Oliveirense vs Penafiel Result & Analysis

Oliveirense are favoured to win, with a 44% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Penafiel winning. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.3% probability. Oliveirense, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Penafiel, on the road, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 96.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 94.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 91.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 85.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 83.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.3% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 75.8%, and Over 4.5 cards at 72.4%. Oliveirense’s recent form shows a win, while Penafiel are on a two-game winning streak. The match should see a high number of fouls and cards, with both sides likely to score.

Oliveirense’s win streak was halted as the match finished 1-1, a draw that defied the model’s pre-match favourite, a home win with a 44% probability. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which hit with a 76.3% probability. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely outcome of 1-1 (13.3%) and the expected total of 2.7 goals. Oliveirense, coming off a 4-0 victory, had a recent form of WLWDL, while Penafiel, on a two-game winning run, finished WWDLL. The upset left the model’s prediction off the mark.