The clash between Odra Opole and Stal Rzeszów is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving plenty of room for surprise. The probabilities are 41% for Odra to lift the trophy, 30% for a draw, and 29% for Stal to come away with the victory. The expected total of goals sits at 2.4, pointing to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Odra’s home form shows an average of 1.45 goals scored and conceded against similar opposition, while Stal, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.33 conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 77.8% and Over 1.5 goals at 70.5%. The match is balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick, and both sides have recent momentum - Odra coming off a win against Wisła Kraków and Stal riding a two-game winning streak.
Results analysis
Odra Opole’s recent win over Wisla Krakow has kept their momentum alive, while Stal Rzeszów’s two-game winning streak suggests they were eager to keep the run going. The model’s favourite, a home win, came through as the final score was 2-0, confirming the prediction. The pre-match probability for the home win was 41 percent, and the model’s selection proved correct. The suggested picks also performed: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 77.8 percent probability, and Over 1.5 goals hit with a 70.5 percent probability. All outcomes matched the model’s expectations, underscoring its accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Odra Opole win✓ Hit
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Odra Opole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.43
1.20
1.40
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.59
1.45
1.45
1.18
1.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.33
2.60
1.27
1.00
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.76
1.36
2.46
1.38
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.00
5.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.4%
2-0 ✓
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.2%
Odra Opole goals ↓
Stal Rzeszów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.4%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.6%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.6%
3.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Odra Opole goals (down), columns = Stal Rzeszów goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ŁKS Łódź
1.94
Ruch Chorzów
1.82
Nieciecza
1.81
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.72
Wisla Krakow
1.71
Stal Rzeszów
1.46
Podbeskidzie
1.44
Arka Gdynia
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.35
GKS Katowice
1.29
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.24
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Tychy 71
1.15
Resovia Rzeszów
1.12
Odra Opole
1.09
SKRA Częstochowa
0.91
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.79
Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.79
Odra Opole is 0.37 points worse than Stal Rzeszów in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
1.77
ŁKS Łódź
1.71
Podbeskidzie
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.65
Nieciecza
1.64
Stal Rzeszów
1.63
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.53
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
Tychy 71
1.35
Chrobry Głogów
1.29
Resovia Rzeszów
1.26
GKS Katowice
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Odra Opole
1.15
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.03
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.97
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.82
SKRA Częstochowa
0.56
Odra Opole is 0.48 goals worse than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ruch Chorzów
0.97
ŁKS Łódź
1.06
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.08
Nieciecza
1.08
GKS Katowice
1.15
Wisla Krakow
1.20
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.26
Stal Rzeszów
1.31
Górnik Łęczna
1.32
Arka Gdynia
1.32
Podbeskidzie
1.38
Odra Opole
1.41
SKRA Częstochowa
1.47
Resovia Rzeszów
1.50
Tychy 71
1.53
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.59
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.68
Odra Opole is 0.10 goals worse than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Odra Opole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.73
0.55
0.73
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.20
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.64
1.08
0.69
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Odra Opole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.00
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.86
0.91
0.73
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.40
0.60
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.72
1.38
0.69
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
AG (23)
€5m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
POD (5)
€1m
Odra Opole's squad is €1m more valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
GK (7)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
POD (1)
€0m
Odra Opole and Stal Rzeszów have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GK (10)
€6m
WK (4)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
Odra Opole's midfield is €1m more valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
AG (9)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
POD (2)
€0m
Odra Opole and Stal Rzeszów have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →