5%
Neco Williams3%
Matz Sels0%
James Ward-Prowse0%
Nicolás Domínguez0%
Carlos Miguel0%
Harry Toffolo0%
Willy Boly0%
Ibrahim Sangaré0%
Álex Moreno0%
Morato0%
Danilo0%
Eric da Silva Moreira0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Morgan Gibbs-White32%
Ryan Yates31%
Nicolás Domínguez28%
Elliot Anderson26%
Ibrahim Sangaré24%
Neco Williams23%
Morato21%
Jota Silva16%
Álex Moreno16%
Murillo15%
Harry Toffolo14%
Ola Aina14%
Willy Boly11%
Nikola Milenković10%
James Ward-Prowse10%
Matz Sels10%
Ramón Sosa9%
Callum Hudson-Odoi6%
Chris Wood2%
Anthony Elanga2%
Taiwo Awoniyi0%
Carlos Miguel0%
Danilo0%
Eric da Silva Moreira0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Elanga23%
Morgan Gibbs-White21%
Elliot Anderson14%
Ibrahim Sangaré12%
James Ward-Prowse10%
Neco Williams8%
Chris Wood8%
Callum Hudson-Odoi6%
Jota Silva5%
Álex Moreno5%
Nikola Milenković5%
Ramón Sosa4%
Ola Aina3%
Nicolás Domínguez3%
Ryan Yates3%
Matz Sels0%
Taiwo Awoniyi0%
Carlos Miguel0%
Harry Toffolo0%
Willy Boly0%
Morato0%
Danilo0%
Murillo0%
Eric da Silva Moreira0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Chris Wood25%
Morgan Gibbs-White24%
Elliot Anderson7%
Anthony Elanga7%
Ryan Yates5%
Neco Williams5%
Ramón Sosa4%
Taiwo Awoniyi3%
Callum Hudson-Odoi3%
Jota Silva3%
Nicolás Domínguez3%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
James Ward-Prowse0%
Carlos Miguel0%
Harry Toffolo0%
Willy Boly0%
Ibrahim Sangaré0%
Álex Moreno0%
Morato0%
Danilo0%
Murillo0%
Eric da Silva Moreira0%
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alexander Isak52%
Anthony Gordon21%
Harvey Barnes20%
Jacob Murphy17%
Fabian Schär14%
Sandro Tonali11%
Joelinton11%
Bruno Guimarães11%
William Osula11%
Lewis Miley11%
Joe Willock5%
Callum Wilson5%
Dan Burn4%
Kieran Trippier0%
Miguel Almirón0%
Emil Krafth0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Sean Longstaff0%
Nick Pope0%
Matt Targett0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Sven Botman0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Lewis Hall0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joelinton32%
Fabian Schär29%
Dan Burn26%
Bruno Guimarães21%
Lloyd Kelly14%
Sandro Tonali13%
Sean Longstaff12%
Nick Pope12%
Joe Willock12%
Lewis Hall12%
Emil Krafth11%
Sven Botman10%
Jacob Murphy10%
Anthony Gordon10%
Valentino Livramento7%
William Osula5%
Callum Wilson5%
Kieran Trippier3%
Alexander Isak2%
Miguel Almirón0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Matt Targett0%
Lewis Miley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jacob Murphy29%
Matt Targett20%
Bruno Guimarães15%
Alexander Isak14%
Anthony Gordon14%
Lewis Hall12%
Harvey Barnes10%
Kieran Trippier10%
Joelinton8%
Lloyd Kelly7%
Sandro Tonali7%
William Osula5%
Joe Willock5%
Sean Longstaff3%
Fabian Schär2%
Valentino Livramento2%
Dan Burn2%
Miguel Almirón0%
Emil Krafth0%
Callum Wilson0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Nick Pope0%
Sven Botman0%
Lewis Miley0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexander Isak33%
Harvey Barnes15%
Anthony Gordon12%
William Osula11%
Jacob Murphy10%
Joelinton8%
Joe Willock7%
Miguel Almirón7%
Bruno Guimarães6%
Fabian Schär5%
Lewis Hall3%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Callum Wilson0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Sean Longstaff0%
Nick Pope0%
Matt Targett0%
Dan Burn0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Sandro Tonali0%
Sven Botman0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Lewis Miley0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Nottingham Forest's squad is €17m less valuable than Newcastle's (€551m vs €568m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Nottingham Forest's attack is €29m more valuable than Newcastle's (€263m vs €234m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Nottingham Forest's midfield is €72m less valuable than Newcastle's (€52m vs €124m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Nottingham Forest's defence is €26m more valuable than Newcastle's (€236m vs €210m).
England: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Liverpool
Arsenal
Manchester City
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Brighton
Bournemouth
Brentford
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Everton
West Ham
Manchester United
Wolves
Tottenham
Leicester
Ipswich
Southampton