This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.27
2.38
0.88
1.00
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.64
3.00
0.86
1.14
2.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.93
2.00
0.88
0.86
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.3%
@ 1.47+0.7%
Under 2.5
35.7%
@ 2.57-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.5%
No
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.1%
0-1
5.1%
1-0
5.0%
2-0
4.9%
Notts County goals ↓
Milton Keynes Dons goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.1%
5.1%
2.9%
1.2%
1
5.0%
11%
8.4%
4.7%
2.0%
2
4.9%
8.2%
6.9%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.7%
4.5%
3.7%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Notts County goals (down), columns = Milton Keynes Dons goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Notts County is 0.37 points worse than Milton Keynes Dons in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Notts County is 0.13 goals better than Milton Keynes Dons in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Notts County is 0.39 goals worse than Milton Keynes Dons in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Notts County is 6.8 percentage points better than Milton Keynes Dons in terms of average possession (65% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Notts County
For 5.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.4 · Against 12.8 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Milton Keynes Dons
For 4.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 14.4 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.1
9.8
4.3
4.3
4.3
19.4
19.3
19.5
vs Stronger (3)
16.0
17.0
15.0
4.7
5.0
4.5
18.0
21.0
15.0
vs Similar (20)
10.0
10.8
9.3
4.6
4.3
4.8
20.3
19.6
21.0
vs Weaker (27)
10.3
10.8
9.8
4.0
4.2
3.8
18.6
18.9
18.4
% over line
52%
58%
48%
62%
60%
64%
32%
32%
33%
% under line
48%
42%
52%
38%
40%
36%
68%
68%
67%
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.6
4.4
4.3
4.5
22.9
21.8
24.2
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
11.0
9.0
5.5
6.0
5.0
20.5
17.0
24.0
vs Similar (26)
9.4
9.8
8.9
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.8
21.3
24.3
vs Weaker (22)
10.6
10.7
10.6
4.6
4.2
5.1
23.3
22.8
24.0
% over line
52%
54%
50%
66%
69%
62%
62%
50%
75%
% under line
48%
46%
50%
34%
31%
38%
38%
50%
25%
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wrexham
11.4
Tranmere
11.4
Grimsby
11.0
Harrogate
10.8
Colchester
10.7
Crewe
10.6
Morecambe
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Accrington
10.4
Notts County
10.4
Mansfield
10.4
Swindon
10.3
Doncaster
10.2
Forest Green
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Crawley Town
10.1
Newport County
10.1
Milton Keynes Dons
10.0
Salford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
Sutton
9.7
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Gillingham
9.4
Barrow
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Colchester
4.6
Crawley Town
4.6
AFC Wimbledon
4.5
Salford
4.4
Morecambe
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Milton Keynes Dons
4.4
Doncaster
4.4
Bradford
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Tranmere
4.1
Gillingham
4.1
Swindon
4.1
Walsall
4.0
Barrow
4.0
Mansfield
3.9
Accrington
3.9
Forest Green
3.8
Wrexham
3.7
Sutton
3.6
Grimsby
3.5
Stockport
3.5
Newport County
3.4
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
25.0
Milton Keynes Dons
22.9
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Salford
22.8
Stockport
22.6
Grimsby
22.6
Crewe
22.6
Barrow
22.6
Doncaster
22.4
Sutton
22.2
Bradford
22.0
Walsall
21.7
Newport County
21.7
Gillingham
21.5
Swindon
21.3
Crawley Town
21.3
Colchester
21.3
Morecambe
21.2
Mansfield
20.8
Wrexham
20.5
Forest Green
20.3
Tranmere
19.9
Harrogate
19.6
Notts County
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.4%
Under 9.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.2%
Under 3.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.7%
Under 21.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.77
1.47
0.67
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.67
1.50
0.62
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.92
1.67
0.83
1.14
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.44
0.38
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.14
1.57
0.57
0.57
1.71
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.27
1.38
0.12
0.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.20
0.62
1.25
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
1.08
0.50
0.83
0.71
1.29
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.94
0.50
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.50
1.43
0.29
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.67
0.62
0.75
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Notts County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Roberts67%
Oliver Cooper33%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Gibbons33%
Jack Evans33%
Darius Lipsiuc33%
Callum Roberts0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Tsaroulla100%
Callum Roberts0%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Callum Roberts0%
James Gibbons0%
James Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Jacob Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
Nick Tsaroulla0%
Jack Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
Darius Lipsiuc0%
Milton Keynes Dons · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Collins33%
Ryan Wintle33%
Gethin Jones0%
Charlie Goode0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Ben Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aaron Collins33%
Charlie Goode33%
Gethin Jones0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Ben Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ben Wiles33%
Gethin Jones0%
Aaron Collins0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Charlie Goode0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Goode33%
Gethin Jones0%
Aaron Collins0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Ben Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Notts County's squad is €8m less valuable than Milton Keynes Dons's (€6m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Notts County's attack is €2m less valuable than Milton Keynes Dons's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Notts County's midfield is €5m less valuable than Milton Keynes Dons's (€2m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Notts County and Milton Keynes Dons have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Doncaster
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Gillingham
Harrogate
Morecambe
Tranmere
Accrington
Newport County
Swindon
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Sutton
Forest Green