This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.73
1.19
1.69
0.93
1.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.00
1.68
1.07
1.50
0.91
1.91
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
2.33
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.5%
@ 1.54+0.8%
Under 2.5
38.5%
@ 2.38-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
6.8%
3-0 ✓
6.2%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
5.3%
Notts County goals ↓
Doncaster goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.7%
2.6%
0.9%
0.3%
1
7.7%
11%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.2%
6.8%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.2%
3.5%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Notts County goals (down), columns = Doncaster goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Notts County is 0.22 points worse than Doncaster in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Notts County is 0.35 goals better than Doncaster in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Notts County is 0.39 goals worse than Doncaster in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Notts County is 15.3 percentage points better than Doncaster in terms of average possession (65% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Notts County
For 5.5 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
For 5.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.2 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
11.4
8.3
4.2
3.7
4.7
19.3
18.8
19.8
vs Stronger (2)
17.0
17.0
-
5.5
5.0
6.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Similar (19)
9.4
10.2
8.4
4.3
3.6
5.0
20.5
19.7
21.6
vs Weaker (29)
9.5
11.8
8.3
4.0
3.7
4.4
17.9
17.0
18.4
% over line
39%
64%
17%
62%
56%
68%
30%
27%
33%
% under line
61%
36%
83%
38%
44%
32%
70%
73%
67%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.2
10.3
3.8
3.8
3.9
20.1
19.8
20.3
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
-
10.0
4.0
-
4.0
21.7
-
21.7
vs Similar (40)
9.6
9.5
9.7
3.9
4.0
3.9
20.2
20.0
20.4
vs Weaker (7)
10.1
7.6
16.5
3.3
3.0
4.0
18.7
19.2
17.5
% over line
50%
50%
50%
54%
58%
50%
40%
31%
50%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
46%
42%
50%
60%
69%
50%
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wrexham
12.0
Crewe
11.1
Tranmere
11.0
Morecambe
10.6
Forest Green
10.5
Harrogate
10.5
Colchester
10.3
Milton Keynes Dons
10.0
Accrington
9.9
Swindon
9.9
Grimsby
9.9
Bradford
9.9
Notts County
9.8
Crawley Town
9.7
Doncaster
9.7
Salford
9.5
Stockport
9.5
Walsall
9.5
Newport County
9.5
Sutton
9.4
Mansfield
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.3
Barrow
8.7
Gillingham
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Colchester
4.6
Crawley Town
4.3
Swindon
4.3
AFC Wimbledon
4.3
Accrington
4.3
Notts County
4.2
Bradford
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.1
Forest Green
4.0
Salford
3.9
Barrow
3.9
Walsall
3.9
Mansfield
3.9
Doncaster
3.8
Tranmere
3.7
Morecambe
3.7
Crewe
3.7
Gillingham
3.6
Newport County
3.5
Grimsby
3.4
Wrexham
3.3
Sutton
3.3
Harrogate
3.2
Stockport
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
25.5
AFC Wimbledon
24.0
Sutton
22.8
Barrow
22.8
Crewe
22.5
Salford
22.3
Milton Keynes Dons
22.3
Stockport
22.2
Bradford
22.2
Gillingham
22.2
Newport County
22.1
Crawley Town
22.0
Swindon
21.9
Walsall
21.7
Colchester
21.6
Grimsby
21.6
Mansfield
21.1
Forest Green
20.9
Morecambe
20.5
Tranmere
20.4
Harrogate
20.3
Doncaster
20.1
Wrexham
19.9
Notts County
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.7%
Under 9.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.9%
Under 3.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
41.4%
Under 21.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.40
0.33
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.45
1.83
0.67
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.59
1.25
0.12
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.56
0.75
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.84
0.57
0.71
0.27
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.13
1.00
1.20
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.09
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
1.00
1.62
0.62
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.62
0.94
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.84
0.50
0.79
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Notts County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Roberts67%
Oliver Cooper33%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Gibbons33%
Jack Evans33%
Darius Lipsiuc33%
Callum Roberts0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Tsaroulla100%
Callum Roberts0%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Callum Roberts0%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
Doncaster · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Senior25%
Alfie May25%
Isaac Hutchinson25%
Owen Bailey25%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
Jay McGrath0%
Sean Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
Jordan Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Robbie Gotts33%
Jordan Thomas33%
Jack Senior25%
Isaac Hutchinson25%
Owen Bailey25%
George Broadbent25%
Jay McGrath25%
Neill Byrne0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Alfie May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
Sean Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bayley McCann33%
Jack Senior25%
Jay McGrath25%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Alfie May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Isaac Hutchinson0%
Jamie Sterry0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
Sean Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Jordan Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Owen Bailey25%
Neill Byrne0%
Jack Senior0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Alfie May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Isaac Hutchinson0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
Jay McGrath0%
Sean Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
Jordan Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Notts County and Doncaster have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Notts County and Doncaster have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Notts County and Doncaster have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Notts County's defence is €1m less valuable than Doncaster's (€2m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Gillingham
Harrogate
Morecambe
Tranmere
Accrington
Newport County
Swindon
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Sutton
Forest Green