Orsha’s recent form shows a win, but their home record against stronger teams remains fragile, averaging 1.25 goals scored and conceding 2.12. Niva, meanwhile, has been prolific on the road, scoring 3.25 goals and conceding only 0.5 against weaker opponents, and they just finished a 6-0 triumph. This contrast explains why the model rates an away win as the clear favourite, with a 65% chance, a draw at 18% and a home win at 17%. The expected total is 4.1 goals, and the most likely outcome is a 1-2 scoreline for Niva, which carries an 8.5% probability. The model also predicts a 6+ total, with a 23% chance. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 7.5 (94.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (93.3%), Away +2 handicap (92.8%), Over 1.5 (92.1%), Under 6.5 (88.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (83.9%) and Draw or Away (83.1%). These selections reflect the high likelihood of a modest scoring game dominated by Niva’s attacking strength.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orsha win
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva win
64.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orsha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.63
1.06
2.53
1.08
2.77
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
2.46
1.25
2.12
0.80
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
2.76
0.89
2.89
1.25
2.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.67
2.13
1.60
2.20
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.96
1.83
1.75
1.82
2.18
vs Weaker (7)
3.29
0.71
3.33
1.00
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.1%
Under 1.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.4%
Under 2.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.3%
Under 3.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.4%
No
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.5%
1-3
7.7%
1-1
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.6%
2-3
5.3%
1-4
5.2%
Orsha goals ↓
Niva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
3.9%
6.2%
5.6%
3.8%
1
1.7%
6.9%
8.5%
7.7%
5.2%
2
1.6%
4.3%
5.9%
5.3%
3.6%
3
0.7%
2.0%
2.7%
2.4%
1.6%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Niva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Orsha is 1.32 points worse than Niva in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 2.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Orsha is 1.89 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 3.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Orsha is 0.73 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Orsha or Draw
35.1%
Avg Implied -
17%
18%
65%
covers Orsha + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha or Niva
81.8%
Avg Implied -
17%
18%
65%
covers Orsha + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Niva
83.1%
Avg Implied -
17%
18%
65%
covers Draw + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Orsha over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5
Over
93.3%
Under
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 3.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Orsha, so a minus line means Orsha give that many goals of a start and Niva receive them. At -1, Orsha must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Orsha win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Orsha)
Orsha -2
2.4%
Draw -2
4.8%
Niva +2
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Orsha)
Orsha -1
7.2%
Draw -1
9.7%
Niva +1
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Orsha)
Orsha +1
35.1%
Draw +1
19.7%
Niva -1
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Orsha)
Orsha +2
54.8%
Draw +2
18.4%
Niva -2
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orsha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.20
0.47
1.06
0.54
1.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.75
0.88
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.41
1.35
0.22
1.22
0.62
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
0.93
0.67
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.09
0.83
0.75
0.91
1.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orsha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.43
0.59
1.47
0.54
1.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.46
0.50
1.25
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.41
0.67
1.67
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.20
0.93
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.87
1.00
1.00
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Orsha and Niva have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Orsha and Niva have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Orsha and Niva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Orsha and Niva have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II