The model favours an away win for Ostrovets FC, with a 52% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 23% chance of an Orsha win. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, at 11.3%. Orsha, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.11 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. Ostrovets, on the road, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Under 7.5 at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.5%, Under 6.5 at 96%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.3%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.8%. Orsha’s recent form shows a 2-game losing streak, while Ostrovets comes off a 2-game winning run.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orsha win
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC win
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orsha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.63
1.06
2.53
1.08
2.77
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
2.46
1.25
2.12
0.80
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
2.76
0.89
2.89
1.25
2.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.40
1.73
1.67
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.50
1.67
1.92
1.42
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.80
2.00
0.67
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.0%
0-1
7.4%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.5%
Orsha goals ↓
Ostrovets FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
7.4%
8.0%
5.0%
2.4%
1
4.4%
11%
9.7%
6.1%
2.9%
2
3.3%
6.2%
5.9%
3.7%
1.8%
3
1.3%
2.5%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Ostrovets FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Orsha is 0.46 points worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Orsha is 0.04 goals worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Orsha is 0.45 goals worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Orsha or Draw
47.8%
Avg Implied -
23%
24%
52%
covers Orsha + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha or Ostrovets FC
75.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
24%
52%
covers Orsha + Ostrovets FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ostrovets FC
76.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
24%
52%
covers Draw + Ostrovets FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Orsha over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5
Over
85.0%
Under
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 3.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Orsha, so a minus line means Orsha give that many goals of a start and Ostrovets FC receive them. At -1, Orsha must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Orsha win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Orsha)
Orsha -2
3.1%
Draw -2
6.7%
Ostrovets FC +2
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Orsha)
Orsha -1
9.8%
Draw -1
13.6%
Ostrovets FC +1
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Orsha)
Orsha +1
47.8%
Draw +1
21.7%
Ostrovets FC -1
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Orsha)
Orsha +2
69.5%
Draw +2
16.2%
Ostrovets FC -2
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orsha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.20
0.47
1.06
0.54
1.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.75
0.88
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.41
1.35
0.22
1.22
0.62
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.71
0.50
0.92
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.3%
Under 0.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.0%
Under 1.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.7%
Under 2.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orsha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.43
0.59
1.47
0.54
1.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.46
0.50
1.25
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.41
0.67
1.67
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.79
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.1%
Under 0.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.6%
Under 1.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.9%
Under 2.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Orsha and Ostrovets FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Orsha and Ostrovets FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Orsha and Ostrovets FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Orsha and Ostrovets FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →