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Orsha vs Slonim Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 3-0
Orsha
Orsha
Vs
52%
25%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Slonim
Slonim
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Orsha are tipped to win, with a 52% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of Slonim taking the win. The model expects an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance. Orsha, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Slonim, on the road, averages no goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, an 82.3% probability. The home win percentage is 52%, the draw percentage 25%, and the away win percentage 23%. The final score of the previous match was 3-0 in favour of Orsha.

Results analysis

The win extends Orsha’s recent run, and the model’s pick of a home win proved correct as the final score was 3-0. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 52% probability, and the model’s selection was right. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.3% chance, and it hit as the match produced three goals. The predicted most likely score of 2-0 at 23% did not materialise, but the overall outcome matched the forecast. Orsha’s form, coming off a win, and Slonim’s recent defeat set the stage for a decisive home victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orsha win✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slonim win✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W43W13L27L10W12L13L24L33D10WH·ABF08/11A·BUM17/11H·BEL23/11A·BAT29/03A·MIN05/04A·NIV13/04H·LID19/04A·OSI27/04H·LOK04/05A·UNI10/05
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.831.361.641.562.00
vs Stronger (16)1.311.501.441.561.141.43
vs Similar (14)1.642.211.201.801.892.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L01L00D21W10W13L13L20W00D13LA·FC 10/11A·ABF16/11H·BUM23/11A·BAR29/03H·GOM05/04A·VOL13/04H·OST18/04A·MIN26/04H·LID04/05A·LOK10/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.870.931.070.562.56
vs Stronger (27)0.702.000.831.250.602.60
vs Similar (3)1.000.671.500.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.1%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
Orsha goals ↓
Slonim goals →
01234
05.6%4.5%3.3%1.3%0.4%
17.6%11%6.2%2.5%0.7%
28.1%9.8%5.8%2.3%0.7%
35.1%6.1%3.7%1.5%0.4%
42.4%2.9%1.7%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Slonim goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
Orsha is 0.13 points better than Slonim in terms of average points per game (0.74 vs 0.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
Orsha is 0.33 goals better than Slonim in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.91).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
Orsha is 0.40 goals worse than Slonim in terms of goals conceded per game (2.74 vs 2.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D11D03L00D01L03L01L22D00DH·ABF08/11A·BUM17/11H·BEL23/11A·BAT29/03A·MIN05/04A·NIV13/04H·LID19/04A·OSI27/04H·LOK04/05A·UNI10/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.710.930.380.69
vs Stronger (16)0.560.690.780.780.290.57
vs Similar (14)0.500.930.601.200.440.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SlonimSlonim

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D00D11D00D12L01L10W00D10WA·FC 10/11A·ABF16/11H·BUM23/11A·BAR29/03H·GOM05/04A·VOL13/04H·OST18/04A·MIN26/04H·LID04/05A·LOK10/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.210.290.441.06
vs Stronger (27)0.370.740.250.330.471.07
vs Similar (3)0.000.330.000.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W32W02L24L10W11D10W23L11D10WH·ABF08/11A·BUM17/11H·BEL23/11A·BAT29/03A·MIN05/04A·NIV13/04H·LID19/04A·OSI27/04H·LOK04/05A·UNI10/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.030.640.711.191.31
vs Stronger (16)0.750.810.670.780.860.86
vs Similar (14)1.141.290.600.601.441.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SlonimSlonim

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L00D10W10W01L12L10W00D03LA·FC 10/11A·ABF16/11H·BUM23/11A·BAR29/03H·GOM05/04A·VOL13/04H·OST18/04A·MIN26/04H·LID04/05A·LOK10/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.170.710.790.121.50
vs Stronger (27)0.331.260.580.920.131.53
vs Similar (3)1.000.331.500.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
ORS wins
0
Draws
4
SLO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Orsha vs Slonim · H/A from ORS
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/24ASlonim Vs ORS2-0
07/07/24HORS Vs Slonim2-0
09/09/23ASlonim Vs ORS2-1
07/05/23HORS Vs Slonim1-2
12/11/22HORS Vs Slonim4-0
23/07/22ASlonim Vs ORS3-2

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/25AUni Minsk Vs ORS0-1
04/05/25HORS Vs Lokomotiv Gomel3-3
27/04/25AOsipovichy Vs ORS4-2
19/04/25HORS Vs Lida1-3
13/04/25ANiva Vs ORS2-1
05/04/25AMinsk II Vs ORS0-1
29/03/25ABATE II Vs ORS7-2
23/11/24HORS Vs Belshina1-3
17/11/24ABumprom Vs ORS3-4
08/11/24HORS Vs ABFF U172-0

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/25ALokomotiv Gomel Vs SLO3-1
04/05/25HSLO Vs Lida0-0
26/04/25AMinsk II Vs SLO0-2
18/04/25HSLO Vs Ostrovets FC1-3
13/04/25AVolna Vs SLO3-1
05/04/25HSLO Vs Gomel II1-0
29/03/25ABaranovichi Vs SLO1-2
23/11/24HSLO Vs Bumprom0-0
16/11/24AABFF U17 Vs SLO1-0
10/11/24AFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk Vs SLO6-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.14
HomeLWLLD1.17
AwayLWLLW1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%30%26%
AVG goals3.303.173.41
Over 1.5 %82%78%85%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %40%39%41%
Scored1.461.521.41
Conceded1.841.652.00
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet24%26%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Slonim
Slonim
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL0.82
HomeWDWLD1.00
AwayLWLWL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%24%16%
AVG goals2.722.602.84
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored0.800.920.68
Conceded1.921.682.16
BTTS40%44%36%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BaranovichiBaranovichi3474
68%
2.2
7529+46
3.1
85%
56%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3467
59%
2.0
5937+22
2.8
85%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.1
-
3Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3464
53%
1.9
5634+22
2.6
68%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
4BelshinaBelshina3463
56%
1.9
6440+24
3.1
85%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
5LidaLida3459
56%
1.7
7444+30
3.5
85%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0102.21.3
-
6BumpromBumprom3459
47%
1.7
5636+20
2.7
85%
44%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.1
-
7NivaNiva3455
44%
1.6
6856+12
3.6
85%
68%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.01.6
-
8BATE IIBATE II3453
44%
1.6
7052+18
3.6
88%
65%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
9Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3451
47%
1.5
5648+8
3.1
82%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.4
-
10Minsk IIMinsk II3451
44%
1.5
4947+2
2.8
68%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
11VolnaVolna3448
38%
1.4
6555+10
3.5
91%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.6
-
12ABFF U19ABFF U193442
32%
1.2
4449-5
2.7
76%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
13Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3440
29%
1.2
3440-6
2.2
65%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.01.2
-
14Uni MinskUni Minsk3436
29%
1.1
5472-18
3.7
94%
76%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.62.1
-
15Gomel IIGomel II3428
24%
0.8
3483-49
3.4
79%
68%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.4
-
16OrshaOrsha3425
21%
0.7
4293-51
4.0
94%
79%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.7
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy3321
15%
0.6
3977-38
3.5
97%
70%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.3
-
18SlonimSlonim3320
18%
0.6
3077-47
3.2
91%
70%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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