The model favours an away win, with a 58 % chance for K. Lierse S.K. to come out on top, a 25 % draw probability, and a 17 % chance for Olympic Charleroi to triumph. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.1 % probability. Olympic Charleroi, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 2.0, while K. Lierse S.K., on the road against a weaker opponent, nets 1.0 and concedes 1.0 on average. The model’s selections include a 91.5 % chance of over 19.5 fouls, an 82.8 % chance of over 21.5 fouls, an 82.6 % chance of over 2.5 cards, a 77.8 % chance of under 11.5 corners, a 74.4 % chance of over 1.5 (missed), a 73.5 % chance of under 3.5 (hit), a 70.4 % chance of over 23.5 fouls, and a 70.4 % chance of under 5.5 cards. Olympic Charleroi’s recent five-game losing streak and a 0-5 loss to RSC Anderlecht II underline their struggles, whereas K. Lierse S.K. has just secured a win, 2-1 over Patro Eisden, giving them a confidence boost.
Results analysis
The match ended 0-1, confirming the model’s pick of an away win with a 58 % probability. Olympic Charleroi, after five consecutive defeats, could not break their slump, while K. Lierse S.K., riding a win, capitalised on their home-away form advantage. The model’s favourite was right, and the result matched the 58 % expectation. The Over 1.5 selection, at 74.4 %, missed as the game produced only one goal, whereas the Under 3.5 pick, with 73.5 % confidence, hit correctly. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the overall call and the two selections delivered a balanced, accurate post-match assessment.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympic Charleroi win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. win✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympic Charleroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.00
0.60
2.13
1.40
1.87
vs Stronger (28)
0.96
1.89
0.50
2.00
1.43
1.79
vs Similar (2)
1.50
3.50
2.00
4.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
K. Lierse S.K.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
1.29
1.43
1.12
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
1.86
2.14
2.33
2.33
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.15
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympic Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
0-1 ✓
11.9%
0-2
11.4%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
5.7%
1-0
5.2%
Olympic Charleroi goals ↓
K. Lierse S.K. goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
12%
11%
6.7%
2.9%
1
5.2%
12%
9.7%
5.7%
2.5%
2
2.7%
4.7%
4.1%
2.4%
1.1%
3
0.8%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympic Charleroi goals (down), columns = K. Lierse S.K. goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SK Beveren
2.75
Kortrijk
2.06
Beerschot VA
2.00
Liège
1.66
Lommel United
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
RWDM
1.12
Francs Borains
1.09
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Club Brugge II
0.66
Olympic Charleroi
0.50
Olympic Charleroi is 0.69 points worse than K. Lierse S.K. in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SK Beveren
2.31
Lommel United
1.84
Kortrijk
1.81
Beerschot VA
1.62
RWDM
1.56
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Liège
1.38
Patro Eisden
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KAA Gent II
1.31
KRC Genk II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Francs Borains
1.03
Club Brugge II
1.03
Olympic Charleroi
0.81
Olympic Charleroi is 0.28 goals worse than K. Lierse S.K. in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Beveren
0.72
Beerschot VA
0.97
Kortrijk
1.06
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Lommel United
1.44
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
RWDM
1.69
Club Brugge II
1.72
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Olympic Charleroi
2.12
Olympic Charleroi is 0.81 goals worse than K. Lierse S.K. in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
SK Beveren
56%
Lommel United
55%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Kortrijk
53%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
Olympic Charleroi
48%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
RWDM
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
Olympic Charleroi is 1.1 percentage points better than K. Lierse S.K. in terms of average possession (48% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olympic Charleroi
For 4.8 · Against 6.2 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
K. Lierse S.K.
For 3.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 12.4 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Olympic Charleroi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
9.7
8.7
10.6
2.4
2.5
2.4
24.4
24.9
23.9
vs Stronger (34)
10.0
9.4
10.6
2.4
2.3
2.6
24.4
25.0
23.9
vs Similar (2)
2.0
2.0
-
2.5
5.0
0.0
24.0
24.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
45%
73%
33%
35%
32%
64%
64%
64%
% under line
41%
55%
27%
67%
65%
68%
36%
36%
36%
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
K. Lierse S.K.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.3
4.7
4.3
5.0
27.3
26.6
28.0
vs Stronger (11)
9.7
10.0
9.2
5.1
5.7
4.4
28.7
29.7
27.2
vs Similar (35)
9.1
9.2
9.1
4.6
4.3
4.8
27.1
26.5
27.7
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
5.0
11.0
4.0
0.5
7.5
24.0
9.0
31.5
% over line
49%
40%
57%
64%
52%
74%
83%
75%
90%
% under line
51%
60%
43%
36%
48%
26%
17%
25%
10%
This opponent (Olympic Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.7
Kortrijk
10.2
KRC Genk II
10.2
Beerschot VA
10.2
SK Beveren
9.9
RSC Anderlecht II
9.8
Francs Borains
9.7
RWDM
9.7
Olympic Charleroi
9.7
KAA Gent II
9.5
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
Lommel United
9.1
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Patro Eisden
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
Liège
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
SK Beveren
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.6
Kortrijk
4.5
RWDM
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
Lommel United
4.1
Olympic Charleroi
4.0
KAA Gent II
3.9
KRC Genk II
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.3
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.5
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.5
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
25.3
RWDM
24.8
Lommel United
24.8
Olympic Charleroi
24.4
SK Beveren
24.0
Beerschot VA
23.7
Kortrijk
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.5%
Under 9.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.7%
Under 3.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.8%
Under 21.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympic Charleroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.14
0.93
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (28)
0.32
0.82
0.15
0.92
0.47
0.73
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
K. Lierse S.K.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.43
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.14
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.35
0.89
0.22
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympic Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympic Charleroi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympic Charleroi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympic Charleroi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympic Charleroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.27
0.29
1.29
0.81
1.25
vs Stronger (28)
0.54
1.14
0.15
1.15
0.87
1.13
vs Similar (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
K. Lierse S.K.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.11
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympic Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympic Charleroi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympic Charleroi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympic Charleroi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
SK Beveren
Kortrijk
Beerschot VA
Lommel United
Liège
Patro Eisden
AS Eupen
Lokeren-Temse
KAA Gent II
RWDM
Seraing United
Francs Borains
RSC Anderlecht II
KRC Genk II
Club Brugge II