Oldham are favoured to win, with a 44 % chance of triumph, 30 % for a draw and 26 % for Swindon. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.2 %. Oldham, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Swindon away against a similar side average 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 % with a 5 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1 % with a 3 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.1 % with a 5 % edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (95.4 % with a 4 % edge). Oldham come off a defeat to Colchester, Swindon return from a win over Cheltenham.
Results analysis
Oldham’s recent form, highlighted by a 3-0 win over Swindon, set the stage for a home victory that the Pythia model predicted correctly. The model favoured a Home win with a 45% probability, and the final score of 3-0 confirmed that call. The suggested selections were all accurate: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.1%) hit, and Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%) hit. The model’s predictions, including the 2-goal margin and the low-scoring nature of the match, aligned perfectly with the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oldham win✓ Hit
44.9%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.94
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.01
SBO
1.99
Pinnacle
1.97
BetVictor
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.45
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Swindon win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.69
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
1xBet
3.86
Marathonbet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.85
Betano
3.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Oldham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.13
1.64
0.71
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
0.80
1.67
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.20
1.64
0.73
1.50
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.37
1.71
1.14
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.38
1.31
1.71
1.14
1.07
1.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.27-5.5%
Under 1.5
32.1%
@ 3.50+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.71
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 1.88-9.8%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.87+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
@ 3.16-9.6%
Under 3.5
80.2%
@ 1.32+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
@ 1.73-7.1%
No
53.6%
@ 1.99+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
No
1xBet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 6.20+7.0%
1-0
12.4%@ 6.93+6.0%
0-0
11.4%@ 9.68+6.9%
2-0
9.2%@ 8.87+4.2%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.88+3.0%
0-1
8.2%@ 10.32+3.9%
1-2
6.0%@ 11.48+2.2%
0-2
4.5%@ 18.18+2.0%
Oldham goals ↓
Swindon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.2%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.0%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.2%
8.7%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.2%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oldham goals (down), columns = Swindon goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Oldham is 0.15 points worse than Swindon in terms of average points per game (1.48 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Oldham is 0.22 goals worse than Swindon in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Oldham is 0.33 goals better than Swindon in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Oldham is 4.0 percentage points worse than Swindon in terms of average possession (48% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oldham
For 4.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
For 4.0 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 9.5 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oldham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.4
3.9
3.8
3.9
25.0
24.8
25.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.5
9.3
11.7
2.3
3.0
1.8
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.6
10.2
4.1
4.0
4.3
25.6
25.1
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
67%
60%
56%
64%
73%
71%
75%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
40%
44%
36%
27%
29%
25%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.3
11.1
3.3
3.7
2.9
20.4
20.7
20.1
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
25.0
-
25.0
vs Similar (48)
11.2
11.3
11.2
3.3
3.8
2.8
20.3
20.7
19.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
74%
72%
42%
58%
27%
38%
35%
40%
% under line
27%
26%
28%
58%
42%
73%
62%
65%
60%
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.91+5.6%
Under 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.81-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Unibet
1.68
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.6%
Under 21.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Oldham or Draw✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.24
Edge
+0.2%
45%
30%
25%
covers Oldham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Oldham or Swindon✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-3.8%
45%
30%
25%
covers Oldham + Swindon
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or Swindon✗ Miss
55.1%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.81
Edge
+3.5%
45%
30%
25%
covers Draw + Swindon
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Oldham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.1%
@ 1.19-4.2%
Under
25.9%
@ 4.27+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Oldham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.0%
@ 1.94-8.9%
Under
61.0%
@ 1.79+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Oldham over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.4%
@ 4.01-7.7%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.21+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.30
BetVictor
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Oldham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 9.07-5.5%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.05+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Swindon over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.9%
@ 1.42-4.3%
Under
39.1%
@ 2.67+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.92
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.64
Swindon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.2%
@ 3.10-5.9%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.33+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Under
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Swindon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 7.91-4.8%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.05+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Superbet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Swindon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 20.25-3.2%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Oldham, so a minus line means Oldham give that many goals of a start and Swindon receive them. At -1, Oldham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Oldham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Oldham)Actual: Oldham
Oldham -2
8.0%
@ 7.30-4.2%
Draw -2
13.8%
@ 5.40-2.8%
Swindon +2
78.2%
@ 1.26+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.80
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Away
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Oldham)Actual: Oldham
Oldham -1
21.8%
@ 3.42-4.4%
Draw -1
23.1%
@ 3.62-1.6%
Swindon +1
55.1%
@ 1.82+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Handicap +1 (Oldham)Actual: Oldham
Oldham +1
75.2%
@ 1.24+2.9%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 5.34-1.1%
Swindon -1
9.1%
@ 8.23-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Handicap +2 (Oldham)Actual: Oldham
Oldham +2
90.9%
@ 1.06+3.6%
Draw +2
6.7%
@ 10.93-1.8%
Swindon -2
2.4%
@ 21.67-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.80
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oldham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.81
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.48
0.45
0.45
0.79
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.57
0.57
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.38
0.59
0.57
0.57
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.3%
@ 1.37-2.8%
Under 0.5
34.7%
@ 2.91+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.1%
@ 2.71-4.2%
Under 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.41+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.8%
@ 6.79-3.8%
Under 2.5
90.2%
@ 1.07+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Under
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oldham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.6%
@ 1.83-3.1%
Under
52.4%
@ 1.88+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Oldham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 5.20-4.7%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.13+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Oldham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 13.67-4.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.40-2.8%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.51+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 8.78-3.8%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.04+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Superbet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 34.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oldham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.21
0.21
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.72
1.18
0.27
0.71
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.14
0.57
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.72
1.14
0.57
0.87
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.5%
@ 1.22+0.5%
Under 0.5
23.5%
@ 3.87-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.88
Marathonbet
3.88
Superbet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.4%
@ 2.08-6.4%
Under 1.5
61.6%
@ 1.69+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Unibet
2.06
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.8%
@ 4.44-4.1%
Under 2.5
83.2%
@ 1.17+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oldham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.4%
@ 1.59-3.0%
Under
44.6%
@ 2.23+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.10
Oldham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.4%
@ 3.72-5.4%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.23+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Oldham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 9.44-5.0%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.0%
@ 2.02-1.8%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.71+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.30-3.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.09+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 18.50-3.0%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.06
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.8%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.6%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.23
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
80.2%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.2%
1.26
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.8%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.2%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.2%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oldham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mike Fondop25%
Keenan Appiah-Forson25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Hudson25%
Donervon Daniels25%
Ryan Delaney25%
O. Norburn25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Kavanagh50%
J. Robson25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
E. Nevitt0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Kavanagh50%
F. Fawunmi33%
Gus Scott-Morriss25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
E. Nevitt0%
Swindon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Drinan50%
Ollie Clarke33%
B. Middlemas25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ollie Clarke33%
K. Majekodunmi33%
C. Ripley25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Munda67%
Stephan Negru25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
B. Middlemas0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Drinan50%
O. Palmer25%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Oldham and Swindon have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Oldham and Swindon have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Oldham and Swindon have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Oldham and Swindon have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
York
Cheltenham
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale