Defensive solidity will shape the forecast as both sides have shown modest scoring and conceding figures. Olympiakos Piraeus II, at home, averages one goal for and 0.8 against against similar opposition, while Kallithea, on the road, scores 1.2 and concedes only 0.4. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 36% chance, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total is two goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.9% probability. The single most likely total of two goals carries a 28% chance. The suggested pick is Under 3.5, with an 85.5% probability. Olympiakos have struggled recently, losing three of their last five after a 0-3 defeat to Panionios, whereas Kallithea have come off a 1-3 loss to Larisa but have a better away record. The model’s selection remains the home win, with the Under 3.5 pick as the only other recommendation.
Results analysis
After a run of three straight defeats, Olympiakos Piraeus II’s win over Kallithea extends their recent form, while Kallithea, coming off a loss, saw their streak of wins and defeats continue. The final score was 5-4, a home win that matched the model’s pick and its 36% probability. The model had also forecast a total of 2.0 goals, the most likely scoreline being 1-1, but the match produced 9 goals, far exceeding expectations. The suggested pick of Under 3.5, with an 85.5% probability, missed as the game went well beyond that threshold. The model’s selection of a home win proved correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus II win✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kallithea win✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.05
1.10
1.40
0.70
0.70
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.33
1.00
0.80
0.57
1.71
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.40
3.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
35% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.78
2.33
0.89
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.00
3.00
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.75
0.50
2.14
0.57
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
3.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
39% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.1%
Under 1.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.7%
Under 2.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
14.5%
Under 3.5
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.7%
1-0
12.7%
0-1
11.5%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
6.2%
Olympiakos Piraeus II goals ↓
Kallithea goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.4%
7.1%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.6%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympiakos Piraeus II goals (down), columns = Kallithea goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Xanthi FC
3.00
Kifisia
2.33
Kallithea
2.30
Panserraikos
2.26
Larisa
2.04
Apollon Smirnis
2.00
Iraklis 1908
1.85
Niki Volos
1.81
Kissamikos
1.78
PAOK II
1.70
Kalamata
1.68
OF Ierapetra
1.67
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.63
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.52
Ilioupoli
1.46
Panachaiki FC
1.44
Almopos
1.22
Panathinaikos II
1.18
Egaleo
1.15
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.11
Apollon Pontou
1.07
Diagoras
1.04
Veria
1.04
Proodeftiki
0.96
AEK Athens II
0.96
Iraklis Larissa
0.85
Apollon Larissa FC
0.67
Thesprotos
0.63
Episkopi
0.48
PAO Rouf
0.35
Irodotos
0.24
Ergotelis
0.00
Olympiakos Piraeus II is 0.78 points worse than Kallithea in terms of average points per game (1.52 vs 2.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kifisia
2.15
Iraklis 1908
1.96
Kallithea
1.85
PAOK II
1.78
Larisa
1.74
Panserraikos
1.48
Niki Volos
1.41
Panathinaikos II
1.39
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.37
OF Ierapetra
1.33
Apollon Smirnis
1.32
Diagoras
1.31
Kissamikos
1.30
Ilioupoli
1.29
Kalamata
1.18
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.15
Panachaiki FC
1.07
AEK Athens II
1.00
Xanthi FC
1.00
Veria
0.93
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.93
Egaleo
0.89
Thesprotos
0.85
PAO Rouf
0.85
Proodeftiki
0.74
Almopos
0.74
Apollon Pontou
0.67
Apollon Larissa FC
0.53
Iraklis Larissa
0.52
Episkopi
0.52
Irodotos
0.35
Ergotelis
0.00
Olympiakos Piraeus II is 0.48 goals worse than Kallithea in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Xanthi FC
0.00
Panserraikos
0.48
Kifisia
0.59
Kalamata
0.61
Almopos
0.63
Kissamikos
0.67
Larisa
0.70
Apollon Smirnis
0.71
Niki Volos
0.74
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.78
Iraklis 1908
0.81
Kallithea
0.81
OF Ierapetra
0.93
Ergotelis
1.00
Panachaiki FC
1.07
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.11
Ilioupoli
1.14
Egaleo
1.15
Veria
1.19
PAOK II
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.30
AEK Athens II
1.30
Proodeftiki
1.37
Apollon Pontou
1.37
Panathinaikos II
1.46
Iraklis Larissa
1.56
Diagoras
1.62
Thesprotos
1.81
Episkopi
1.96
Irodotos
2.00
PAO Rouf
2.27
Apollon Larissa FC
3.07
Olympiakos Piraeus II is 0.48 goals worse than Kallithea in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.81).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.11
0.33
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.55
0.20
0.20
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.94
0.31
1.25
0.38
0.62
0.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.18
1.17
0.33
0.80
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
69% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
0.61
0.89
0.33
0.33
0.89
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
0.50
1.12
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.27
1.00
0.17
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kallithea · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Migouel Alfarela47%
Giannis Loukinas17%
Keelan Lebon15%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Pyry Soiri9%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin8%
Miguel Mellado7%
Roberts Uldriķis7%
Nikolaos Kenourgios5%
Mor Ndiaye4%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis4%
Javier Matilla4%
Demethryus3%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Josua Mejías0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Alessandro Mercati0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Triantafyllos Pasalidis46%
Josua Mejías38%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin33%
Alessandro Mercati30%
Georgios Vrakas27%
Miguel Mellado27%
Mor Ndiaye26%
Andreas Vasilogiannis25%
Andrei Moțoc25%
Javier Matilla23%
Elia Giani22%
Georgios Manthatis21%
François Régis Mughe20%
Nikolaos Kenourgios15%
Dimitrios Metaxas14%
Giannis Tsivelekidis14%
James McGarry12%
Samba Diba12%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Matěj Hanousek8%
Giannis Loukinas7%
Mathieu Valbuena6%
Pyry Soiri6%
Demethryus6%
Migouel Alfarela6%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mor Ndiaye13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Demethryus9%
Elia Giani9%
Andrei Moțoc8%
Javier Matilla8%
Keelan Lebon8%
Pyry Soiri6%
Josua Mejías4%
Georgios Manthatis4%
Giannis Loukinas3%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Migouel Alfarela29%
Roberts Uldriķis20%
Giannis Loukinas14%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Andreas Vasilogiannis8%
Demethryus6%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Mathieu Valbuena3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Javier Matilla0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Josua Mejías0%
Mor Ndiaye0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (28)
€11m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ILI (31)
€4m
MN (29)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
Olympiakos Piraeus II's squad is €1m less valuable than Kallithea's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
EGA (19)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
I1 (6)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Olympiakos Piraeus II and Kallithea have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
I1 (7)
€3m
KAL (6)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
Olympiakos Piraeus II and Kallithea have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
MN (15)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Olympiakos Piraeus II's defence is €1m less valuable than Kallithea's (€2m vs €3m).
Greece: Super League 2 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kifisia
Panserraikos
Apollon Smirnis
Larisa
Iraklis 1908
Niki Volos
Kissamikos
Kalamata
PAOK II
OF Ierapetra
Anagennisi Karditsas
Ilioupoli
Panachaiki FC
Almopos
Panathinaikos II
Egaleo
Makedonikos Neapolis
Apollon Pontou
Veria
Diagoras
AEK Athens II
Proodeftiki
Iraklis Larissa
Thesprotos
Episkopi
Apollon Larissa FC
PAO Rouf
Irodotos
Xanthi FC
Ergotelis