This opponent (Newport County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.70
1.81
1.56
1.29
1.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.70
1.70
2.00
1.55
1.42
1.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.4%
@ 1.49+5.6%
Under 2.5
31.6%
@ 2.52-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.9%
Under 3.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
3-0 ✓
5.5%
1-2
5.4%
Notts County goals ↓
Newport County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
1
5.8%
9.3%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.5%
7.1%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
4
3.1%
4.0%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Notts County goals (down), columns = Newport County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Notts County is 0.13 points better than Newport County in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Notts County is 0.59 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Notts County is 0.22 goals worse than Newport County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Notts County is 20.7 percentage points better than Newport County in terms of average possession (65% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Notts County
For 6.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
For 4.7 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
12.0
8.6
3.9
3.5
4.4
18.6
20.0
17.5
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
5.5
5.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.5
10.7
8.3
3.9
3.1
4.6
20.0
21.0
19.0
vs Weaker (32)
10.5
13.3
8.8
3.8
3.6
4.1
17.5
19.0
16.6
% over line
36%
67%
12%
56%
48%
64%
36%
50%
25%
% under line
64%
33%
88%
44%
52%
36%
64%
50%
75%
This opponent (Newport County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.5
9.4
3.5
4.0
3.1
22.3
22.4
22.3
vs Stronger (6)
10.7
9.8
12.5
2.3
3.0
1.0
21.0
20.8
21.5
vs Similar (37)
9.1
9.2
9.0
3.7
4.4
3.1
22.5
22.6
22.4
vs Weaker (7)
10.1
10.5
9.7
3.7
3.5
4.0
22.4
23.0
21.7
% over line
36%
32%
40%
52%
60%
44%
60%
64%
56%
% under line
64%
68%
60%
48%
40%
56%
40%
36%
44%
This opponent (Notts County) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wrexham
11.9
Crewe
11.2
Colchester
10.7
Tranmere
10.6
Forest Green
10.5
Morecambe
10.5
Milton Keynes Dons
10.3
Harrogate
10.2
Bradford
10.1
Notts County
10.1
Swindon
10.0
Accrington
10.0
Crawley Town
10.0
Grimsby
9.9
Mansfield
9.5
Salford
9.5
AFC Wimbledon
9.5
Stockport
9.4
Newport County
9.4
Walsall
9.3
Sutton
9.3
Barrow
9.2
Doncaster
9.1
Gillingham
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.5
Colchester
4.5
Accrington
4.4
Swindon
4.3
Crawley Town
4.0
Morecambe
4.0
Bradford
4.0
Forest Green
3.9
Notts County
3.9
Barrow
3.9
Milton Keynes Dons
3.9
Walsall
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Salford
3.8
Doncaster
3.6
Crewe
3.5
Newport County
3.5
Gillingham
3.5
Sutton
3.5
Grimsby
3.4
Tranmere
3.4
Stockport
3.2
Wrexham
3.2
Harrogate
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
25.2
AFC Wimbledon
25.1
Barrow
23.3
Sutton
23.2
Gillingham
23.1
Stockport
22.8
Salford
22.6
Crewe
22.6
Grimsby
22.4
Newport County
22.3
Colchester
22.3
Bradford
22.1
Crawley Town
22.0
Walsall
21.7
Swindon
21.6
Milton Keynes Dons
21.6
Forest Green
21.3
Mansfield
21.3
Morecambe
20.8
Harrogate
20.3
Tranmere
20.2
Doncaster
19.9
Wrexham
19.9
Notts County
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.2%
Under 9.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.3%
Under 3.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
42.0%
Under 21.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.73
1.20
1.00
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.44
1.10
0.30
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.81
0.88
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.83
0.91
0.82
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.83
1.67
0.67
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.72
0.83
1.90
0.50
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.69
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.87
1.09
0.73
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Notts County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Roberts50%
Oliver Cooper50%
Luka Smyth33%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
H. Mustapha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Lipsiuc50%
Luka Smyth33%
H. Mustapha33%
J. Gibbons25%
J. Bedeau25%
Oliver Cooper25%
J. Evans25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Tsaroulla75%
C. Roberts25%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Luka Smyth0%
H. Mustapha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luka Smyth67%
H. Mustapha33%
Conor Grant25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Oliver Cooper0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
H. Biggins50%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
C. Norman25%
Ciaran Brennan25%
Alfie Merritt25%
H. Biggins0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
H. Biggins25%
Alfie Merritt25%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Biggins25%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Notts County's squad is €4m more valuable than Newport County's (€6m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Notts County's attack is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Notts County's midfield is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Notts County and Newport County have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Gillingham
Harrogate
Morecambe
Tranmere
Accrington
Swindon
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Sutton
Forest Green