Olympiakos Piraeus II are favoured to win this Super League 2 clash, with a 44% chance of a home triumph, a 30% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an away win. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 14% probability. At home, Olympiakos have been prolific, scoring an average of 2.23 goals and conceding just 1.0 against similarly matched opponents. Kallithea, on the road, have managed 1.31 goals for and 1.0 against in comparable fixtures. The model’s selection for this match is Under 3.5 goals, with a 78.3% probability. Recent form shows Olympiakos struggling after three straight defeats, while Kallithea are coming off a loss, adding intrigue to the predicted home win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Olympiakos Piraeus II, failed to deliver as the match ended 1-2 in favour of Kallithea, extending the away side’s recent run of five games that includes a win after a defeat. The model had tipped a home win with a 44% probability, but that call proved wrong. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, came through with a 78.3% chance and indeed the total was 3, below the 3.5 threshold. The predicted most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, and the 2-goal total was the most probable outcome. Overall, the model’s main pick missed, while its secondary pick hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus II win✗ Miss
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kallithea win✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.17
2.12
0.94
1.08
1.46
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.29
2.23
1.00
1.09
1.64
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
3.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.80
2.00
0.60
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
1.33
3.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.50
0.75
1.73
0.45
1.31
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.67
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.5%
Under 2.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
10.5%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.0%
1-2 ✓
6.4%
0-2
4.6%
Olympiakos Piraeus II goals ↓
Kallithea goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.0%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.8%
8.8%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.1%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympiakos Piraeus II goals (down), columns = Kallithea goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levadiakos
2.47
Kallithea
2.13
Larisa
1.97
Kissamikos
1.90
Ionikos
1.57
Ilioupoli
1.53
PAOK II
1.53
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.38
Iraklis 1908
1.38
Niki Volos
1.37
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.33
Egaleo
1.31
Diagoras
1.31
AEK Athens II
1.27
Kalamata
1.27
Panachaiki FC
1.25
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.25
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.22
Kozani
1.19
Giouchtas
1.00
Panathinaikos II
0.94
Tilikratis
0.82
Aiolikos
0.75
Apollon Pontou
0.50
Olympiakos Piraeus II is 0.76 points worse than Kallithea in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kissamikos
1.93
Levadiakos
1.77
Kallithea
1.63
PAOK II
1.62
Larisa
1.60
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.50
Ionikos
1.43
Niki Volos
1.37
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.23
Iraklis 1908
1.09
Panachaiki FC
1.09
AEK Athens II
1.07
Ilioupoli
1.03
Kalamata
0.97
Kampaniakos Chalastra
0.94
Diagoras
0.91
Giouchtas
0.88
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.88
Aiolikos
0.84
Panathinaikos II
0.78
Kozani
0.78
Egaleo
0.78
Tilikratis
0.77
Apollon Pontou
0.55
Olympiakos Piraeus II is 0.13 goals worse than Kallithea in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Levadiakos
0.47
Kallithea
0.63
Larisa
0.87
Iraklis 1908
0.88
Kozani
0.91
Kissamikos
0.93
Egaleo
0.94
Ionikos
0.97
Kalamata
1.00
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.06
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.06
Diagoras
1.12
AEK Athens II
1.17
Niki Volos
1.17
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.27
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.28
Panachaiki FC
1.31
Giouchtas
1.34
PAOK II
1.38
Ilioupoli
1.40
Panathinaikos II
1.47
Aiolikos
1.59
Tilikratis
1.68
Apollon Pontou
2.05
Olympiakos Piraeus II is 0.43 goals worse than Kallithea in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.94
0.25
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.48
0.85
0.31
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
1.07
0.27
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.33
0.91
0.27
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.31
0.56
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.84
1.38
0.69
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.93
0.33
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.42
0.82
0.18
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kallithea · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Migouel Alfarela47%
Giannis Loukinas17%
Keelan Lebon15%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Pyry Soiri9%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin8%
Miguel Mellado7%
Roberts Uldriķis7%
Nikolaos Kenourgios5%
Mor Ndiaye4%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis4%
Javier Matilla4%
Demethryus3%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Josua Mejías0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Alessandro Mercati0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Triantafyllos Pasalidis46%
Josua Mejías38%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin33%
Alessandro Mercati30%
Georgios Vrakas27%
Miguel Mellado27%
Mor Ndiaye26%
Andreas Vasilogiannis25%
Andrei Moțoc25%
Javier Matilla23%
Elia Giani22%
Georgios Manthatis21%
François Régis Mughe20%
Nikolaos Kenourgios15%
Dimitrios Metaxas14%
Giannis Tsivelekidis14%
James McGarry12%
Samba Diba12%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Matěj Hanousek8%
Giannis Loukinas7%
Mathieu Valbuena6%
Pyry Soiri6%
Demethryus6%
Migouel Alfarela6%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mor Ndiaye13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Demethryus9%
Elia Giani9%
Andrei Moțoc8%
Javier Matilla8%
Keelan Lebon8%
Pyry Soiri6%
Josua Mejías4%
Georgios Manthatis4%
Giannis Loukinas3%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Migouel Alfarela29%
Roberts Uldriķis20%
Giannis Loukinas14%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Andreas Vasilogiannis8%
Demethryus6%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Mathieu Valbuena3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Javier Matilla0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Josua Mejías0%
Mor Ndiaye0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (24)
€16m
KAL (28)
€11m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ILI (31)
€4m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
AP (16)
€2m
Olympiakos Piraeus II's squad is €1m less valuable than Kallithea's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (11)
€5m
KAL (8)
€4m
EGA (19)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
Olympiakos Piraeus II and Kallithea have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
KAL (6)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
Olympiakos Piraeus II and Kallithea have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
KAL (14)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
MN (15)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Olympiakos Piraeus II's defence is €1m less valuable than Kallithea's (€2m vs €3m).
Greece: Super League 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levadiakos
Larisa
Kissamikos
PAOK II
Ionikos
Ilioupoli
Iraklis 1908
Egaleo
Diagoras
Niki Volos
Makedonikos Neapolis
Panachaiki FC
Kampaniakos Chalastra
Anagennisi Karditsas
Kalamata
AEK Athens II
Kozani
Giouchtas
Panathinaikos II
Aiolikos
Tilikratis
Apollon Pontou
Almopos