In the Belarus 1. Division, Orsha is set to face BATE II on August 21. Recent form suggests Orsha is coming off a defeat, while BATE II is recovering from four consecutive defeats, albeit with a recent win. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and the most likely outcome being 3 goals.
Orsha has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.08 goals while conceding 2.38. In contrast, BATE II has excelled on the road, scoring 3.0 goals per match against weaker opponents while conceding 1.5. The model's selection is the over 1.5 goals, with an 84% chance of occurrence.
The model predicts a home win, with a 39% probability, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 35%. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.4% probability. Orsha has a 39% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 35% chance of losing to BATE II. The model also selects the over 1.5 goals (84%), and the suggested picks are the over 1.5 goals (84%), with no edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Orsha, failed to deliver, as BATE II snatched a 1-2 away victory, extending their two-game winning run. The model had tipped a home win with a 39 % probability, but that call was wrong. The final score matched the most likely 1-2 outcome, with 8.6 % confidence, and the total of three goals fell within the expected 3.2. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (98.3 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 %), Under 6.5 (95.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (91.2 %), Under 5.5 (89.4 %) and Under 2.5 HT goals (87.8 %). The match delivered a tidy, low-scoring affair, with the under-goals selections proving accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orsha win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BATE II win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orsha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.67
1.12
2.35
1.00
3.08
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
2.71
1.25
2.25
0.83
3.33
vs Similar (16)
1.06
2.62
1.00
2.44
1.14
2.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BATE II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.70
2.29
1.50
1.44
1.88
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.83
1.91
1.82
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
1.40
4.50
0.50
2.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.1%
Under 2.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2 ✓
8.1%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.6%
2-0
5.5%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
5.1%
Orsha goals ↓
BATE II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
2.6%
1.0%
1
5.6%
11%
8.1%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.6%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.0%
4.7%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.2%
1.9%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = BATE II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Orsha is 0.38 points better than BATE II in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Orsha is 0.12 goals worse than BATE II in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Orsha is 0.25 goals better than BATE II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Orsha or Draw✗ Miss
64.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
35%
covers Orsha + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha or BATE II✓ Hit
74.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
35%
covers Orsha + BATE II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BATE II✓ Hit
60.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
35%
covers Draw + BATE II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Orsha over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Orsha, so a minus line means Orsha give that many goals of a start and BATE II receive them. At -1, Orsha must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Orsha win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Orsha)Actual: BATE II
Orsha -2
8.4%
Draw -2
12.0%
BATE II +2
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Orsha)Actual: BATE II
Orsha -1
20.4%
Draw -1
18.8%
BATE II +1
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Orsha)Actual: Draw
Orsha +1
64.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
BATE II -1
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Orsha)Actual: Orsha
Orsha +2
82.3%
Draw +2
10.8%
BATE II -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orsha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.47
1.00
0.54
1.31
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.93
0.62
0.88
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
1.31
0.33
1.11
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BATE II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.86
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
1.00
0.64
1.09
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.00
0.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
Under 0.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.3%
Under 1.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
Under 2.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orsha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.53
0.65
1.35
0.46
1.77
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.79
0.62
1.38
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (16)
0.62
1.31
0.67
1.33
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BATE II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.50
0.64
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.83
1.27
0.73
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.80
2.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Orsha and BATE II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Orsha and BATE II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Orsha and BATE II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Orsha and BATE II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II